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HURRICANE SEASON 2009
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Topic: HURRICANE SEASON 2009 (Read 4293 times)
Bianca
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Posts: 41646
HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
on:
June 01, 2009, 06:04:51 am »
June 1st
Hurricane season begins
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #1
on:
June 01, 2009, 06:20:32 am »
AP –
Map shows proposed barriers to protect
New York City from storm surges
Hurricane barriers floated to keep sea out of NYC
Jennifer Peltz,
Associated Press Writer –
Sat May 30, 2009
NEW YORK
– When experts sketch out nightmare hurricane scenarios, a New York strike tends to be high on the list.
Besides shaking skyscrapers, a major hurricane could send the Atlantic Ocean surging into the nation's largest city, flooding Wall Street, subways and densely packed neighborhoods.
As a new hurricane season starts Monday, some scientists and engineers are floating an ambitious solution: Barriers to choke off the surging sea and protect flood-prone areas.
The plan involves deploying giant barriers and gates that would move into place — in some cases rising out of the water — for storms. One proposal calls for a 5-mile-long barrier between New Jersey and Queens.
No one has formally proposed the structures, which would require extensive government reviews and billions of dollars.
But a first-ever conference on the subject this spring drew 100 researchers and engineers, who provided various conceptual designs. City emergency management officials say they're interested in hearing more if details develop.
Some scientists have questioned whether the barriers would be environmentally sound and socially equitable. But proponents say the structures could offer the best chance of preventing catastrophe in a city with hundreds of miles of shoreline, nearly 8.3 million residents and a vast web of crucial underground infrastructure.
New Yorkers are "living under the volcano, and people haven't thought about it," says Douglas Hill, an engineer who began discussing the idea several years ago with Stony Brook University oceanography professor Malcolm J. Bowman.
Warnings that New Orleans faced disaster from a major hurricane proved devastatingly true, they note, when Katrina struck in August 2005. The storm breached levees, flooded most of the city and killed more than 1,500 people in New Orleans and elsewhere.
The next year, former National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield told a congressional committee that "it is not a question of if a major hurricane will strike the New York area, but when."
The city has been hit before, including by a September 1821 hurricane that raised tides by 13 feet in an hour and flooded all of Manhattan south of Canal Street — an area that now includes the nation's financial capital.
Depending on its track, a Category 3 storm — with sustained winds of 111 to 130 mph, akin to an infamous 1938 hurricane that swept through nearby Long Island — could produce a storm surge as high as 25 feet in some parts of the city. Officials estimate as many as 600,000 people's homes could be flooded, and 3 million would have to evacuate because of flooding and other perils; economic loss estimates top $100 billion.
Forecasters expect a fairly average hurricane season this year. But the year's first tropical depression, a potential precursor to a tropical storm or hurricane, formed Thursday, before the season even officially began. It wasn't expected to threaten land.
Hurricanes aren't the only flood threat. Nor'easters also have caused storm-surge problems in the city, and scientists have projected that the waters around the city could rise by 2 feet or more in the coming decades because of global warming, making coastal flooding more frequent.
The idea of barricading against storm-tossed seas is centuries old, with examples standing in places from London to Providence, R.I.
In New York, a set of barriers a mile long or less at three critical points could protect 50 square miles of the city and New Jersey, according to Hill. The locations: the Narrows, the gateway to New York Harbor near the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge; the northern end of the East River, where it meets Long Island Sound; and the southern end of the Arthur Kill, a waterway between Staten Island and New Jersey.
Barriers there would shield Manhattan and parts of the four outer boroughs but still leave large, low-lying areas exposed, especially in Brooklyn and Queens.
Some would gain protection under an alternative idea for a single, 5-mile-long barrier between Sandy Hook, N.J., and the Rockaway Peninsula in Queens — an idea devised by London-based infrastructure consulting firm Halcrow Group Ltd.
Halcrow described the estimated $5.9 billion project at a March conference at New York University's Polytechnic Institute; three other firms aired conceptual designs for pieces of the estimated $9.1 billion three-barrier network.
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Last Edit: June 01, 2009, 06:26:56 am by Bianca
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #2
on:
June 01, 2009, 06:25:38 am »
All would have gates, navigation locks or other mechanisms to let water and boat traffic flow under normal conditions — but block a 25-foot storm surge when needed. Some would have substantial walls or berms visible all the time, but one concept, from New York-based Parsons Brinckerhoff, is a wall that would lie flat and virtually invisible on the bed of the East River, pivoting up when needed. The wall would jut out of the water at an angle to block storm surges.
Deputy emergency management commissioner Kelly McKinney said the barriers were as yet too theoretical for the city to analyze but "an intriguing idea."
"If (experts) came back with more concrete details and costs and things like that, we'd be interested" in exploring it further, he said. Meanwhile, the city is taking smaller steps to prepare for potential flooding, such as moving critical pumps to higher spots in wastewater treatment plants.
While engineers say the barriers are technically feasible, questions remain about their environmental and political viability.
Structures that constrict the flow of water could alter fish migration, shellfishing beds and the salinity in the harbor, said Robert "Larry" Swanson, a Stony Brook University oceanographer.
Bigger problems could lie outside the barriers. No one has suggested yet how to pay for them, but a sizable public investment could be hard to sell to a city that would be only partly protected — let alone to a federal government that might then face similar requests from other vulnerable communities.
At least one scientist questions whether the barriers would be the best choice even for those inside.
Given the unknowns of climate change, any system designed now could prove inadequate in the future, said Klaus H. Jacob, a Columbia University climate-risk researcher. Some scientists say London's Thames Barrier, finished 26 years ago, may not be able to keep up with rising tides.
If New Yorkers relied on a barrier system, they might be forced to raise it indefinitely — or, worse, unable to do so, Jacob fears.
New Yorkers could instead prepare to "live with the water, rather than fight it," he said, by taking such steps as making tunnel entrances sealable and moving buildings' electrical and other vital equipment from basements to higher floors.
Hill and Bowman are skeptical that such measures can do enough. But for now, their goal is a full-fledged study of the barriers and possible alternatives — work they say can't afford to wait.
"We're going to have to do something," Bowman said. "Or else you retreat, and that's inconceivable. How are you going to retreat from New York City?"
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #3
on:
June 01, 2009, 08:40:29 pm »
The first casualties of this season?
Vast search of Atlantic Ocean for Air France jet with 228 people on board
A meteorologist who spoke to the Associated Press said tropical thunderstorms in the Atlantic could tower up to 15,240m (50,000ft).
"At the altitude it was flying, it's possible that the Air France plane flew directly into the most charged part of the storm - the top," said Henry Margusity, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather.com.
http://atlantisonline.smfforfree2.com/index.php/topic,18756.0.html
«
Last Edit: June 01, 2009, 08:44:32 pm by Bianca
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #4
on:
June 06, 2009, 06:42:36 am »
Thunderstorms Roll Across South Florida - Storms Knock Out Power, Delay Flights
POSTED: Friday, June 5, 2009
UPDATED: 9:35 pm EDT June 5, 2009
PEMBROKE PARK, Fla.
-- Severe thunderstorms rolled across South Florida on Friday afternoon, knocking out power to thousands and delaying flights at two airports.
Parts of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties were put under severe thunderstorm warnings periodically Friday afternoon as the storms pummeled the area with heavy rain. The National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for eastern Miami-Dade County until 8:30 p.m. Friday.
Late Friday night, Florida Power & Light said about 8,500 customers in Miami-Dade County had lost their power. In Broward County, 1,400 customers did not have power. On Miami Beach, 2,500 residents lost power.
Crews will work to restore the power once it is safe for them to do so.
Officials at Miami International Airport said the storms had prompted at least 20 delays so far.
As of 4 p.m., 24 flights at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport had been delayed. An airport official said the flights were delayed between 30 minutes and an hour.
According to the Florida Highway Patrol Web site, there were 20 active crashes in Miami-Dade County as of 6 p.m.
Local 10's Rob Schmitt reported that traffic was at a standstill on Interstate 395 at 6 p.m. Earlier in the afternoon, Schmitt reported seeing a Cadillac Escalade driving through water that reached its hood in the Brickell area.
Meteorologist Andy Tingler of the National Weather Service said South Beach got hit the worst, with an estimated 7-9 inches of rain in just a few hours Friday afternoon.
The weather service has received reports of flooding and golf-ball-size hail. According to one report, cars were beginning to float down the street. Residents also reported that water was beginning to enter homes.
Besides the rain, excessive lightning had residents seeking shelter. In the area between Miami and Miami Beach, the weather service recorded about 100 lightning strikes in a five-minute period.
The Broward Sheriff's Office said lightning also caused a small house fire in Lauderdale Lakes at about 4:15 p.m. BSO said several people were home at the time, but no one was injured. The fire caused minimal damage, police said.
The Eden Roc hotel on Miami Beach was evacuated due to flooding.
Copyright 2009 by Post-Newsweek Stations.
The Associated Press contributed to this report
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #5
on:
June 06, 2009, 10:56:12 am »
Hurricane Forecast Revised as El Nino Potential Grows
Willie Drye
for National Geographic News
June 4, 2009
The Atlantic hurricane season just began Monday, and already forecasters are tweaking their predictions.
With an El Niño looking increasingly likely later this summer, Colorado State University meteorologists lowered their hurricane forecast this week.
Jet Stream Shifts May Spur More Powerful Hurricanes "Super Storms, No End in Sight" in National Geographic Magazine Lightning Warns of Hurricanes' Most Intense Moments? Forecasters Phil Klotzbach and William Gray now predict 11 named tropical storms will form in the Atlantic Basin in 2009.
Five of the storms should be hurricanes, meaning they'd have sustained winds of at least 74 miles (119 kilometers) an hour. Two of the hurricanes should be major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 miles (179 kilometers) an hour, they said in a statement.
In April, Klotzbach and Gray had predicted 12 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. An average Atlantic hurricane season, which ends each year on November 30, sees about ten tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #6
on:
June 06, 2009, 10:57:10 am »
How El Niño Tames Hurricanes
An El Niño is an unusually warm flow of Pacific waters that in some summers forms off the northern coast of South America.
The phenomenon causes a band of upper-level prevailing winds known as the jet stream to move southward.
Blowing over the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, the jet stream creates wind shear—changes in upper-level wind speed or direction—which can disrupt hurricane formation, said Rusty Pfost, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service office in Miami.
The last El Niño formed in 2006, and that summer's hurricane season was uneventful for the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #7
on:
June 06, 2009, 10:58:19 am »
Why an El Niño Looks More Likely Now
Meteorologist Jeff Masters, producer of the Weather Underground Web site, said waters in the equatorial eastern Pacific have been steadily warming all year, and this makes it more likely that an El Nino will form.
"As of this week, it's right at the threshold of El Niño conditions," Masters said. "If it stays the way it is for three months, it will be classified an El Niño."
Still, the National Weather Service's Pfost noted, powerful hurricanes sometimes form in otherwise uneventful seasons.
Hurricane Andrew, the third most powerful recorded storm to make U.S. landfall, formed in the quiet summer of 1992.
"It only takes one storm like Andrew to make it a bad hurricane season," Pfost said.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/06/090604-2009-hurricane-forecast.html
«
Last Edit: June 06, 2009, 10:59:34 am by Bianca
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #8
on:
June 06, 2009, 02:35:13 pm »
With South America at center, a satellite image captures cloud patterns in the Western Hemisphere on the evening of May 31, 2009.
That same day Air France Flight 447 disappeared, probably off the easternmost coast of South America. The likely crash site is within the intertropical convergence zone, a belt of cloudy, rapidly changing weather that circles the globe near the Equator.
Image courtesy GOES
Project Science Office
«
Last Edit: June 06, 2009, 02:40:03 pm by Bianca
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #9
on:
June 06, 2009, 02:45:22 pm »
Air France Crash Site in Breeding Zone for Storms?
Ker Than
for National Geographic News
June 2, 2009
Searchers scouring the Atlantic Ocean for evidence of an Air France crash have spotted debris off northern Brazil's coast (map) possibly belonging to the doomed Flight 447.
The cause of Air France Flight 447's disappearance on Sunday is still unknown, but experts speculate the plane may have encountered turbulence and thunderstorms as it flew from Rio de Janeiro to Paris.
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #10
on:
June 06, 2009, 02:47:17 pm »
Air France Crash Caused by Tall, Dynamic Storm Clouds?
Northern and southern trade winds crash into each other in the globe-encircling ITCZ. By pushing warm, buoyant equatorial air upward, the convergence helps fuel the zone's almost unceasing series of thousands of small storms.
"You have one thunderstorm building and another dying. It's a constant evolution of things happening," said Larry Cornman, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.
Modern jets typically outmaneuver storms, often flying above thunderclouds.
But the storm clouds in the ITCZ can merge to create towering thunderclouds whose upper reaches are higher than most commercial planes fly.
And because the storm clouds cover an area of hundreds of square miles, it's often not practical for pilots to fly around the storms.
"So what they do is typically try to weave their way through without getting into a thunderstorm," Cornman said.
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #11
on:
June 06, 2009, 02:48:42 pm »
High Tech Little Help to Air France Flight 447?
Making matters worse, radar is of limited use in the ITCZ.
Air turbulence and strong winds often don't show up strongly, even in areas of pervasive radar coverage, and the ITCZ is not one of those areas.
"You don't have radar [towers] out there on the ground, and there aren't enough aircraft flying through there to get meteorological reports," Cornman said.
Another potential tool, satellite imagery, doesn't have sharp enough resolution or quick enough updates for pilots to make snap decisions, he added.
(Related: "Future Tech May Reduce Bird-Plane Collisions.")
In such situations, pilots often rely on one another for real-time weather reports, explained Thomas Anthony, director of the Aviation Safety and Security Program at the University of Southern California.
"Pilot reports, or 'pireps,' tells other pilots what's going on. That's where you get your reports about whether turbulence is moderate, light, or severe," Anthony said.
But the ITCZ limits the value of pireps as well, Cornman said.
"The thunderstorms are very dynamic. Even if someone flew through there ten minutes earlier, if you fly even 20 miles [30 kilometers] to the side of where they were, the conditions could be totally different," he said.
While the ITZC can be treacherous for pilots, thunderstorms alone were probably not enough to cause Air France Flight 447 to crash, experts say.
"Almost never is an aircraft accident due to a single failure," Anthony said.
"The thunderstorm may have presented the most immediate cause, but we will find there were contributing factors that led up to it and allowed this to occur."
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #12
on:
June 19, 2009, 06:43:18 am »
Season's 1st tropical depression forms in Pacific
Yahoo News
June 19, 2009
MEXICO CITY
– The first tropical depression of the Pacific hurricane season is approaching the coast of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the depression was centered about 245 miles (395 kilometers) south of the coastal city of Mazatlan at 2 a.m. Pacific time.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 kph). Forecasters say the depression could strengthen to a tropical storm with wind speeds of 39 mph or more, before it nears the Mexican coast by Saturday.
The depression was gaining speed slightly, moving toward the north-northeast at about 12 mph (19 kph).
Mexican authorities issued a tropical storm warning for the Islas Marias, a group of islands housing a prison facility about 87 miles (140 kilometers) off the Pacific coast, as well as a tropical storm watch for the Pacific coast from Topolobampo south to El Roblito.
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Bianca
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #13
on:
June 22, 2009, 06:52:50 am »
Tropical Storm Andres strengthens off SW Mexico
Yahoo News
June 22, 2009
MEXICO CITY
– Tropical Storm Andres was slowing down and strengthening off the southwestern coast of Mexico early Monday, and forecasters said it could become a hurricane in coming days.
It was too soon to tell if the storm would make landfall, but a tropical storm watch was issued from Zihuatanejo northward to Manzanillo, meaning that tropical storm conditions were possible in the next day or two.
Late Sunday night, Andres became the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which began May 15 and ends November 30 and is typically busiest between July and September.
Andres was a late arrival, forecasters said. It's been 40 years since it took so long in the Eastern Pacific season for a named storm to come along.
"Normally that season gets under way somewhat earlier," said Richard Pasch, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. "But it's not necessarily an indication that it'll be a quiet year in that basin. We've seen some years starting late and become quite active. We're just going to have to wait and see on that."
Federal forecasters have predicted a near-normal or below-normal season, with the possibility for 13 to 18 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes.
The National Hurricane Center said Andres' center as of 2 a.m. PDT Monday was about 190 miles (305 km) south of Zihuatanejo and 310 miles (505 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo.
Andres was moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 kph). Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph (85 kph) with higher gusts.
Forecasters said Andres could become a hurricane with sustained winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph) in the next 24 to 36 hours as it turned northwest and skirted along the coast.
The official forecast Monday still didn't indicate landfall, but the storm was close enough to the coast that a tropical storm warning could be required later in the day, Pasch said.
___
National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Re: HURRICANE SEASON 2009
«
Reply #14
on:
June 25, 2009, 06:32:32 am »
Andres weakens to tropical depression off Mexico
Wed Jun 24, 2009
MEXICO CITY
(Reuters)
– Andres, the first hurricane of the eastern Pacific season, has weakened to a tropical depression, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said on Wednesday.
The dissipating storm had pounded western Mexico for two days, flooding streets in the resort of Acapulco and causing big waves, one of which swept a line fisherman to his death.
On Wednesday the depression was well out to sea, located 230 miles southeast of the tip of Baja California.
"Andres is forecast to continue moving northwestward until it dissipates," the center said.
The port at the resort of Puerto Vallarta remained closed to navigation on Wednesday due to strong surf. Mexico ships very little crude oil via its Pacific coast.
(Reporting by Cyntia Barrera Diaz,
Editing by Sandra Maler)
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