HURRICANE SEASON 2008

[Bianca]

                                      FLORIDIANS AND ALL HURRICANE AREA MEMBERS





It's almost June 1st, let us hope for the best!!!


But, if needed, please let us know you are OK, at the earliest opportunity.  PLEASE!




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Bianca]

                           Up to nine hurricanes possible in 2008 Atlantic hurricane season





by Juan Castro Olivera
Fri May 30, 2008
 
MIAMI (AFP) - The Miami-based National Hurricane Center on Thursday forecast an especially active 2008 weather season, saying there could be up to nine hurricanes and 12 tropical storms in the Atlantic region.
 
The meteorologists forecast that during the hurricane season -- which officially starts Sunday and runs through the end of November -- there will be between six and 12 tropical storms powerful enough to be named, and between six and nine hurricanes.

Of those, five could reach destructive levels, meaning hurricanes of Category Three or above on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale, with Category Five being the most destructive.

The Hurricane Center collects information on hurricanes from different sources, including special "hurricane hunter" aircraft equipped with high-tech instruments that fly over the hurricane collecting data.

The chance of being struck by a hurricane in places like Florida triggers an immense public information awareness campaign each year, with authorities urging citizens to strengthen their homes, purchase emergency kits and learn about regional evacuation plans. There is even a training program on how to save pets in case of an emergency.

Experts say most people living in hurricane-prone areas of the US coastline are ill-prepared for a disaster.

"The day something bad happens isn't the day to start preparing for it," said Mark Brennan, a sociologist with University of Florida's Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

Brennan called on authorities to train volunteers to work in areas that could be hit by hurricanes. "There are still plenty of volunteer gaps that need to be filled," he said.

The most hurricane-prone US region is the southeastern coastline, running from the states of North Carolina to Texas. The region is home to some 35 million people, according to the US Census Bureau.

Despite the risks, during the last half century more than 25 million people moved to these areas, with the majority -- 15 million -- living in Florida, according to Census Bureau figures.

In early April a University of Colorado team led by William Gray, who has been in the hurricane predicting business for 25 years, forecast that there would be 15 tropical storms during the season, eight of which will hit hurricane strength and four of which would be major.

"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the US coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Phil Klotzbach, a scientist on Gray's team.

Klotzbach predicted a "very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons."

In 2004 and 2005 hurricanes Frances, Jeanna and Katrina ripped through the Caribbean and hit the US coast, leaving a trail of destruction and death in its path.

The 2007 season was milder than had been forecast, but was still devastating.

Two hurricanes with top wind speeds of more than 249 kilometers (150 miles) an hour hit. In August Hurricane Dean killed at least 29 people as it tore through the Caribbean and parts of Mexico, and a month later Hurricane Felix left 150 people dead and major devastation as it slammed Nicaragua's Caribbean coast.

Warmer seas accounted for 40 percent of a dramatic surge in hurricanes from the mid-1990s, according to a study released in January by the British journal Nature.

Some of the 21 names that would be used for tropical storms this year include Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Gustav, Ike, Laura, Nana, Paloma, Rene, Teddy and Vicky.

[Bianca]

PLEASE ADD YOUR NAME AND AREA:






FLORIDA


Cleasterwood
Bianca

[Bianca]

                                        Hurricane Monitoring to Improve in 2008





Andrea Thompson
Senior Writer
LiveScience.com
mAY 30, 2008
 
Batten down the hatches! This year's season, which kicks off on Sunday, is expected to be another busy one, according to forecasters.
 
But the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is prepared: Forecasters are implementing a new plan to continually monitor a storm's strength in the hours before it makes landfall with the hopes of giving coastal communities better warnings.


In 2004, Hurricane Charley rapidly intensified from a Category 2 to a Category 4 storm - winds jumped from 110 mph (175 kilometers per hour) to 145 mph (235 kph) - in the six hours before it slammed into Florida's southwest coast, causing widespread destruction in the unprepared communities. Charley killed 10 people in the United States and caused an estimated 14 billion dollars in damages, according to the NHC, some of which an earlier warning might have prevented.


To monitor the intensity of incoming storms, the NHC dispatches planes that drop instrument packages into the storm to get data on its wind speeds and pressure. But logistically these aircraft can take readings no more than every hour or two, which means that any sudden drop in pressure (the mark of an intensifying storm) and increase in winds may be difficult to anticipate.


So researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Co., and the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C., devised a way to use the Doppler radar network established along the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines to scan a storm and provide information on its winds and pressure every six minutes.


Usually, no single radar could estimate the winds or pressure, and the radars are spaced too far apart to monitor a storm. But the researchers devised a technique, dubbed VORTRAC (Vortex Objective Radar Tracking and Circulation), where data from the closest radar to the storm can be combined with general knowledge of hurricane structure to map out a storm's winds. The pressure can then be inferred from this information.


Researchers tested out the technique retroactively on Hurricane Charley and found that "it can capture sudden intensity changes in potentially dangerous hurricanes in the critical time period when these storms are nearing land," said project team member Michael Bell of NCAR.


The NHC tested out the technique during last year's season and are ready to begin using it full-time.


"VORTRAC will enable hurricane specialists, for the first time, to continually monitor the trend in central pressure as a dangerous storm nears land," said project team member Wen-Chau Lee of NCAR.


The improved predictions this technique could help generate may be good news as forecasters currently expect eight hurricanes to form in the Atlantic basin this season, with four of those becoming major storms (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).


 

Video: Learn What Fuels Hurricanes

Quiz: Test Your Hurricane Knowledge

2008 Hurricane Guide

Original Story: Hurricane Monitoring to Improve in 2008



Visit LiveScience.com for more daily news, views and scientific inquiry with an original, provocative point of view. LiveScience reports amazing, real world breakthroughs, made simple and stimulating for people on the go. Check out our collection of Science, Animal and Dinosaur Pictures, Science Videos, Hot Topics, Trivia, Top 10s, Voting, Amazing Images, Reader Favorites, and more. Get cool gadgets at the new LiveScience Store, sign up for our free daily email newsletter and check out our RSS feeds today!


http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20080530/sc_livescience/hurricanemonitoringtoimprovein2008;_ylt=AsmeeJLjXfvtjpfLsiqzO.ys0NUE

[Bianca]

This image provided by NOAA shows Tropical Storm Bertha
taken at 7 p.m. EDT July 3, 2008.

At 11 p.m. EDT Thursday, Bertha, The second named storm
of the year, was centered 185 miles west-southwest of the
southernmost Cape Verde Islands moving toward the west at
about 14 mph, and forecasters expect that to continue for
the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph.

Some gradual strengthening was forecast during the next day
or two.

The first named storm this year, Arthur, formed in the Atlantic
the day before the season officially started June 1 and soaked
the Yucatan Peninsula.
(AP Photo/NOAA)
Photo Tools











                        MIAMI - Tropical Storm Bertha continues to speed across the Atlantic Ocean.


 
jULY 5, 2008

Friday, Bertha was centered about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It is expected to be about halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles by Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with some higher gusting. The storm could gradually strengthen by Sunday.

It's still too early to say if or where Bertha will hit land.

The first named storm this year, Arthur, formed in the Atlantic the day before the season officially started June 1 and soaked the Yucatan Peninsula.

[Bianca]

                                    Tropical Storm Bertha approaches warmer waters






Sun Jul 6, 2008
 
MIAMI - Tropical Storm Bertha is approaching warmer waters and is likely to strengthen during the next couple of days.
 
At 5 a.m. EDT Sunday, Bertha was centered about 1,310 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with some higher gusting. Forecasters say Bertha is expected to strengthen during the next few days and could become the season's first hurricane.

The storm is moving toward the west. It's still too early to say if or where Bertha will hit land.

The first named storm this year, Arthur, formed in the Atlantic the day before the season officially started June 1 and soaked the Yucatan Peninsula.

[Bianca]

                                             Atlantic storm Bertha may soon turn to hurricane






By Michael Connor
Sun Jul 6, 2006
 
MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Bertha, moving briskly across open ocean waters, may strengthen into the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic storm season sometime during the next 48 hours, U.S. weather forecasters said on Sunday.
 
Bertha, which formed on Thursday near the Cape Verde islands off Africa, had maximum sustained winds approaching 50 miles per hour (85 km per hour) at 11 a.m. EDT and was heading west at 21 mph (33 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

"Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Bertha could become a hurricane during that time," the forecasters said in an advisory.

Storms are judged to be hurricanes when their wind speed reaches at least 74 mph (119 kph).

Bertha is nowhere near land, and the hurricane center's tracking forecasts have the storm staying at sea and taking a general west-northwest route over the next five days. The storm's speed was expected to ease during the next two days.

"It is much too early to determine if Bertha will eventually affect any land areas," the forecasters said.

The storm's center was near latitude 17.4 north and longitude 45.1 west, or about 1,185 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Bertha is the second tropical storm of what has been predicted to be an above-average storm season in the Atlantic and Caribbean.

Energy markets closely monitor tropical storms in the Atlantic because of the potential for them to threaten oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico. The 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, which included Katrina, the hurricane that swamped New Orleans, left dozens of oil rigs toppled or damaged and sent crude prices to what were then record highs.

The Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season runs from June 1 to the end of November, with August and September usually the busiest months.

(Editing by David Wiessler)

[Bianca]

                                          Bertha becomes 1st hurricane of Atlantic season



 
JULY 7, 2008

MIAMI - Tropical storm Bertha has strengthened to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.
 
 
As of 5 a.m. EDT Monday, Hurricane Bertha was about 845 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say it is too early to say if or where the storm will hit land.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to speeds of 75 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

Bertha is headed west-northwest at about 17 mph.

The first named storm this year, Arthur, formed in the Atlantic the day before the season officially started June 1 and soaked the Yucatan Peninsula

[Bianca]

                                     Bertha strengthens, no threat to Gulf of Mexico

 


July 7, 2008

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hurricane Bertha strengthened over the central Atlantic Ocean Monday morning and could reach Category 2 strength later in the day, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory.
 
Most weather models forecast the storm would remain out of the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico for at least the next five days as it heads toward Bermuda.

The center of Bertha, which strengthened into a hurricane Monday morning, was located about 775 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, which include the Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Saint Martin, Saint Kitts, Nevis, Barbuda, Antigua, Montserrat and Guadeloupe.

Bertha was moving west-northwest at about 15 miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph.

The NHC forecast Bertha would strengthen into Category 2 hurricane, with winds of 96-110 mph, in about 12 hours, before weakening back into a Category 1 hurricane in about two days.

Energy traders watch for storms that could enter the Gulf of Mexico and threaten U.S. oil and gas production facilities.

Commodities traders also watch storms that could hit agriculture crops like citrus and cotton in Florida and other states along the Gulf Coast.

While a hurricane does not form in the Atlantic every year in July, the NHC noted another Hurricane Bertha formed in 1996 which, coincidentally, also happened on July 7.

The NHC will issue another advisory at 5 p.m. EDT.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Walter Bagley)

[Bianca]

                                     Hurricane Bertha could strengthen in coming days





Wed Jul 9, 2008

MIAMI - Forecasters say Hurricane Bertha could become slightly stronger in the next couple of days as it heads toward Bermuda.
 
As of about 5 a.m. EDT Wednesday, the center of the storm was about 560 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and about 790 miles southeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are about 75 mph with some higher gusting. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say it wouldn't be surprising if the storm re-strengthened in the next 48 hours.

The Atlantic season's first hurricane is traveling northwest at about 10 mph.

Bertha is expected to continue its path toward Bermuda. Forecasters have been urging people on the island to monitor the storm's progress.

It's unknown if or when the hurricane will make landfall.

[Bianca]

                                  Hurricane Bertha churns northward in central Atlantic





Thu Jul 10, 2008
 
MIAMI (AFP) - Category-two Hurricane Bertha edged northward in the central Atlantic early Thursday posing a possible threat to Bermuda, the US National Hurricane Center said.

 
With sustained winds blowing at 165 kilometers (105 miles) per hour, at 5:00 am (0900 GMT) the first full hurricane of the 2008 season was located about 875 kilometers (545 miles) southeast of Bermuda.

The storm was moving in a northwesterly direction at 15 kilometers (nine miles) per hour and was expected to strengthen and turn in a more northerly direction in the next couple of days, the Miami-based NHC said.

Current projections show it passing well to the east of Bermuda on Sunday-Monday.

"It is still too early to determine the extent to which Bertha could impact Bermuda. Interests on that island should closely monitor the progress of Bertha during the next several days," the NHS said.

On Wednesday Bermuda's Emergency Measures Organization (EMO) urged travelers not to let the storm dampen vacation plans to the popular holiday isles.

"It is anticipated that at that time (Sunday), Hurricane Bertha will weaken and Bermuda will only experience tropical storm winds, in which case Bermuda's L.F. Wade International Airport will remain open for travelers," the EMO said.

[Bianca]

                                           Hurricane Bertha barrels towards Bermuda






Thu Jul 11, 2008
 
MIAMI (AFP) - Hurricane Bertha barreled steadily northwest towards the British islands of Bermuda Thursday, and could sweep over them in the next few days, the US National Hurricane Center said.
 
The first hurricane of the 2008 season, Bertha's maximum winds slowed to 90 miles per hour (150 k/h), weakening it to a Category One hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. But the Miami-based Center warned it could re-intensify.

Although still some 485 miles (785 kms) southeast of the islands, Bertha was moving towards Bermuda at a speed of nine miles an hour (15 k/h), and already causing heavy surf along the island's shores.

[Bianca]

                                     Hurricane Bertha sends heavy surf to Bermuda





Jul 11, 2008
 
MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Bertha weakened back into a Category 1 storm on Thursday as it churned its way toward the British colony of Bermuda, U.S. hurricane forecasters said.
 
The first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic storm season saw its top sustained winds decrease to near 85 miles per hour and it was about 425 miles southeast of the mid-Atlantic offshore financial center by 5 p.m. EDT, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Bertha was moving northwest near 10 mph and was expected to turn north and slow its forward speed as it approached Bermuda on Friday and Saturday.

Computer forecasting models suggested that atmospheric conditions could trap the storm near Bermuda for several days, while some models showed it jogging toward the island.

"The new track is closer to Bermuda than the previous track," the forecasters said.

It was too soon to determine how much the storm would affect Bermuda but residents were urged to pay close attention.

"Large swells and high surf have started to affect Bermuda. These conditions are expected to persist for the next few days," the center said.

Bertha surprised forecasters with the speed and vigor at which it strengthened into a "major" Category 3 hurricane on Monday, only to almost fizzle back into a tropical storm on Tuesday.

But warm waters and more favorable atmospheric wind conditions on Wednesday allowed the storm to gain traction again and reach the second level on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, the Miami-based Hurricane Center said.

It weakened again on Thursday but the hurricane center warned it could re-intensify in the next 24 hours.

Hurricanes of Category 3 and above are called "major" hurricanes and are the strongest and most destructive. Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005, was a monstrous Category 5 storm in the Gulf of Mexico before moving ashore as a Category 3.

Both the U.S. East Coast, and the Gulf of Mexico, where the United States produces a third of its domestic crude oil, are out of Bertha's firing line.

Bertha developed last week near the Cape Verde islands off Africa.

Its formation so far east so early in the season that began on June 1 and its explosive growth from a tropical storm into a major hurricane could be seen as harbingers of a busy summer.

Hurricane experts have predicted the six-month season, which rarely gets into high gear before August, would see an average or above-average number of storms, though nothing like record-busting 2005, when 28 formed.

(Reporting by Tom Brown and Jane Sutton)

[Bianca]

                                              Bermuda Expects Light Punch From Bertha




MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Bertha was nearly stationary Saturday but was expected to pick up speed and deal a glancing blow to Bermuda, the National Hurricane Center said.


 The Atlantic island's weather service issued a tropical storm warning Saturday morning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours.

As of 11 a.m. ET Saturday, the center of Bertha was about 210 miles southeast of Bermuda. Its maximum sustained winds were near 85 mph, with higher gusts, making it a Category 1 storm.

Bertha had slowed to a near-stop, but forecasters said it was expected to begin moving north at about 2 mph later Saturday and would continue doing so for the next couple of days.

"On this track, the center of Bertha is expected to slowly pass to the southeast and east of Bermuda, but the motion could occasionally be erratic," the hurricane center said.

Bertha's outer bands are expected to dump up to 2 inches of rain on Bermuda over the next few days. The storm already has caused large swells and high surf on the island.

Bertha's intensity has fluctuated. At its peak, it was a major Category 3 hurricane with top winds of 120 mph. Its wind speed dropped to 75 mph, barely hurricane strength, before picking up once again and reaching Category 2 intensity late Wednesday, with top sustained winds of 105 mph. But forecasters said Saturday little change in strength is forecast for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from Bertha's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles, forecasters said.

Bertha is the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic season. It formed July 3 off the coast of Africa near the southern Cape Verde Islands. It strengthened into a hurricane early Monday.

The first tropical storm of the season, Arthur, formed May 31 near the coast of Belize and dumped heavy rain on Central America and southern Mexico.

[Bianca]

                                    Bertha weakens to tropical storm near Bermuda
 




July 13, 2008

HAMILTON, Bermuda (Reuters) - Hurricane Bertha weakened back into a less-menacing tropical storm on Sunday after stalling for a day near the British colony of Bermuda, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
 
The top sustained winds of what had been the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic storm season slipped to near 65 miles per hour (100 km per hour), below the 74 mph (119 kph) threshold at which tropical storms are classified as hurricanes, the Miami-based hurricane center said.

Little change in strength was expected over the next 24 hours. The storm began inching its way northwest again at about 2 miles per hour (4 kph) early on Sunday, and forecasters said its center could pass closer to Bermuda, a wealthy mid-Atlantic offshore finance center, than indicated earlier.

At one point a "major" Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity, as Hurricane Katrina had been when it came ashore near New Orleans in 2005, Bertha weakened because of its lack of movement.

Its energy had churned up colder waters from beneath the sea surface, depriving it of the warm water that fuels tropical storms.

Bermuda, which is also a major tourist resort, has strict building codes and a tropical storm is unlikely to pose any significant threat to its 66,000 people.

Few of the shops in Hamilton's retail heart of Front Street had storm shutters up on Sunday and some public beaches were still open despite high storm-related surf.

Many islanders said they were looking forward to the arrival of Bertha, as it would bring some much-needed rain after a long drought. As of Friday the island has had just 1.3 inches of rain in six weeks, 20 percent below normal.

Oil markets had kept a wary eye on Bertha after it formed because of the potential of hurricanes to cause havoc among the oil rigs of the Gulf of Mexico. But the Gulf has not been in Bertha's track for many days.

By 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), Bertha was around 180 miles (290 km) southeast of Bermuda.

"The center of Bertha is expected to slowly pass not far to the southeast and east of Bermuda during the next day or so," the hurricane center said.

Hurricane experts have forecast that the 2008 Atlantic storm season will be average or above average. The long-term average is for 10 tropical storms to form between June 1 and the end of November, of which six become hurricanes.

Bertha formed near the Cape Verde Islands off Africa and its development that far east so early in the season is viewed by some hurricane experts as ominous. Storm activity does not usually get into high gear in the Atlantic until August.

On one Bermudian beach, 28-year-old English accountant Helen Grimwood took a more sanguine view of Bertha, however.

"I am quite excited and interested to see what it will be like," said Grimwood, who arrived in Bermuda just three days ago to start a new job.

"I am not worried about it," she said.



(Reporting by Michael Christie and Matthew Taylor; Editing by Tom Brown)