Obama turns campaign to 'pivotal' Virginia
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NEW: Sen. Barack Obama to campaign with Sen. Jim Webb, a possible VP candidate
Virginia hasn't voted for a Democrat since President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964
Rural 9th Congressional District reportedly "fickle" swing district in general elections
Sen. Hillary Clinton won 9th Dictrict by 33 percentage points in February primaryNext Article in Politics »
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From Peter Hamby
CNN Political Producer
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, will kick off his general election campaign Thursday with stops in Virginia, signaling that he thinks he can turn the once solidly red state into a Democratic pickup come November.
Sen. Barack Obama's campaign says he can reshuffle the electoral map by winning such states as Virginia.
The day will culminate with an evening rally in northern Virginia, where Sen. Jim Webb, often mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate, will make his first campaign appearance with Obama.
Virginia hasn't voted for a Democrat since President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, but for more than a year, Obama's campaign has cited the state's 13 electoral votes as part of its argument that he can reshuffle the electoral map this fall. Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor said Virginia will play a "pivotal role" in the general election.
Political campaigns in the state hinge on the prosperous northern Virginia suburbs, and Obama's schedulers are aware of the region's significance: His first major campaign event since clinching the nomination will be a rally Thursday evening at Nissan Pavilion, a 25,000-seat concert venue in Bristow that in recent weeks has hosted such acts as Radiohead and Kanye West.
"Clearly, Obama believes Virginia can be very competitive, and northern Virginia is the place where Democrats really have transformed their vote, ringing up far heavier majorities in northern Virginia than previously," said Robert D. Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond.
However, the beginning of Obama's day might be just as crucial. He will attempt to make up ground in the part of the state -- rural southwest Virginia -- that he lost handily in his resounding February 12 win.
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Obama won the Virginia primary 64 percent to 35 percent, but he lost to Sen. Hillary Clinton in the 9th Congressional District by 33 percentage points, one of the first signs of a pattern of vulnerability among white working-class voters that continued to nag him through primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
David "Mudcat" Saunders, a Roanoke-based strategist who has advised politicians on how to reach out to rural voters, said southwest Virginia is "a logical place" for Obama to start because he will need to appeal to those voters in other crucial battleground states as well.
"If Virginia truly is in play, it's a practical move for him because he can get the western Pennsylvania bunch, the southeast Ohio bunch," Saunders said. "It's the same region. It's the same bunch of people; they just live in different states."
He added, "These are the people around the country who decide the president of the United States, and they are neglected. The Republicans take them for granted, and the Democrats don't try to come get 'em. God bless Barack Obama for for trying to go get 'em." Watch why Obama represents a symbol of change »
The three Democrats who have won statewide races in recent years -- Webb, Gov. Tim Kaine and former Gov. Mark Warner -- were each elected on the strength of support from liberal and moderate voters in northern Virginia. But each candidate managed to make healthy inroads among Appalachian voters as well.
Saunders noted the 9th District is a "fickle" swing district in general elections. In 2000, for instance, then-GOP Senate candidate George Allen netted 56 percent of the vote to win the election. The next year, Warner, a Democrat, was elected governor with 52 percent of the district's vote.
Warner, the front-runner to replace retiring Sen. John Warner, R-Virginia, will campaign Friday with Obama in Bristol, a town on the Tennessee border.
Kaine, one of the first prominent Democratic leaders to endorse Obama last year, will appear briefly with the presumptive nominee at the Bristow rally in northern Virginia. All three Virginia Democrats have been mentioned as possible vice presidential candidates for Obama.
But Virginia remains a challenge for the Democratic nominee, especially against Sen. John McCain, who appeals not only to mainline Republicans but also with independents and military voters and veterans.
"McCain doesn't have the loyalty among a lot of conservatives nationwide," Holsworth said, "but he is a pretty good candidate for Virginia. Virginia gets a lot of defense money, and his personal biography and his support for the military will make him a very strong candidate here."
McCain will hold a fundraiser Monday in Richmond.
Republican delegate Chris Saxman, co-chair of McCain's campaign in the state, dismissed Obama's chances of winning Virginia on a conference call organized by the Republican National Committee.
Summing up what he called Obama's positions, Saxman said: "'I don't like guns. I'm going to raise your taxes. I don't like coal.' That's a tough sell in Virginia."
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/05/obama.thursday/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
