HURRICANE SEASON 2008

                           Up to nine hurricanes possible in 2008 Atlantic hurricane season





by Juan Castro Olivera
Fri May 30, 2008
 
MIAMI (AFP) - The Miami-based National Hurricane Center on Thursday forecast an especially active 2008 weather season, saying there could be up to nine hurricanes and 12 tropical storms in the Atlantic region.
 
The meteorologists forecast that during the hurricane season -- which officially starts Sunday and runs through the end of November -- there will be between six and 12 tropical storms powerful enough to be named, and between six and nine hurricanes.

Of those, five could reach destructive levels, meaning hurricanes of Category Three or above on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale, with Category Five being the most destructive.

The Hurricane Center collects information on hurricanes from different sources, including special "hurricane hunter" aircraft equipped with high-tech instruments that fly over the hurricane collecting data.

The chance of being struck by a hurricane in places like Florida triggers an immense public information awareness campaign each year, with authorities urging citizens to strengthen their homes, purchase emergency kits and learn about regional evacuation plans. There is even a training program on how to save pets in case of an emergency.

Experts say most people living in hurricane-prone areas of the US coastline are ill-prepared for a disaster.

"The day something bad happens isn't the day to start preparing for it," said Mark Brennan, a sociologist with University of Florida's Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

Brennan called on authorities to train volunteers to work in areas that could be hit by hurricanes. "There are still plenty of volunteer gaps that need to be filled," he said.

The most hurricane-prone US region is the southeastern coastline, running from the states of North Carolina to Texas. The region is home to some 35 million people, according to the US Census Bureau.

Despite the risks, during the last half century more than 25 million people moved to these areas, with the majority -- 15 million -- living in Florida, according to Census Bureau figures.

In early April a University of Colorado team led by William Gray, who has been in the hurricane predicting business for 25 years, forecast that there would be 15 tropical storms during the season, eight of which will hit hurricane strength and four of which would be major.

"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the US coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Phil Klotzbach, a scientist on Gray's team.

Klotzbach predicted a "very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons."

In 2004 and 2005 hurricanes Frances, Jeanna and Katrina ripped through the Caribbean and hit the US coast, leaving a trail of destruction and death in its path.

The 2007 season was milder than had been forecast, but was still devastating.

Two hurricanes with top wind speeds of more than 249 kilometers (150 miles) an hour hit. In August Hurricane Dean killed at least 29 people as it tore through the Caribbean and parts of Mexico, and a month later Hurricane Felix left 150 people dead and major devastation as it slammed Nicaragua's Caribbean coast.

Warmer seas accounted for 40 percent of a dramatic surge in hurricanes from the mid-1990s, according to a study released in January by the British journal Nature.

Some of the 21 names that would be used for tropical storms this year include Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Gustav, Ike, Laura, Nana, Paloma, Rene, Teddy and Vicky.