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Iran Really Is A Threat

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Majeston
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« on: March 16, 2007, 12:29:01 pm »

The following is an absolutely priceless exchange between Merlin and Mark McCarron from another board.
This exchange should not be lost for as we know AR is infamous for deleting posts;
closing topics;  vanishing identities;  and arbitrary censoring.


Mark J McCarron

Member
Member # 287
Rate Member     posted 03-04-2007 07:37                      
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The conflict with Al-qeada is going to continue until some form of formal talks are held.
This is not a winnable war, by either side.
Thus, at some point, someone is going to bite the bullet and offer to talk about what these guys want.
If they don't, this conflict will continue and major terrorist campaigns will be shifted to the US mainland.

quote:
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quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
There is no evidence of a weapons program. Iran's enrichment process does not violate international law. Even if they were to have a weapons program, that in itself, is not a violation of international law. Only the agressive use of such weapons would violate international law.
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Let's see... In order: Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. You went 0 for 4, or in percentage form 0%.
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hmmm....
Right then...
1. Show us the evidence for this nuclear weapons program.
2. Show this specific breaches of International law and I don't mean some ad-hoc resolutions by countries that enrich uranium themselves. Double standards don't count.
3. Again, the same for the weapons program. Double standards don't apply.
4. Show were the non-agressive development of a nuclear weapon, by a state, is illegal.
This should be interesting...
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Posts: 2104 | From: Derry, Northern Ireland | Registered: Dec 2000  |  Logged: 220.235.49.184 | 


Merl

Member
Member # 4913
Member Rated:
     posted 03-04-2007 13:37                      
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quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
The conflict with Al-qeada is going to continue until some form of formal talks are held.
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I disagree. Look at all of the "resistance organizations" world-wide that have ever evolved into political parties. Negotiation is never the answer to them. Disarmament, and conversion to a moderate message is the only thing that ever does. In the case, Al Qaeda in not moderate by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, what separates Al Qaeda from other bonafide organizations is its insistance upon using violence to achieve its goals. Even if every "white-skinned devil" left Islamic lands, they would then find others to exterminate at their pleasure... Just like they did with the Taliban; remember? They were killing their own people, not Americans.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
This is not a winnable war, by either side.
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You are certainly entitled to your opinion, however, I disagree. Because this organization is borne out of violence, steeps in it and proliferates it - there is really only 1 way to respond to it. Sit 'em down and talk to them about their issues? Nahh.... Kill them everywhere you find them and eliminate the reasons why they would gain followers.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Thus, at some point, someone is going to bite the bullet and offer to talk about what these guys want.
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I'm certain that this is already going on through intermediaries... Not going so well, so far.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
If they don't, this conflict will continue and major terrorist campaigns will be shifted to the US mainland.
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Again - entitled to your opinion. I believe that things are a bit different though. I won't bother explaining why - as it is only my opinion.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
hmmm.... Right then...
1. Show us the evidence for this nuclear weapons program.
2. Show this specific breaches of International law and I don't mean some ad-hoc resolutions by countries that enrich uranium themselves. Double standards don't count.
3. Again, the same for the weapons program. Double standards don't apply.
4. Show were the non-agressive development of a nuclear weapon, by a state, is illegal.
This should be interesting...
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Actually, this would be interesting, however, you are being far more literal than my original answer. Also, you place an arbitrary restraint on my answer. Unlike you, I do not agree that resolutions are ad-hoc or double-standards because they are applied by nuclear weapons states (NWS). Everyone has to adhere to the same inspections and guidelines in order to reap the benefits of the IAEA's assitance. If they don't like it - don't ask for it!
Anyway, in my reply, I will avoid referencing any U.N. sanctions (and their violation thereof) if it makes you feel better. I will also not reference other blogs or fourms - that makes me feel better. Keep in mind, the laws that are violated may not be the laws that you would think... You may not know this, but the IRS brought down the Mafia in the U.S., not the FBI. 
First, Iran is in violation of the NNPT that it voluntarily signed up for. There were a few countries that chose not to enlist, but Iran was not one of them. In fact, there was even a country that withdrew from it once they realized they were going to be in big trouble for violating it (N. Korea).
What the NNPT (NPT) says in short:
"...non-proliferation, disarmament, and the right to peacefully use nuclear technology."
Here's the rub, my friend: The "inalienable right" to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes brings with it the responsibility of inspections. These inspections are carried out by the IAEA. The sticky part is that, with (successful) inspections, there are "carrots" given to the nations that are seeking to advance their knowledge of 'peaceful nuclear power', but are not trying to go the extra yards toward weapons. They are given aid in the form of technological assitance, fissile material and access to international markets for equipment to develop their programs.
Keep in mind, this is a voluntary process - they can withdraw at any time... Just like N. Korea did. But you have to ask yourself, "Why would someone drop out?" or "Why wouldn't someone drop out if they were caught?" There are sinister reasons for both. In the case of N. Korea, it was because A.Q. Khan had already given them everything they needed to complete the cycle (on a rudimentary scale).
With Iran, the answer is as simple. They don't drop out because they haven't managed to get far enough on their own. At this point, since they are stuck, all they have is a 'weapon' of blackmail to use against the world.
The question really becomes, "Who's right?" Is Iran involved in a clandestine process? ALL EVIDENCE POINTS TO YES. Even their "friends", China, Russia and France agree that they are guilty of trying to militarize their program. The reasons are simple - THIS IS A VOLUNTARY PROGRAM, the inspectors are there to make sure that you are not militarizing your program or proliferating - THAT'S ALL! There would be no need to hide anything if you weren't doing anything to hide. It's a simple concept to grasp.
The fact that, in 2003 the IAEA found trace amounts of Highly enriched Uranium, Plutonium and Tritium during their routine inspections was bad, but the fact that appreciable amounts of materials (enriched) and waste products could not be accounted for was Very Bad. However, this did not trigger the world's outcry, the IAEA simply reported their findings, and the investigative services of the NWS were notified. The IAEA went back in to do a more thorough inspection, but did not cease assisting the Iranians with their "peaceful nuclear program". Evidence of A.Q. Khan's interaction with the Iranian military was uncovered in Pakistan. Almost simultaneously, the IAEA stumbled across information indicating that there were actually INCREASES in the Iranian program(s), and that they had been culling more and more yellowcake. This was completely contrary to the reports they were supplying to the IAEA,showing, they had been consistent in their non-refined, unenriched yellowcake mining. From here, the inspectors noted that the byproduct totals of uranium hexofloride (UF6), uranium oxide (Uo2), and metallic uranium being manufactured at Isfahan were not adding up to the total amount of cake being removed from Saghand. That's when they discovered site II. In other words, the Iranians had been running multiple programs outside the auspices of the IAEA's oversight, and this constitutes fraud on every level. This is a violation of international law - and you know it.
Further developments would only serve to make the Iranians look more like liars: The head of their nuclear research center is military, the 'hot-spot' according to the satellites is buried underneath a military base, their entire program is headed by the military... Why does this look so suspicious? Because it mimicks the weapons programs OF EVERY NWS.
A.Q. Khan is the lynchpin here. He is the exact reason why all other NWS made sure that no single person was privy to the knowledge of their entire program. Khan actually created the program in Pakistan and carried it in its entirety to several other countries (by his own admission). Iran is one of them. You have to ask yourself - "Why would a country who has purchased a NWP, adhere to the tenants of the NNPT? Because they aren't smart enough to fill in the blanks without help - help they were getting through the "peaceful nuclear power program".
You must keep in mind though, I am the guy who has been preaching nation's rights to study atomic energy, and I am the guy who has said all along that we need to discusss this with them from an academic/scientific point of view. I have no wish to attack them, however, if they develop nuclear weapons, the whole world is going to collapse upon them because of their fundamentally "anti-western" and "anti-semtic" rhetoric.
So, you may interpret this as literally as you like, the facts of the matter are entirely legal. Any (and all) countries have the right to defend themselves, but not by any means necessary - and the only provision that allows a country to violate the NNPT has not been invoked by Iran, therefore, their movement to a militarize program appears (to MANY COUNTRIES) to be a provocation. I would say that the world is moving before it becomes a military issue, which is better than the way they handled India, Pakistan and N. Korea.
Information and resources for understanding the facts of this matter can be found at the following locations:
http://www.iaea.org/
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Treaties/npt.html
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Conventions/index.html
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Treaties/index.html
http://www.un.org/law/lindex.htm

[ 03-04-2007, 11:42 AM: Message edited by: Merl ]
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Doing a little research will not kill you - I have it on good advice that there has never been a recorded death due to reading and comprehending



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Posts: 172 | From: Gone for good | Registered: Jan 2007  |  Logged: 70.44.114.58 | 
Mark J McCarron

Member
Member # 287
Rate Member     posted 03-05-2007 08:31                      
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quote:
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I disagree. Look at all of the "resistance organizations" world-wide that have ever evolved into political parties. Negotiation is never the answer to them. Disarmament, and conversion to a moderate message is the only thing that ever does. In the case, Al Qaeda in not moderate by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, what separates Al Qaeda from other bonafide organizations is its insistance upon using violence to achieve its goals. Even if every "white-skinned devil" left Islamic lands, they would then find others to exterminate at their pleasure... Just like they did with the Taliban; remember? They were killing their own people, not Americans.
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This organisation is quite different. It has a global reach and the attacks will just keep coming.
If the US does not attempt to negotiate, it will be complicit in any attack carried out on US soil.
Remember that.

quote:
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You are certainly entitled to your opinion, however, I disagree. Because this organization is borne out of violence, steeps in it and proliferates it - there is really only 1 way to respond to it. Sit 'em down and talk to them about their issues? Nahh.... Kill them everywhere you find them and eliminate the reasons why they would gain followers.
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Except by killing them, you provide a reason for them to gain followers...
You have very little understanding of what you are dealing with.

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I'm certain that this is already going on through intermediaries... Not going so well, so far.
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Get rid of the middle men. Let's see what al-qeada's political wing looks like.
Let's hear their demands and see the mandate that supports them.
Without that mandate they are nothing.

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Again - entitled to your opinion. I believe that things are a bit different though. I won't bother explaining why - as it is only my opinion.
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Well, I have watched terrorism throughout my entire life and I know this campaign's next stage is a bombing campaign within the US.
Its simply a natural progression to deal with the "far enemy".

quote:
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Actually, this would be interesting, however, you are being far more literal than my original answer. Also, you place an arbitrary restraint on my answer. Unlike you, I do not agree that resolutions are ad-hoc or double-standards because they are applied by nuclear weapons states (NWS). Everyone has to adhere to the same inspections and guidelines in order to reap the benefits of the IAEA's assitance. If they don't like it - don't ask for it!
Anyway, in my reply, I will avoid referencing any U.N. sanctions (and their violation thereof) if it makes you feel better. I will also not reference other blogs or fourms - that makes me feel better. Keep in mind, the laws that are violated may not be the laws that you would think... You may not know this, but the IRS brought down the Mafia in the U.S., not the FBI.
First, Iran is in violation of the NNPT that it voluntarily signed up for. There were a few countries that chose not to enlist, but Iran was not one of them. In fact, there was even a country that withdrew from it once they realized they were going to be in big trouble for violating it (N. Korea).
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This point is speculative...no evidence.

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The fact that, in 2003 the IAEA found trace amounts of Highly enriched Uranium, Plutonium and Tritium during their routine inspections was bad, but the fact that appreciable amounts of materials (enriched) and waste products could not be accounted for was Very Bad.
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There are numerous reasons for finding this material...again speculative...
I have read all your points, there is no hard core evidence here. This is all speculative. It can point to any conclusion.
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Posts: 2104 | From: Derry, Northern Ireland | Registered: Dec 2000  |  Logged: 220.235.48.193 | 


Merl

Member
Member # 4913
Member Rated:
     posted 03-05-2007 17:20                      
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quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
This organisation is quite different. It has a global reach and the attacks will just keep coming.
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Yes and no. It turns out that, in reality, their "Global reach" is far more limited after the war on terrorism than we thought. Take, for example, the "liquid explosives event". The 'globalness' of the affair was some guy who was in Pakistan, whereas most of the activities were going on in Britain. They were caught because they had been infiltrated. Prior to 9/11, no one really knew the size and scope - nor did they care much (I believe), so they were allowed to proliferate. Still to this day, most of the "Head Honchos" of the AL Qaeda network that have been captured remark that they were totally surprised to have been able to pull the whole thing off. In fact - they weren't; much of the destruction that day never happened due to internal problems. The scale was planned to be much higher, but attrition, logistics, and committment problems limited the overall scope.
Ultimately, what we are dealing with now is violence "inspired by Al Qaeda" not actual Al Qaeda attacks; they tend to be much more secretive and plotting.

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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
If the US does not attempt to negotiate, it will be complicit in any attack carried out on US soil.
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I disagree. First, I don't believe that many Americans will blame the administration for NOT negotiating with Al Qaeda if there is an attack. We have a strict policy of not negotiating with terrorist organizations, as do most other western nations. Secondly, Al Qaeda does not want to negotiate, nor do they have an official organization to negotiate with. It would be like negotiating with the Indian race... Who is the boss of all Hindu people? There isn't one.

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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Remember that.
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There is nothing to consider with that argument, much less remember.

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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Except by killing them, you provide a reason for them to gain followers...
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What you fail to acknowledge is that, in most cases, we are dealing with angry folks who are simply looking for a cause to die for. As has been pounded into me by my Muslim friends - time and time again, most of the 9/11 terrorists were not in good standing within their families, tribes, communities or religious associations. Each one of them had a history of being accused as "Western Sympathizers" (or something similar), and many were involved in this to save face for their families. Also, more than half weren't even aware that 9/11 was going to be a suicide event; they thought that it was going to be a hijacking.
The bombings and whatnot going on in Israel, Afghanistan and Iraq are all similar in that there are angry, hungry, poor and the otherwise disenfranchised committing them. Again, these are people who, for the most part, feel as though they have nothing better to live for, are looking to help their families, or truly believe the martyrdom rhetoric. It could go any way, but those are the "Big Three".
Ultimately, if we manage to correct the problems behind the feelings of disenfranchisement, hungery, and poverty - I think the numbers of 'willing participants' will drop immediately. From there, only the fundamental whackos will be at the heart of the problem, and only their families will mourn their mental illness and subsequent death.

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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
You have very little understanding of what you are dealing with.
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No, I'm afraid that I have a very good understanding of the dynamics at work. Maybe we should discuss that in real terms instead of anecdotal, media-biased soundbites ripped from the daily headlines. It is NPR, BBC, NBC, etc., etc. who have no grasp on the situation - nor do they want one. They're trying to sell ad space, not inform the public.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Get rid of the middle men. Let's see what al-qeada's political wing looks like.
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They don't have one - that's why intermediaries are used. They are very much like a pyramid where everything trickles down from above. It's an even worse situation now with 90% of the leadership catured or killed, 80% of the lieutenants captured or killed, and nothing but angry foot soldiers "inspiring" violence across the region.

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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Let's hear their demands and see the mandate that supports them.
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I don't think you'll like their demands. From the most literal interpretation of their requests, they would like you to die; immediately. Next, they would like for you to convert to Islam. Moving beyond that, they would like you to first, remove yourself from any land where you were not born, second, from land that they have claimed, and finally - from any area of the world where you can affect them. This also pertains to any form of finance, trade, medical assistance or broadcasting. Essentially, the truly radical want to exterminate everything that isn't them. It is worth noting, however, that they hardly police themselves - so, if you join up, you can go right back to what you were doing before.

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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Well, I have watched terrorism throughout my entire life and I know this campaign's next stage is a bombing campaign within the US.
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As have I, and it's real easy to predict the inevitable. In fact, 9/11 was the beginning of that event. Much of the other "attacks" on that day were supposed to be of more 'mainstream' terrorist tactics; bombings. The problem for them so far is the difficulty in getting the truly fundamental nutbags across the border, keep them here long enough to be "un-suspicious" and train them for the plan without them falling out of love with their radical ways. This country is intoxicating to most men who are not used to having 24 hour grocery stores, liquor by the gallon in the corner store and clubs where women get naked for money open 24 hours a day.

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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Its simply a natural progression to deal with the "far enemy".
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Only if they have the infrastructure. Without logistical support and the cover of a friednly community (or an ambivelent one), "far away" attacks before exponential complicated. Money is always an issue, and the intel agencies are doing a jamb-up job of watching the money trail; they learned a thing or two about it, post 9/11.

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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
This point is speculative...no evidence.
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Excuse me? Speculative with no evidence? Please Mark, go back and read - there is no dispute that Iran has violated the NNPT - they even admit it. There is also no disputing that they have processing and enrichment programs that are undeclared - constituting fraud. FRAUD is an international crime. Receiving assistance with your "peaceful nuclear technology program" in exchange for free and unimpeded inspections, only to be violating every single tenant of the agreement constitutes fraud in every country of the world - including Niger, Somalia, Venezuela, Arkansas, Russia, and the list goes on... There's no speculation there - you just do not want to be mistaken.

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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
There are numerous reasons for finding this material...again speculative...
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Yes there are many, let's list a few of the MORE LIKELY SCENARIOS given the other information and evidence present at the investigations:

*   A research reactor had run its cycle through LEU and created SEU whereby a light water reactor used the fuel to run another cycle leaving a slightly enhanced version of SEU or RU. This RU was then employed in about 15 more cycles whereby it was successively reduced until we have an amount of HEU measuring in the picograms per milliliter range. This would have only taken 45 years to accomplish
*   A research reactor has completed a cycle using 25% or greater enriched uranium hexaflouride, resulting in an enrichment of close to 35% - more than entering it into the HEU range. This could have been done only if HEU gas diffusion or centrifuge diffusion had been previously employed.
*   The Zippe centrifuge, sold to Iran and N. Korea by Pakistan, was employed. It's efficiency of U238 --> U235 conversion is appreciably higher than that of a standard centrifuge, and it's "Hallmark" is to leave traces of Plutonium and HEU behind in plumbing due to heat induced ionization. This is the mostlikely case, given the refinement charcteristics of the isotopes found, and their level of reactivity. There were other "tell-tale" signs of an intentional enrichment cycle, including the presence of plutonium and tritium.
Individually, the presence of greater than 25% U235, the presence of PU239 and Tritium are only anomolies - but to find all of them in the same place can only mean 1 of two things:
1) They have a working research reactor, a heavy-water moderated one, or -
2) They are experimenting with variable yield mechanisms in order to maximize the chain reaction of a "gadget". This can either mean they are hoping to maximize a yield that falls short of the 50kg critical mass limit (using SEU), or they are trying to maximize the yield of a <50 kg device of significantly higher concentrations of U235.
The report shows that, not only were there more than "trace amounts" of U235 and PU238, there was also U234, Deuterium, Tritium, NP237, PU244 and PU239. This can really only be the two possibilities above and anyone with a physics background knows it. NP doesn't grow on trees, and neither does PU240, PU238 & PU 239.

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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
I have read all your points, there is no hard core evidence here. This is all speculative. It can point to any conclusion.
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Only because you don't want to be wrong. Go back and read the evidence found in the Iranian sites and then compare it to what you know of physics. As long as you understand that the isotope PU240 doesn't exist outside of reactors - you'll come to the same conclusion as the rest of the experts: Iran has perpetrated a fraud on the IAEA.
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Doing a little research will not kill you - I have it on good advice that there has never been a recorded death due to reading and comprehending

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Posts: 172 | From: Gone for good | Registered: Jan 2007  |  Logged: 12.101.180.238 | 



Mark J McCarron

Member
Member # 287
Rate Member     posted 03-06-2007 07:32                      
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Yes and no. It turns out that, in reality, their "Global reach" is far more limited after the war on terrorism than we thought.
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You obviously don't think like a terrorist do you?
When running a terrorist campaign, less is more. From a single attack on US soil, look at the various effects it has had on US liberty.
From intrusive inspections at airports, to the bugging of American citizens, the mighty US constitution became toilet paper over night.
With a total cost of the Iraq war at around $405,998,004,863 (costofwar.com) and rising at around $3000 per second, Al-qeada got extreme value for money.
Al-qeada's global reach does not need to be activated at this point, the goals they have outlined for dealing with the "far enemy" is progressing nicely from their point of view.
In addition, due to the cell structure of this organisation, it is impossible for you to know the full extent of its reach. As a general rule of thumb, take what you know of this organisation's man power, then multiply that by a factor of ten. This will provide a more accurate ballpark figure for estimating the unknown quantity of people awaiting activation.

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Take, for example, the "liquid explosives event". The 'globalness' of the affair was some guy who was in Pakistan, whereas most of the activities were going on in Britain. They were caught because they had been infiltrated. Prior to 9/11, no one really knew the size and scope - nor did they care much (I believe), so they were allowed to proliferate.
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Have you ever heard of the term "decoy"?
Such individuals are used to provide the enemy with a false sense of security. The intention is that the enemy will underestimate the training, expertise and numbers involved.
Its like playing poker, never give away your hand.

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Still to this day, most of the "Head Honchos" of the AL Qaeda network that have been captured remark that they were totally surprised to have been able to pull the whole thing off. In fact - they weren't; much of the destruction that day never happened due to internal problems. The scale was planned to be much higher, but attrition, logistics, and committment problems limited the overall scope.
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Funny how they all have the same story...especially when the majority would have been outside the loop. Cell structures tend to isolate anyone outside of direct involvement from the details of implementation or the extent of the support network. "Head Honchos", as you like to call them, are always outside the loop, they are too much of a security risk as they represent the weakest point in the chain.
Sounds like you have been fed a BS story...

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Ultimately, what we are dealing with now is violence "inspired by Al Qaeda" not actual Al Qaeda attacks; they tend to be much more secretive and plotting.
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My point entirely...

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I disagree. First, I don't believe that many Americans will blame the administration for NOT negotiating with Al Qaeda if there is an attack. We have a strict policy of not negotiating with terrorist organizations, as do most other western nations.
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That would be during an active assault, such as during a hijacking. All governments negotiate with terrorists and their political counter-parts. They just don't like to admit it to the public.

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Secondly, Al Qaeda does not want to negotiate, nor do they have an official organization to negotiate with. It would be like negotiating with the Indian race... Who is the boss of all Hindu people? There isn't one.
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Well, this represents a PR bonus. Where are all the provocative questions?
Such question like:
What are the goals of Al-qeada?
How do they intend to achieve them?
Where is the political structure that will run this Islamic state?
What's the point in killing their own, if they have not prepared, in detail, the specifics of this state?
Sounds kind of stupid launching a war with no idea of how to create or run an Islamic state...

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There is nothing to consider with that argument, much less remember.
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On the contrary, it could be argued that the US is allowing, or even escalating violence, to justify increases to defense budgets to implement PNACs moderisation of the US military.
There is quite a solid case here. The world could turn quite nasty with people asking all sorts of questions in government forums and demanding investigations. A unified stand could cause all sorts of problems and I'm sure the PTB wouldn't want the public to become too educated on the matter.

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What you fail to acknowledge is that, in most cases, we are dealing with angry folks who are simply looking for a cause to die for. As has been pounded into me by my Muslim friends - time and time again, most of the 9/11 terrorists were not in good standing within their families, tribes, communities or religious associations. Each one of them had a history of being accused as "Western Sympathizers" (or something similar), and many were involved in this to save face for their families.
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Do you think that killing these guys will increase or decrease this sort of attitude?
The US is the biggest recruiting poster for al-qeada.

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Also, more than half weren't even aware that 9/11 was going to be a suicide event; they thought that it was going to be a hijacking.
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There is no indication of this on the transcripts of any of the recovered black-boxes. Also, you can't perform an operation like 9/11 by keeping half your team in the dark. The entire operation would become a mutiny.
Where did you get this BS???

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The bombings and whatnot going on in Israel, Afghanistan and Iraq are all similar in that there are angry, hungry, poor and the otherwise disenfranchised committing them.
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It costs money to obtain explosives, detonators and to run the support networks. While the actual event may be carried out by the people you describe, you're ignoring the big picture that exists in the background.

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Ultimately, if we manage to correct the problems behind the feelings of disenfranchisement, hungery, and poverty - I think the numbers of 'willing participants' will drop immediately.
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Easier said than done. You're also ignoring the cultural loyalty that drives the need to have revenge and to continue (or further) their cause.
What you are describing will not happen immediately, it will take a generation at least, perhaps two.

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From there, only the fundamental whackos will be at the heart of the problem, and only their families will mourn their mental illness and subsequent death.
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You really have no comprehension of how deep this truly runs. You are very naive if you believe this.
People will not turn their backs on these guys that easily, it is a progressional thing that develops over a long period of time. For that to happen, justice must be served and a sense of having gained something must be felt by the majority.
I really can't believe that someone that seems to take the time to research his material, could be so delusional when it comes to understanding human nature in conflict.
My advice, get realistic, put yourself in their shoes and you will come to realise...its game on.

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They don't have one - that's why intermediaries are used.
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I do realise that. I should have phrased that better. Force them to have a political wing. Their own people will start asking some real far-reaching questions and without it, al-qeada will fragment.
People feel they are being led someone, simply show them it has been up the garden path, as these guys haven't thought their pipedream through.

quote:
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They are very much like a pyramid where everything trickles down from above. It's an even worse situation now with 90% of the leadership catured or killed, 80% of the lieutenants captured or killed, and nothing but angry foot soldiers "inspiring" violence across the region.
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Don't think that for one second. In cell structures, leadership is close to useless. It is there more to occupy the enemy than to provide co-ordination, financial or logistical support.
The reals brains behind this operation is still there. Its something the US is obviously not aware of.
If the US had achieved those claims, then attacks and arms supplies would have dropped in proportion. This is not the case, in fact, quite the opposite is true. This indicates that core structure of al-qeada is rock solid and on the increase. It also indicates that attempts at infiltration have been unsuccessful and the US is in the dark for the most part.


quote:
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I don't think you'll like their demands.
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As I mentioned before, that's not the point.

quote:
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Much of the other "attacks" on that day were supposed to be of more 'mainstream' terrorist tactics; bombings.
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I'm sure that's what you feel, but most likey they were decoy units with the express purposes of getting the security services to divert their attention. Similar to the pilot training in Florida, it is a test to identify sources of leaks.

quote:
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Only if they have the infrastructure. Without logistical support and the cover of a friednly community (or an ambivelent one), "far away" attacks before exponential complicated. Money is always an issue, and the intel agencies are doing a jamb-up job of watching the money trail; they learned a thing or two about it, post 9/11.
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The infrastructure obviously exist, the info required to carry out 9/11 indicates a well established network with access to the highest levels within the US military and intelligence networks. Since I have never seen anyone been brought to justice, this network is still in place and effectively "sleeping".
Money is not a problem, the US cannot prevent thousands of tonnes of drugs passing through its borders. This is the easy part, they could bring in or even generate as much as they need.
The same goes for explosives and various other materials.
Now let me give you an example of what could be done within one hour of all these materials arriving in the US.
I could pack a container lorry full of C4 and detonate a 0.8 kiloton device in a US city center with relative ease.
What would I need:
1 x Container Lorry
@200 tonnes of C4 + detonation equipment.
1 x Driver + potential backup options.
Numerous decoy units
Its not rocket science to flatten a city.

quote:
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Excuse me? Speculative with no evidence? Please Mark, go back and read - there is no dispute that Iran has violated the NNPT - they even admit it.
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Its a voluntary agreement. What part of this don't you understand?
They're under no obligation to either be a signatory, or uphold it.

quote:
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There is also no disputing that they have processing and enrichment programs that are undeclared - constituting fraud. FRAUD is an international crime.
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There is no evidence to back up this claim. Even if there were, that type of fraud does not warrant any form of attack.

quote:
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Receiving assistance with your "peaceful nuclear technology program" in exchange for free and unimpeded inspections, only to be violating every single tenant of the agreement constitutes fraud in every country of the world - including Niger, Somalia, Venezuela, Arkansas, Russia, and the list goes on... There's no speculation there - you just do not want to be mistaken.
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There is no evidence...its all based on speculation from investigations.

quote:
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Yes there are many, let's list a few of the MORE LIKELY SCENARIOS given the other information and evidence present at the investigations:
* A research reactor had run its cycle through LEU and created SEU whereby a light water reactor used the fuel to run another cycle leaving a slightly enhanced version of SEU or RU. This RU was then employed in about 15 more cycles whereby it was successively reduced until we have an amount of HEU measuring in the picograms per milliliter range. This would have only taken 45 years to accomplish
* A research reactor has completed a cycle using 25% or greater enriched uranium hexaflouride, resulting in an enrichment of close to 35% - more than entering it into the HEU range. This could have been done only if HEU gas diffusion or centrifuge diffusion had been previously employed.
* The Zippe centrifuge, sold to Iran and N. Korea by Pakistan, was employed. It's efficiency of U238 --> U235 conversion is appreciably higher than that of a standard centrifuge, and it's "Hallmark" is to leave traces of Plutonium and HEU behind in plumbing due to heat induced ionization. This is the mostlikely case, given the refinement charcteristics of the isotopes found, and their level of reactivity. There were other "tell-tale" signs of an intentional enrichment cycle, including the presence of plutonium and tritium.
Individually, the presence of greater than 25% U235, the presence of PU239 and Tritium are only anomolies - but to find all of them in the same place can only mean 1 of two things:
1) They have a working research reactor, a heavy-water moderated one, or -
2) They are experimenting with variable yield mechanisms in order to maximize the chain reaction of a "gadget". This can either mean they are hoping to maximize a yield that falls short of the 50kg critical mass limit (using SEU), or they are trying to maximize the yield of a <50 kg device of significantly higher concentrations of U235.
The report shows that, not only were there more than "trace amounts" of U235 and PU238, there was also U234, Deuterium, Tritium, NP237, PU244 and PU239. This can really only be the two possibilities above and anyone with a physics background knows it. NP doesn't grow on trees, and neither does PU240, PU238 & PU 239.
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It could indicate a test phase of a small thermal reactor.
Its also quite obvious that they have begun experiments into nuclear fusion as well. Which can be interpreted both ways.
More solid evidence is required.

« Last Edit: March 17, 2007, 12:12:55 pm by Majeston » Report Spam   Logged

"melody has power a whole world to transform."
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Majeston
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« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2007, 12:34:24 pm »

Merl

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     posted 03-08-2007 19:50                      
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Mark-
I typed a complete response to your reply, but Frickin Atlantis Rising.com crapped itself around 4:00 this afternoon and vomited all over my reply... It's apparently lost in cyberspace.
I do not feel like retyping it, so I offer this instead: You need to review the definition for "Speculative" - you are misusing it. Having evidence for all to see precludes the use of "speculative", particularly when the presence of so many elements and their ugly isotopes limits the potential "speculation" to just two possibilities; both are violations of the NNPT and both are contrary to what Iran claims. This is the definition of a lie, and a lie constitutes a fraud if you have agreed to do something in exchange for something else.
As for the idea that "Fraud" is "speculative" - again, you misuse the word. To agree to inspections, and to agree to refrain from doing certain things, in exchange for certain benefits - to only do whatever you want, while still expecting the benefits IS FRAUD. I don't care what country you come from - if you promise to refrain from poopin in the neighbor's yard if they give you their newspaper everyday, it is fraud to read their newspaper while poopin in their yard. 'nuff said.
Check the testimony of Ramsey bin Al Sheib - he's the one who claimed many of "his" lieutenants kept the 'Martyrdom aspect' of the hijacking from their "underlings". The cockpit voice recorder also recorded arguments between the terrorists during the collision line-up and execution. This is a matter of public record.
This particular statement that you made absolutely stunned me:

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:"It could indicate a test phase of a small thermal reactor. Its also quite obvious that they have begun experiments into nuclear fusion as well. Which can be interpreted both ways.
"
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Uhhhh - YEAH, that's what I have been saying. Thankyou for finally acknowledging that I was correct; however, the presence of the elements listed (in greater than trace amounts) can only be interpreted in ways damning to the Iranians - albeit two different ways.
The point is, Iran claims that it is nowhere near a workable device, military or civilian. This means that they are lying OR they have a working reactor from someone else. What it really means is exactly what I said earlier - they're full of hooey, and they are utilizing Pakistani Zippe centrifuges. A clear violation of the NNPT.
If they withdraw from the NNPT they will lose all hope of aid, if they stay, they continue committing fraud.
Over all, I would say that you are either an apologist for the Iranians or an avid disliker of the U.S. Either way, simply discounting the accuracy of what I say because it doesn't sit well with you is not the same as proving me wrong. Bring evidence next time to refute my point - this time you came armed only with assertions and opinions.
--------------------
Doing a little research will not kill you - I have it on good advice that there has never been a recorded death due to reading and comprehending



Mark J McCarron

Member
Member # 287
Rate Member     posted 03-09-2007 05:01                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------

quote:
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I do not feel like retyping it, so I offer this instead: You need to review the definition for "Speculative" - you are misusing it. Having evidence for all to see precludes the use of "speculative", particularly when the presence of so many elements and their ugly isotopes limits the potential "speculation" to just two possibilities;
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Let's review your claims:

quote:
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Yes there are many, let's list a few of the MORE LIKELY SCENARIOS given the other information and evidence present at the investigations:
* A research reactor had run its cycle through LEU and created SEU whereby a light water reactor used the fuel to run another cycle leaving a slightly enhanced version of SEU or RU. This RU was then employed in about 15 more cycles whereby it was successively reduced until we have an amount of HEU measuring in the picograms per milliliter range. This would have only taken 45 years to accomplish
* A research reactor has completed a cycle using 25% or greater enriched uranium hexaflouride, resulting in an enrichment of close to 35% - more than entering it into the HEU range. This could have been done only if HEU gas diffusion or centrifuge diffusion had been previously employed.
* The Zippe centrifuge, sold to Iran and N. Korea by Pakistan, was employed. It's efficiency of U238 --> U235 conversion is appreciably higher than that of a standard centrifuge, and it's "Hallmark" is to leave traces of Plutonium and HEU behind in plumbing due to heat induced ionization. This is the mostlikely case, given the refinement charcteristics of the isotopes found, and their level of reactivity. There were other "tell-tale" signs of an intentional enrichment cycle, including the presence of plutonium and tritium.
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What you fail to mention is that what was discovered is "trace amounts".

quote:
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It was reported on July 18 that the IAEA inspectors had detected the trace of enriched uranium in the samples taken at Natanz, but Iran said that the source of the trace is the equipments brought to Natanz from elsewhere and bought on the international market. Subsequently, it was announced on September 25 that a trace amount of enriched uranium has also been detected at Kaalaa-ye (Kalaye is usually used in the english press) Electric Company in the northwest suburb of Tehran, a non-nuclear site (the Company produces watches, as well as certain components for the centrifuges) that the IAEA suspects Iran is using for her nuclear enrichment activities. Since Iran had declared to the IAEA that the instruments at Natanz had been stored at the Kaalaa-ye Electric site before being transported to Natanz, and given that no trace of enriched uranium has been detected anywhere else in Iran, the Kaalaa-ye Electric discovery may actually confirm Iran's contention regarding the origin of the enriched uranium. But, once again, the situation is not clear, unless Iran provides the IAEA a list of suppliers that provided her with the instruments and equipments.
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http://www.payvand.com/news/03/oct/1039.html
This is the most likely scenario given that trace amounts were also found at the electric company prior to usage.

quote:
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both are violations of the NNPT and both are contrary to what Iran claims. This is the definition of a lie, and a lie constitutes a fraud if you have agreed to do something in exchange for something else.
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Fraud? Prove it...please.
The onus is on foreign governments to prove the guilt of Iran. Iran does not have to prove its innocence.
Innocent until proven guilty.

quote:
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As for the idea that "Fraud" is "speculative" - again, you misuse the word. To agree to inspections, and to agree to refrain from doing certain things, in exchange for certain benefits - to only do whatever you want, while still expecting the benefits IS FRAUD.
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It is a speculation based upon limited information. That information has numerous plausible explanations.

quote:
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Uhhhh - YEAH, that's what I have been saying. Thankyou for finally acknowledging that I was correct; however, the presence of the elements listed (in greater than trace amounts) can only be interpreted in ways damning to the Iranians - albeit two different ways.
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Not really. I said it is a possibility. Prove it.

quote:
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The point is, Iran claims that it is nowhere near a workable device, military or civilian. This means that they are lying OR they have a working reactor from someone else.
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No, it doesn't. No member of the IAEA makes this claim.

quote:
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What it really means is exactly what I said earlier - they're full of hooey, and they are utilizing Pakistani Zippe centrifuges. A clear violation of the NNPT.
If they withdraw from the NNPT they will lose all hope of aid, if they stay, they continue committing fraud.
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Let's refresh your memory on the NNTP and some background info:

quote:
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(1) according to the original IAEA safeguard agreements, Iran was not obligated to declare the start of construction of the Natanz facility. These agreements stipulate that, only 180 days before introducing any nuclear material, does Iran have to declare the existence of the facility. Therefore, construction of the undeclared Natanz facility is NOT by itself a violation of the NPT.
(2) The NPT does allow Iran to legally build any nuclear facility, including one for uranium enrichment, so long as it is declared to, and safeguarded by, the IAEA, and is intended for peaceful purposes.
Keeping these important points in mind, the problematic aspects of Iran's nuclear program, so far as the IAEA is concerned, are as follows.
(a) The origin of the trace amounts of highly-enriched uranium at Natanz and Kaalaa-ye Electric Company near Tehran is not yet clear.
[However, there is no proof to suggest anything contrary to the claims made by the Iranian government.]
(b) Iran declared to the IAEA that it has begun some uranium enrichment activities at Natanz.
...This was declared to the IAEA...the Natanz facility is monitored by the IAEA, this activity does not represent a violation of the NPT.
(c) The IAEA has demanded that Iran provide it with all the details of the work at Kaalaa-ye Electric Company.
Iran has allowed the facility to be visited by the IAEA inspectors, even though this inspection is not covered by the NPT.
(d) In 1991, Iran received from China 1,000 kgr of natural uranium hexafluoride, 400 kgr of uranium tetrafluoride (UF_4), and 400 kgr of uranium dioxide (UO_2), without reporting them to the IAEA.
Iran has declared that some of the compounds have been converted to other uranium compounds, some of which have medical applications, while others may be of dual use. Given that Iranian medical scientists who work in Iran have published the results of their research involving such uranium compounds, Iran's explanation is plausible.
(1) As recognized by the NPT, peaceful use of nuclear technology, and in particular nuclear energy, is Iran's fundamental right, so long as her nuclear program is completely transparent to the IAEA.
(2) Article 22 of the agreement between Iran and the IAEA allows for an "arbitral tribunal," if there is still any dispute after Iran provides sufficient details of her nuclear program to the IAEA.
(3) The United States has a selective non-proliferation policy [aka...hypocritical foreign policy]. She allows Pakistan, a country that created the Taliban and her population has provided sanctuary to Osama bin Laden and his terrorist group; a country whose military is still controlled to a large extent by extremist elements, to develop nuclear weapons. The US has assisted Israel to develop an impressive arsenal of nuclear weapons; has exported nuclear technology to China, and has offered a deal to North Korea regarding her nuclear reactors. The US does not pressure Pakistan, India and Israel to sign the NPT and its Additional Protocol. A little-known fact is that, in early 1995, the German government proposed a plan whereby Kraftwerk Union (a subsidiary of Siemens) would complete construction of the Bushehr reactors, subject to Iran's agreeing to extra non-proliferation verification procedures similar to those that the United States negotiated with North Korea, and Iran agreed with the plan. But, once again, immense pressure by the United States scuttled the plan, after which Iran turned to Russia for completion of the Bushehr reactors.
A few other important points must be mentioned here:
(b) Signing the Additional Protocol, while necessary, may not be sufficient by itself to protect Iran's nuclear assets, unless the US invades and occupies Iran and installs a completely puppet regime in Tehran, she will continue pressuring Iran, using her nuclear program as a pretext, regardless of the future political developments in Iran.
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In terms of enforcing the NPT...the agreement itself does not contain any measures to do that:

quote:
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NPT Enforcement
The last issue is perhaps most difficult. There is no real enforcement mechanism for the nuclear weapons states in terms of verification and there is no equality before the law in terms of punishment. The IAEA serves as the verification mechanism for non-nuclear weapons states, but there are no mechanisms for verification within the NPT of nuclear weapons states and there are no enforcement mechanisms within the NPT.
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The NPT is therefore a waste of time and nothing more than a method of tricking the general public into thinking that Western countries are acting legally in regards to Iran.
So, as I said before, even if Iran has a nuclear weapons program, it is not in violation of any part of International law that can be enforced.
Any attack, sanctions or aggressive acts towards Iran are illegal and criminal acts under International law.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Merl

Member
Member # 4913
Member Rated:
     posted 03-09-2007 12:47                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------

quote:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Let's review your claims:
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Fair enough.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
What you fail to mention is that what was discovered is "trace amounts".
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No, that's not correct, and I made it SPECIFICALLY clear that there were GREATER THAN 'TRACE AMOUNTS'. The Neptunium and Uranium isotopes were in fairly significant amounts, considering their half-life; indicating their recent creation. What was in 'trace amounts' was the actual enriched Uranium, specifically HEU isotope 235. I think I made this pretty clear.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
This is the most likely scenario given that trace amounts were also found at the electric company prior to usage.
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No, that is not correct. In fact - only someone who either does not fundamentally understand the process, or an Iranian sympathizer (apologist) who thinks that story made sense. I know absolutely no one in the world of physics, here - in Europe, the Middle East, Asia or India that believes this is a possible answer. We aren't dealing with anthrax or a virus here - you cannot "infect" other equipment just because you store contaminated equipment in the same building. This is an example of what Iran, Libya, N. Korea and a number of others had been doing for years... Stand in front of the press, and just lie - Blatantly tell a whopper and dare the press to question you. It reminds me of "Baghdad Bob" during the Iraq invasion: "There are no Americans on Iraqi soil," he said - all the while CNN's embedded reporter is broadcasting live from Saddam International airport. Nonsense.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Fraud? Prove it...please. The onus is on foreign governments to prove the guilt of Iran. Iran does not have to prove its innocence.
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What you seem to be missing is the reality that it has been proven. The IAEA has ended all support for their "peaceful program", and the U.N. has placed all possible restrictions on them to limit their access to technology which would aid them in completing their "non-peaceful program". You see, A.Q. Khan admitted to selling them the complete plans... This is why the IAEA did the "rectal exam" on them in the first place. It was during that intense investigation that they learned of all of the infractions. In fact, Iran isn't arguing that they haven't violated the NNPT, they are arguing that they aren't building weapons! So - you ask me to prove something that's already proven AND admitted to. The details of the weapons program are hardly paramount to the discussion of the fraud - the fraud stands on its own.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Innocent until proven guilty.
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Sort of... They had stipulations to their contract with the world NNP committee. They had benchmarks and investigations to adhere to. They had declarations to make, and agreements to enforce. They violated them by enriching to a HEU state, they violated by purching HEU, they violated by harvesting yellowcake from multiple (undisclosed) sources, they violated by tampering with seals - cameras and documents. Best of all, they knowingly violated the treaty and a whole range of International Nuclear Non-proliferation Laws by purchasing the completed weapons program from Khan... The list goes on an and. Anyway, even though they were not sticking to the agreement - they were still receiving assistance, and requesting aid; FRAUD.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
It is a speculation based upon limited information. That information has numerous plausible explanations.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Again, you incorrectly apply the meaning. IT IS NOT SPECULATION WHEN YOU HAVE CAUGHT SOMEONE WITH THEIR HAND IN THE COOKIE JAR. Though you may never know if they were going to eat the cookie or not, you do however, know that they had opened the jar and stuck their hand in. I'm growing weary from laboring this very obvious point with you.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Not really. I said it is a possibility. Prove it.
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The proof is proof itself. That's like asking me to prove that alpha, beta and gamma emmissions are proof that radiation exists! The emmissions are the proof, just like the presence of the materials are proof that they were there! In this case, there are only two reasons why they would be there, and both are damning to the Iranians... Again - tired of laboring this obvious point.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
No, it doesn't. No member of the IAEA makes this claim.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Your answer is absurd to the point that I estimate you must have misunderstood me. Of course Iran claims that it has no nuclear device - how can you argue this? They also claim to have purchase HEU on the "open market", in addition to research materials... My Wal*Mart only sells RU in 10 packs - so, unless they have a Target that offers more highly enriched Uranium - someone's full of poop. Maybe you should re-read what I said on the subject, and reconsider your response.

quote:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Let's refresh your memory on the NNTP and some background info:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
No - let's not use your source displaying a "highly biased", "anti-semtic" and paranoid schizophrenic position. I would think that you would have to chosen to spell your view out for yourself - not from the words of an obvious U.S. and Israeli biggot. There is nothing of substance in that commentary - it's all biased, and frought with meandering folly that does not AT ALL track with the opinion of the IAEA or the international community at large. I notice how all references to Pakistan's and N. Korea's influence is ommitted, as is the mining from multiple (undeclared sources). It's drivel, not worthy of dissecting in public - not offered by a reputable or credible source.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
A few other important points must be mentioned here:
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No, no they do not need to be mentioned. They are assertions offered by a paranoid person who sees conspiracy everywhere they look, and ignores facts right in their face. It isn't worth disparaging in the public domain either.

quote:
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Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
In terms of enforcing the NPT...the agreement itself does not contain any measures to do that: {snip}
The NPT is therefore a waste of time and nothing more than a method of tricking the general public into thinking that Western countries are acting legally in regards to Iran.
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You do realize that the NNPT was not a creation of the United States, and it far predates the incursion of Iran's foray into the world of atomic research; right? Those two FACTS alone make the above opinion absurd.

quote:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
So, as I said before, even if Iran has a nuclear weapons program, it is not in violation of any part of International law that can be enforced.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
And you have still offered no credible evidence to support that assertion. Posting drivel from some anti-semetic - anti-America site is not the same as offering evidence. You can do better. The issue of fraud, and the issue of purchasing complete weapons programs plans remains; undaunted by your refutation.

quote:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Mark J McCarron:
Any attack, sanctions or aggressive acts towards Iran are illegal and criminal acts under International law.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unfortunately bin Al McCarron, your words betray reason and logic. You and I agree that there is no justification for aggression or attack, but the sanctions are completely justified and the vast majority of the world knows it. Hell, even the Saudis, Turks, French, Egyptians, Pakistanis and Yemeni agree that the sanctions are justified! This isn't an issue of imperialism as you would like to make it - this is a matter of law, and you don't want to admit it.
From my perspective, I still think that we need to get in there and negotiate 1 on 1 with them to find out just how bad their oil infrastructure has become. I'm certain that this is why they are making such a push for atomic power. They are acting like a bunch of whackos because they want to look like heros in the Muslim world, all the while they are really covering up the fact that they can hardly support their own (internal) oil demands - much less continue exporting at such low prices. Eventually, unless they can decrease their own need for oil, their neighbors are going to find out how inefficient they are when the country stops paying their bills because they are in bankruptcy court. Thumbing their nose at the U.S. and the Western World is a ploy - a decoy.
As for the highly enriched product: I think that they are definitely attempting to build a weapon, a device or even a gadget. They see the potential for entering into the exclusive club of NWS, they paid their money to the exporting NWS's, and now they want to reap the benefits. They are doing everything in their power to supplant Saudi as the Big Dog in that region, and they see atomic weapons and energy generation as their avenue. This would go a long way to gethering all of the sattellite states into the fold.
Have a great day all - It's Friday!!
--------------------
Doing a little research will not kill you - I have it on good advice that there has never been a recorded death due to reading and comprehending 
« Last Edit: March 17, 2007, 12:08:32 pm by Majeston » Report Spam   Logged

"melody has power a whole world to transform."
Forever, music will remain the universal language of men, angels, and spirits.
Harmony is the speech of Havona.

http://mercy.urantia.org/papers/paper44.html
Veronica Poe
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« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2007, 10:03:42 am »

That's a good idea, Majeston, we should start moving some of our favorite exchanges here from the old forum.  It's a pity that we can't move whole threads, as I thought some of Dawn's old threads had some of our best work, in terms of our life experiences and our philosophies.  Research can be replicated, hard to replicate discussions, though.

Peace,

Veronica
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Mark of Australia
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2007, 08:05:12 am »

Iran a threat?  ...pfft ,  I don't think so  , What are they gonna do ?  deliver a nuclear bomb by horse and cart ? 

China and India are the rising threats.
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Daffy Duck
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2007, 10:39:31 pm »

Well, if you're a British sailor, operating under politically-correct rules of engagement, Iran is probably a threat.

I wonder what Adm. Nelson would have done.....

Quote
Our country will, I believe, sooner forgive an officer for attacking an enemy than for letting it alone.
- Nelson
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2007, 11:11:24 pm »

Warning from Aliens Huh?? 

Applicable to Bush & Iraq Invasion & Iran threat.

1943




NOTES ON A COMMUNICATION RECEIVED IN 1943

RESPONSIBILITY

Full responsibility for peace rests upon the English-speaking nations. They had the mastery after 1915 but did not recognize and accept the call to duty. England and the United States turned their backs on the high privilege of planetary service. They wanted peace, prosperity, and national security; they got depression, unemployment, insecurity, and in twenty years another war. The United States increased its trials and tribulations a million fold by trying to escape its responsibility.

Between the two wars, nothing was done to prepare the children and the youth of the nation for their coming responsibilityñ-their part to play in world progress-ñand many of them refused to grow up. Why did Democracy decline so rapidly between the two wars? The leaders in England, France, and America were short-sighted. Many could not see beyond their own personal interests. These men sometimes performed against public sentiment; but even when replaced by others, the new ones behaved likewise. There was paucity of leadership and indifference to liberty. They saw Mussolini, Hitler, and Tojo arming but did not take it seriously. Democracy was not willing to fight. At various times an army of from 5,000 to 25,000 men could have prevented this war. The Democracies were unwilling and totally unorganized. They hated war and longed for peaceñ-but could you run a business or even manage a home so shortsightedly? The cowardly leaders of Democracy have set the clock of civilization back 2000 years. But we have a chance to start afresh. Today there is little Democracy to defend, and we can build a new world order from the ground up; but we must reject the policy of nonresistance. You cannot be as brotherly as you would like to be with an unbrotherly brother.

FREEDOM

The real problem is: Man wants liberty, and liberty with equality; but equality never has existed. Freedom is an ideal. It does not exist.

Evolution can have freedom only with compulsion. We must restrain by compulsion. This is true of the individual, community, state, nation, and in family life. There is no sense to the doctrine of freedom that gives citizens the right to combat and destroy the freedoms that Democracy gives. There is no peace on earth with the license to destroy the liberty and sovereignty of other peoples. No nation can exist on a level above law. Freedom is fostered by human liberalism and Christianity. What is liberalism in one generation is conservatism in the next. Liberalism has become dogmatic, and Democracy has ceased to grow. Democracy ceased to keep pace with industrial progress. Self-government is slowly committing suicide.

Freedom must be ever militant and must unhesitatingly destroy whatever assails freedom and be intolerant concerning things undemocratic. There should be no liberty of speech for those who would destroy liberty of speech. The tools of freedom must not function in a suicidal capacity. There must be no liberty to vote in the freedoms of Democracy to destroy the right to vote.

DEMOCRACY

Democracy today is being destroyed by those who wish to use Democracy. Democracy is not a club to join and forever enjoy its protection. As long as Democracyís basic freedoms exist, it is a Democracy.

The right view of Democracy is a geographic group of people having a common ideal. To allow Germans to live here and retain their German citizenship is like letting the wolves live with the sheep. Offices must be held by citizens trained in schools of statesmanship. These schools must be established.

NATIONALISM

The nations are suffering from intense industrialism and augmented nationalism. In times past, Nationalism was a good thing; it brought people together in a common interest, within law and representative government. But when a social ideal becomes a political dogma, it becomes an obstacle to world progress. Nationalism becomes a relic of patriotism which no forward-looking prophet would dare touch.

Nationalism persists because it has not been attacked by modern and intelligent citizens who do not seek to disrupt but to save it by intelligent control. Present day Nationalism is akin to polytheism. Nation and race became the pagan god of many modern people. The time has come to give way before a monotheistic policy of Internationalism. The churches must divorce themselves from Nationalism.

INTERNATIONALISM

Internationalism will not be created by pacts, treaties, appeasement, etc. It will be created by force of arms. It is the only way for the next 1000 years of civilizationís evolution. International Legislatures must make the international laws, an International Court must interpret the laws, and an International Police must enforce the laws. Lesser nations must be forced into the international union.

Not in centuries has the Christian world had the opportunity to establish international government. Socialism, Communism, and other world movements have lost their influence. Now there must be coercive law with sure penalties attached to its violation. The god of Nationalism struck at the liberty of Democracy and at the Christian religion.

Nationalism reached the beginning of the end when you could cross the ocean in six hours and it took six weeks to get a visa. Recalcitrant and selfish Nationalism must be made to accept Internationalism. It will not regret it 25 years from now.

There are only two realities in the worldñ-the individual and the human race. The cosmos does not recognize caste, tribe, race, or nation. National wars will end when you recognize that [independent national states] Nationalism is not the final goal of human evolution.

SOVEREIGNTY

No single idea has wrought so much misery as that delusive concept of sovereignty. Sovereignty passed from king to nation; a political dogma, for soon the people wielded sovereignty much as kings did. Today millions are dying, and millions more will starve to the national idea of sovereignty. Sovereignty reached its height in the French Revolution and its deathbed in this war. Military victors have a chance to resurrect it in a modified form. May it be a democratic modification.

Enormous vested interests are involved in the worship of the Golden Calf of sovereignty which results in economic dislocation. What will be the effect upon our returning soldiers? National matters should be handled by national sovereignty and international affairs be handled by international sovereignty.

Peace will become the watch care of international government. When lawless minorities learn that, then peace will prevail. Appeasement and moral-compromise are the habits of peace-loving and self-loving Nationalist. The present conflict resulted when nations wanted peace at any price. The theory of Democracy validates the concept of equality, but the idea of equality produces conflicts which only courts can settle, unless the victors establish international overcontol for those lesser peoples who are hungry for freedom and self-government.

The dream of equality is fiction. It is not nationally or individually true. Such a dream can only be realized before God and before a court. Man acquires citizenship equality before the law; before a super-court, all nations are equal. You cannot have equality among trends or creations without law; and law without the coercive power of enforcement is a tragic farce. Equality without law means war. Without super-law, you can only have peace when the weaker submit to the stronger.

Any hope for world peace without coercive international law is a furtive dream. Mandatory law is law enforced by unquestioned force. Peace is the reign of law. Law is the just use of force by unquestioned authority. There cannot be lasting peace without force. To make peace we must wage legal war. There is a difference between the outlaw who kills a man and the sheriff who kills the outlaw for his crime. The sheriff is not a murderer-ñhe is a peace officer.

Non-intervention and appeasements are like the old monarchsí ìgentlemenís agreements.î Each agrees to let the other carry out his nefarious schemes.

War is the major factor in the non-spiritual history of the human race. At the present time, the most advanced peoples look upon it as an unnecessary evil. It is the first time in history that world-wide peace has been talked of. Wars have become increasingly more terrible in the last 150 years, and for the last 100 years no government has been able to get the full support of its people to a war policy. Leaders start wars on the theory that they are going to be, or have been, attacked. If the majority want to abolish war, why do not they do it? If war is an expression of human emotions like crime, it will not be abolished. But civilized people have abolished individual crime. Another view: in the case of a criminal committing murder, you quickly distinguish between the criminal and the sheriff who shoots him. Each from a biological viewpoint is guilty but not from the social and moral viewpoints. There are two kinds of war: (1) social criminal aggression and (2) legal group military sanctions.

An International Government can (a) reduce war to a minimum just as courts function to minimize crime and (b) render war a legal action on the part of authorized groups for the peace, safety, and security of all mankind. War can be and must be legalized, minimized, and humanized. The use of poison gas, submarines, and aerial bombing of civilian populations can be prevented. The International Police will be known as Peace Armies. You cannot maintain rules of warfare when armies are conscripted and nations are fighting for sovereignty. You canít have international law without international power to enforce the law.


Disarmament on the part of great nations, such as the peace- loving people of the United States, is a direct contribution to war. If the English-speaking peoples remain intelligent and fully armed, they will constitute the Peace Army until the regional and international courts can be established. Equal quality of arms is a delusion. What mayor of a great city would allow criminals to carry guns? Arm well the police, but prevent the criminal element from getting arms. Long have well-meaning but short-sighted pacifist proclaimed, ìYou canít have peace by waging war.î That is exactly what you can do and will have to do for the next millennium.


Legal war is the act of the legal authority of the International Government--action in response to law. Legal war is designed to maintain peace, not to take loot or seek revenge. It is waged by order of the legal authority of International Government for safe-guarding the peace of nations. There are two kinds of fighting, and any nation that fights an illegal war will fight a hopeless one. The time has come for nations to be governed by law and not by political ambition, personal whims and directives, rampant nationalism, fanatical dictators, or the delusion of sovereignty. Modern science has ended the day of the international frontiersman. The forces of civilization have arrived on the international frontier.


The dogma of non-intervention is the most uncivilized and inconsistent ever held by modern nations. What would you think of a policeman who would refuse to help a fellow-officer who was engaged in a struggle with a thug? And it is just such strange and inhuman conduct on the part of America and other world powers which enables unscrupulous dictators to become rulers in other parts of the world. Non-intervention is the remnant of the ìgentlemenís agreementî of the olden rulers which was just an agreement between monarchs not to interfere in each othersí wars.


Todayís advances in science, industry, commerce, communication, etc. render the dogma of neutrality inconsistent. This neutrality makes possible (1) inconsistency of policies, (2) corrupt press, (3) fomenting of strikes, disorganization, disunity, and divide and conquer.


Six or eight years ago the American nation began to watch a European nation stop making automobiles and turn to making airplanes, conscripting its citizens, making over its schools, rationing its food, and taxing and limiting incomes. They were 2000 miles away so American refused to be concerned; now weíre doing those same things whether we like it or not. The world cannot go on half free and half slave; it must be either all free or all slave. There are still thousands of Americans who do not see things as they really are. They long for the day when it will be over and they can return to their old ways. They are Isolationists at heart, ready to disarm and sink their navy again. They learned very little from the last world war (World War I) wherein the naval disaster (disarming) was far more costly than the loss at Pearl Harbor.


If one great nation allows treaties to be counted as scraps of paper, then all great nations are invalidated. Today if one goes off the gold standard, they all go off because each is so interdependent. The world is so economically interdependent that the price of commodities must be determined by the producer operating under the least favorable conditions, which means, in competition, that the standard of living starts on a downward spiral. Tariffs tend to make barriers, but you pay a price for them. This downward spiral affects the standard of living, depth of culture, extent of education, labor conditions, personal liberty, taxation, tariffs, exports and imports, defense policies, and moral standards. The nation living under the least favorable condition and lowest cultural standard will become the determining influence over all other peoples.


The only hope of the survival of the American standards of living is to share them as far as possible with other peoples. If one powerful nation is deficient in morality, it costs us much more to keep ours up. The nation that would selfishly save its own high standards is destined to lose them. In any circumscribed area of the world it will be discovered, in the long run, that the existing government will be compelled to gravitate gradually down to the level of the lowest and most primitive that is allowed to exist. One criminal and inferior abroad in a community can corrupt a score of well-meaning youths. In self-defense the Democracies must export life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.


Whoever heard of neutrality between right and wrong? How can you be neutral in the struggle between good and evil? In any ideal struggle, neutrality is suicidal. Neutrality means the enemy is free to pick you off one at a time. In local government a sheriff, when hard-pressed by lawlessness, can deputize any number of citizens, but such a plan will not work on a national scale. Such results can only be gotten by internationalism.


Honest men cannot have confidential dealings with rascals. Honest nations keep their word and live up to their treaties. The honest administration does not make treaties with a dishonest neighbor. If war is to be outlawed, the farce of neutrality must end. It is immoral and cowardly for a group of law-abiding citizens to stand idly by and see a fellow citizen being held up, beaten, and robbed; and such moral indifference is suicidal to a nation. What can be said of Christian nations that stand by complacently while world gangsters strafe and plunder the civilized world, murdering and starving little children? May it never happen again!


The French Revolution reached the highest point in the struggle for personal liberty, the American Revolution in the struggle for national independence. A grave mistake was made when the spirit of independence was concocted into a formula of self-determination; and it was an American president who perpetrated this blunder when only fifty years previously a Civil War was fought to prevent the right of self-determination. Little nations can have no more self-determination than each state of the Union can have complete sovereignty.


Each state is sovereign in all matters of state but in national affairs the Federal Government is sovereign, and you can only have peace predicated on law. The idea of every little nation having the right of self-determination only spells industrial paralysis and social hell. Internationalism is detrimental to national intrigue.


You canít postulate independence without encountering interdependence, and nine out of ten nations canít have economic independence without enormously lowering their standard of living. The United States and Russia--the two most powerful nations in the world-- are not economically independent. Humans are born wholly dependent. Each child seeks independence, but he learns, as he grows older, that he is interdependent. The concept of complete independence is fallacious. In life there is dependence, independence, and then intelligent interdependence.


The complete independence of self-determination which was accorded small nations after the first world war did not afford them security. They were uneasy, suspicious, and tormented by feelings of insecurity. Both individuals and nations must learn the lessons of interdependence. The attempt at complete economic independence leads to over-production, disorderly distribution, unemployment, and economic depression. Neither a nation nor a small group of nations can hope to enjoy complete and independent economic freedom.


In the spiritual world ìno man liveth unto himself alone.î Neither can a nation continue to live to itself. A state that strives for economic freedom will gravitate certainly and swiftly to a totalitarian state. Fascism and Nazism is the result of striving for economic freedom--freedom without restraint, liberty without compulsion. Honesty in business and altruism in government pays high dividends.


We must relinquish national sovereignty and enter into international sovereignty. Think how much states are free when they donít have to concern themselves with things Federal. So would nations be more free with an International Government to attend to global affairs. It will be too late to undertake it after the war is over. Says the Declaration of Independence: ìWhenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, it is the right of the people to alter, abolish, or institute new government, laying its foundations on such principles and organizing its powers in such form as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.î


Today the nations of the earth are most unsafe and most unhappy. Nationalism is on its deathbed. Unlimited sovereignty is moribund. The time has come for the birth of Internationalism. Let the sick nations follow the wise counsel of the fathers of American independence. Will you humble your nationalism enough to adopt a sane internationalism?


Dictators proclaim ìMight is Right.î Democracies believe ìRight is Might.î The world is suffering from these errors or relative truths. Spiritual causes cannot employ physical force in their interest, but material causes depend on physical force for their survival. It is perfectly proper to found a church on the ideas of the League of Nations of World War I. When the League of Nations didnít apply force, it committed suicide. War is a legal reality. When not used in the support of law, it will be used in the contravention of law and against economic justice. How silly to let international gangsters and criminals dominate the world!


Divorce force from the service of aggression, and attach it to the law of justice. Our slogan should be ìRight predicated on Might.î Educate zealous crusaders to toil for the new order. Democracy has too many apostles and not enough crusaders. When two nations are in trouble with each other, neither one can judge their aggressions. That is the job of an International Court. Aggression is good when directed against injustice. Hitler made his first aggression when he proclaimed, ìRight is whatever is in the interest of the German folk.î Thatís the time we should have struck. Judgment is the function of a group.


Democracy cannot be static. Peace is dynamic. When the law- abiding citizen is static, then the outlaw is dynamic. As we exist today, we can only exist by waging war--war that is waged in the interest of international law. War can only be prevented by the action of International Police ready to act instantly. Failure to provide for International Police provides for international banditry. When the first international military force moves against the first one who dares to go against international law, then we shall have peace.


Democracies were used to seeing local gangsters committing crime but were shocked to see them at the heads of governments. We dreaded law with force. Now we have a world with force without law.


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