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HURRICANE SEASON 2009
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Topic: HURRICANE SEASON 2009 (Read 4293 times)
Bianca
Superhero Member
Posts: 41646
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #15
on:
July 08, 2009, 07:23:39 am »
Blanca weakens to tropical depression in Pacific
Yahoo News
July 8, 2009
MEXICO CITY
– Tropical Storm Blanca has been downgraded to a tropical depression off Mexico's Pacific Coast.
Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami say the system is expected to weaken further in the next day or two as it heads over cooler waters.
Blanca was located about 600 miles (970 kilometers) west-southwest of the tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and was heading west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph).
The storm had maximum sustained winds near 35 mph (75 kph).
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Bianca
Superhero Member
Posts: 41646
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #16
on:
July 14, 2009, 06:15:33 am »
Carlos becomes hurricane again in open Pacific
Elliot Abrams AccuWeather .
57 mins ago
jULY 14, 2009
MIAMI
– Carlos has returned to hurricane strength as it moves further out into the open Pacific.
Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said early Tuesday that the storm's winds had increased to near 75 mph (120 kph). Some strengthening is possible in the next day.
As of 6 a.m. EDT, the storm was centered about 1465 miles (2,355 kilometers) southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The storm was moving west at nearly 9 mph (15 kph) on a path taking it farther out to sea.
Carlos was named a hurricane on Saturday but later weakened to a tropical storm.
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Harconen
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Posts: 2568
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #17
on:
July 22, 2009, 02:40:39 pm »
El Nino Now Official - Possible Implications
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/el_nino_now_official_possible_implications/
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Bianca
Superhero Member
Posts: 41646
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #18
on:
August 08, 2009, 08:20:23 am »
Hurricane Season 2009: Where Are All the Storms?
Willie Drye
for National Geographic News
August 6, 2009
Before the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season kicked off on June 1, forecasters were calling for 12 named storms, with about half developing into hurricanes.
Now, about two months into the season, zero storms have formed in the Atlantic.
That's because El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean have so far kept a lid on the 2009 hurricane season, experts say.
Still, meteorologists warn that a monster hurricane could be spawned before the season ends on November 30.
"Oases of favorable conditions" could exist in the Atlantic Basin long enough to allow a powerful storm to form, said Keith Blackwell, a meteorologist at the University of South Alabama's Coastal Weather Research Center in Mobile.
"It's very plausible that we still could get one or two intense hurricanes this year," Blackwell said. "And it only takes one to make it a bad season."
"Monster" to Come?
An El Niño is an unusually warm flow of water that sometimes forms off the northwestern coast of South America. The phenomenon causes a band of upper-level prevailing winds known as the jet stream to shift southward.
When the jet stream blows over the Atlantic Basin—which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico—the current creates wind shear, upper-level winds that can disrupt hurricane formation and development.
(Related: "Jet Stream Shifts May Spur More Powerful Hurricanes.")
El Niño conditions have developed over the past few months, and that's the most likely reason that the start of the season has been relatively quiet, experts say.
Still, Blackwell noted, an El Niño also formed in 1992, and that year saw the birth of Hurricane Andrew, the third most powerful hurricane to strike the U.S. in recorded history.
Andrew, the 1992 Atlantic season's first named tropical storm, formed as a tropical depression on August 16. It made landfall as a Category 5 storm on August 24 just south of Miami, Florida, with winds of about 165 miles (265.5 kilometers) an hour.
Blackwell added that El Niño conditions suppress hurricane formation mostly in traditional spawning grounds in the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic waters. But powerful hurricanes can form elsewhere.
Hurricane Alicia, for example, formed in mid-August 1983 just off the Louisiana coast during an El Niño. That storm later struck Houston, Texas, with 115-mile-an-hour (185-kilometer-an-hour) winds.
Below-Average Season
Based on the current El Niño conditions, Colorado State University meteorologists William Gray and Phil Klotzbach this week issued an updated hurricane forecast, which calls for 2009 to be a below-average season.
The pair predicts that this season will see just ten named tropical storms in the Atlantic.
Four of those storms are expected to develop into hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 miles (119 kilometers) an hour. Two will become major hurricanes, with winds exceeding 110 miles (177 kilometers) an hour, the meteorologists say.
SOURCES AND RELATED WEB SITES
University of South Alabama:
Coastal Weather Research Center
Colorado State University:
Tropical Meteorology
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Bianca
Superhero Member
Posts: 41646
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #19
on:
August 12, 2009, 10:06:23 am »
Season's first named storm likely in Atlantic: NHC
Aug. 12, 2009
NEW YORK
(Reuters)
– The Atlantic could get its first named storm of the hurricane season later Wednesday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Most weather models forecast a tropical depression will head west by northwest to just north of the Virgin Islands over the next five days toward the Bahamas, the U.S. East Coast and possibly the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico.
Energy traders, however, pointed out it was too soon to say where the system might make landfall, if at all.
The NHC forecast the depression would strengthen into the first tropical storm of the Atlantic season with winds of 39 to 73 mph within 12 hours. If the system does reach such storm status, it would be named Ana.
It located the center of the depression at about 535 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, which are off the West Coast of Africa. The system was moving westward over the open ocean at nearly 12 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph.
However, the NHC does not expect it to strengthen further into a hurricane over the next five days.
By this time last year, there had already been five named storms in the Atlantic basin.
Energy traders watch for storms that could enter the Gulf of Mexico and threaten U.S. oil and natural gas platforms and refineries along the coast.
Commodities traders likewise watch storms that could hit agriculture crops such as citrus and cotton in Florida and other states along the coast to Texas.
Separately, the NHC was also watching three tropical waves - one over the southeastern Caribbean Sea off the coast of Venezuela, one over the Atlantic Ocean about 420 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and one near the West Coast of Africa - but gave all systems a small chance - less than 30 percent - of developing into tropical storms over the next 48 hours.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by John Picinich
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Bianca
Superhero Member
Posts: 41646
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #20
on:
August 13, 2009, 08:04:25 am »
'Many hurricanes' in modern times
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent,
BBC News
Hurricanes in the Atlantic are more frequent than at any time in the last 1,000 years, according to research just published in the journal Nature.
Scientists examined sediments left by hurricanes that crossed the coast in North America and the Caribbean.
The record suggests modern hurricane activity is unusual - though it might have been even higher 1,000 years ago.
The possible influence of climate change on hurricanes has been a controversial topic for several years.
Study leader Michael Mann from Penn State University believes that while not providing a definitive answer, this work does add a useful piece to the puzzle.
' The levels we're seeing at the moment are within the bounds of uncertainty. '
Julian Heming, UK Met Office
"It's been hotly debated, and various teams using different computer models have come up with different answers," he told BBC News.
"I would argue that this study presents some useful palaeoclimatic data points."
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Bianca
Superhero Member
Posts: 41646
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #21
on:
August 13, 2009, 08:05:47 am »
Washing over
Hurricanes strike land with winds blowing at up to 300km per hour - strong enough to pick up sand and earth from the shore and carry it inland.
In places where there is a lagoon behind the shoreline, this leads to "overwash" - material from the shore being deposited in the lagoon, where it forms a layer in the sediment.
Researchers have studied eight such lagoons on shores where Atlantic hurricanes regularly make landfall - seven around the US mainland and one in Puerto Rico.
Over time, Dr Mann's team believes, the number of hurricanes making landfall on these sites will be approximately proportional to the total number of hurricanes formed - so these zones provide a long-term record of how hurricane frequency has changed over the centuries.
Wind shear at altitude can prevent a tropical storm's structure developing
The last decade has seen an average of 17 hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic - earlier in the century, half that number were recorded.
But current levels were matched and perhaps exceeded during the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly (also known as the Mediaeval Warm Period) about 1,000 years ago.
"I think if there's one standout result (from this study), it's that the high storm counts we've seen in the last 10 to 15 years could have been matched or even exceeded in past periods," commented Julian Heming, a tropical storm specialist from the UK Met Office who was not involved in the new research.
"So it's worth feeding into the debate about whether what we're seeing now is exceptional or something related to multi-decadal or even multi-centennial variability; and it does tell us that the levels we're seeing at the moment are within the bounds of uncertainty."
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Bianca
Superhero Member
Posts: 41646
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #22
on:
August 13, 2009, 08:06:49 am »
Different strokes
Dr Mann's team also used a pre-existing computer model of hurricane generation to estimate activity over the same 1,500-year period.
The model includes three factors known to be important in determining hurricane formation: sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the El Nino/La Nina cycle in the eastern Pacific, and another natural climatic cycle, the North Atlantic Oscillation.
This analysis suggests, Dr Mann argues, that the hurricane peak 1,000 years ago and the current high activity are not produced by identical sets of circumstances.
Then, he says, an extended period of La Nina conditions in the Pacific - which aid hurricane formation - co-incided with relatively warm conditions in the Atlantic.
Now, the high number is simply driven by warming waters in the Atlantic - which is projected to increase in the coming decades.
"Even though the levels of activity are similar (between 1,000 years ago and now), the factors behind that are different," said Dr Mann.
"The implication is that if everything else is equal - and we don't know that about El Nino - then warming of the tropical Atlantic should lead to increasing levels of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity."
Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
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Dara Meloy
Hero Member
Posts: 124
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #23
on:
August 18, 2009, 11:13:40 am »
Hurricane Bill Upgraded To Category 2 Storm
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti — The first hurricane of this year's Atlantic season gathered force far out to sea late Monday, while weaker storm systems drenched the northeastern Caribbean and the Florida Panhandle.
Hurricane Bill was expected to become a major storm in the next couple of days, with winds topping 110 mph (177 kph) as it moved on a track expected to be near Bermuda by the end of the week. It had become a Category 2 storm with winds whipping at 100 mph (160 kph)
The storm is very large, with tropical winds extending out 150 miles, so Bermuda faced a potential threat even if the Atlantic island avoided a direct hit, said Nick Camizzi, a forecaster with the British territory's weather service.
"We are keeping an eye on it for sure," Camizzi said.
It was too soon to tell if Bill would threaten the eastern coast of the United States, said John Cangialosi, a meteorologist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center. It was not expected to threaten Florida.
"The system is certainly large and eventually will be a powerful hurricane," Cangialosi said. But colder waters and wind shear could weaken it when it moves farther north.
What began as Tropical Storm Ana, the first named storm of the season, weakened into a tropical depression as it raced past the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, apparently moving too quickly to cause more than minor flooding.
Along the Florida Panhandle, Tropical Storm Claudette quickly weakened after it made landfall at Fort Walton Beach. By late Monday, much of the rain and storms had ceased and all flood watches and warnings had expired. Milligan and Crestview, Fla., saw the most rain with about 4.5 inches. Other areas in Florida, Alabama and Georgia received 1 to 4 inches.
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Dara Meloy
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Posts: 124
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #24
on:
August 18, 2009, 11:14:21 am »
Erosion from the high tides of Tropical Storm Claudette is shown along the beaches of Destin, Fla. on Monday Aug. 17, 2009 as members of the Destin Fire Beach Safety Patrol do a training run and swim in the chopped up surf. (AP Photo/Mari Darr-Welch)
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Dara Meloy
Hero Member
Posts: 124
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #25
on:
August 18, 2009, 11:15:12 am »
Even as Ana dissipated, it posed a potential threat to Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where impoverished riverside communities are extremely vulnerable to flooding.
Dominican authorities evacuated more than 100 people from areas at risk for flooding and mudslides, but the rains turned out lighter than expected as the system broke apart.
Still, officials maintained flood alerts for 12 provinces in the east, warning that the storm could drop up to 6 inches (150 millimeters) of rain in some areas.
"As of now the rivers are rising above their normal levels, but nonetheless we do not have flooding, thank God," said Carlos Paulino, a deputy director of the Center for Emergency Operations in the Dominican capital, Santo Domingo.
Officials in neighboring Haiti, devastated last year by four successive storms that killed some 800 people and caused $1 billion in damage, said they were relieved that Ana had weakened. But residents were warned to continue to be cautious around rivers and the coast.
In Puerto Rico, rain from Ana flooded highways in the capital, San Juan, and three schools closed as a precaution in the northern coastal city of Arecibo. The U.S. territory was expecting 2 to 4 inches of rain.
Ana was moving at a relatively fast pace, said Dave Roberts, a Navy hurricane specialist at the U.S. hurricane center. Although tropical storm watches were canceled for the storm Monday afternoon, Roberts said it could still be a big rain event for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, especially in higher elevations.
A man in his mid-20s died after being pulled from surf as Claudette approached Sunday. In Bay County, authorities searched for another man whose boat ran aground Sunday night, though they believed he made it ashore.
Far out in the Pacific, Hurricane Guillermo weakened to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph. Guillermo was centered about 525 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, and moving west-northwest near 20 mph.
___
Associated Press writers Melissa Nelson in Pensacola and Kelli Kennedy in Miami contributed to this report.
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Brandi Dye
Superhero Member
Posts: 4676
Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #26
on:
August 21, 2009, 10:38:28 am »
Hurricane Bill
First Posted: 08-18-09 08:21 AM | Updated: 08-19-09 09:41 AM
UPDATE, 8/19 -- From The AP:
Hurricane Bill is now a Category 4 storm, gaining strength as it swirls across the Atlantic. Forecasters say the storm has maximum sustained winds near 135 mph and could still get stronger. The storm's core is expected to pass well northwest of the Leeward Islands late today or early tomorrow. Then, it could pose a threat to Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center says Bill could pass near Bermuda in three or four days -- or take a track between Bermuda and the eastern U.S. Either way, forecasters say people along the U.S. East Coast can expect wave swells and rip currents in the next few days.UPDATE, 8/18-- From The AP:
Hurricane Bill was expected to become a major storm in the next couple of days, with winds topping 110 mph (177 kph) as it moved on a track expected to be near Bermuda by the end of the week. It had become a Category 2 storm with winds whipping at 100 mph (160 kph) The storm is very large, with tropical winds extending out 150 miles, so Bermuda faced a potential threat even if the Atlantic island avoided a direct hit, said Nick Camizzi, a forecaster with the British territory's weather service.
"We are keeping an eye on it for sure," Camizzi said.
It was too soon to tell if Bill would threaten the eastern coast of the United States, said John Cangialosi, a meteorologist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center. It was not expected to threaten Florida.
8/16:
The National Hurricane Center told the Associated Press that Bill might become a major hurricane by the week of August 17, 2009. As of August 17, 2009 Bill was about 1,080 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and it was expected to pass northeast of Puerto Rico and possibly take aim at Bermuda. Forecasters say its winds could top 110 mph.
Check here for more updates.
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