Released: May 04, 2008
Zogby Poll: Obama Holding Lead in NC; Race Still Deadlocked in IndianaUTICA, New York - Democrat Barack Obama of Illinois holds a nine point lead in North Carolina, and has now edged ahead of Hillary Clinton of New York by a statistically insignificant two points in Indiana, a pair of new Zogby daily tracking telephone polls show.
In both states, the candidates are essentially tied among moderate voters, while Obama holds leads among mainline liberals and progressives. Clinton holds substantial advantages among conservative voters likely to cast ballots in the Democratic primary election.
After a good day of polling, Obama retains a lead in North Carolina - 48% to 39%, with 13% either unsure or favoring someone else. In Indiana, Obama won the day by a small margin and now holds 43% support, compared to 41% for Clinton, with the balance either favoring someone else or undecided.
The telephone surveys, conducted May 2-3, 2008, are the latest of Zogby's two-day daily tracking surveys that will continue until the last release Tuesday morning. In North Carolina, 600 likely Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. In Indiana, 595 likely voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll also carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.
The telephone surveys were conducted using live operators working out of Zogby's call center in Upstate New York.
In North Carolina, Obama's lead comes from strength among voters age 18 to 54, while Clinton leads among the 70 and older.
Democrats - North Carolina
5-2/3
5-1/2
4-30/5-1
Clinton
39%
37%
34%
Obama
48%
46%
50%
Someone else
5%
8%
8%
Not sure
8%
9%
8%
Obama leads by 16 points among voters age 35-54, the largest age grouping in the survey. The candidates are tied among those aged 55 to 69, another large grouping.
Clinton leads in the more rural western area of North Carolina, and in the east. Obama holds a 60% to 31% lead among voters in the so-called research triangle including Raleigh-Durham.
Clinton leads among whites, 56% to 33%, while Obama leads among African Americans, 78% to 6%. African American voters in North Carolina comprise about one-third of the electorate.
Among men, Obama retained a slim 47% to 42% lead over Clinton, and he continues to lead among women as well - winning 48% support to Clinton's 37% backing, largely on the strength of support for Obama among African American women.
In Indiana, the two Democrats remain statistically deadlocked.
Democrats - Indiana
5-2/3
5-1/2
4-30/5-1
Clinton
41%
42%
42%
Obama
43%
43%
42%
Someone else
8%
7%
7%
Not sure
8%
8%
9%
Clinton holds a sizable edge among Catholics and a small advantage among Protestant voters. She also leads among older voters, while Obama leads among all Democratic primary voters under age 55. In a key age demographic - those voters age 35 to 54 - Obama enjoys a 10-point lead. This was a group that went for Clinton in the recent Pennsylvania primary, after leaning toward Obama in the week before the election.
Clinton leads by 11 points among white voters in Indiana, which make up about 83% of the electorate. Obama leads by an enormous 10-to-1 ratio among African American voters in Indiana. He also continues to lead in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by his hometown Chicago media market, and in Indianapolis. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton continues to enjoy a double-digit lead. Obama is holding on to a nine point lead among Indiana men, while closing the gap to five points behind Clinton among women.
Pair Hold Nearly Identical Approval Ratings
In North Carolina, 73% said they hold a positive opinion of Obama, while 71% said the same about Clinton. In Indiana, 72% viewed Obama positively, while 68% said the same of Clinton.
Economy Most Important Issue, Iraq War Second
In North Carolina, 52% said the economy was the issue most important to them in decided for whom they should vote, while a similar percentage in Indiana - 51% - said the same. The second most important issue was the war in Iraq. Health care was a distant third-most important issue. Not surprisingly, just 10% of those in North Carolina and 11% of those in Indiana said the nation was on the right track. This mirrors sentiment among Democratic voters seen in Zogby polls all year long.
For a detailed methodology statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1303(5/4/2008)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
[ Click Here To Join Our Online Panel ]
[ Click Here For Telephone Poll/Survey Methodology ]
[ Click Here For Interactive Poll/Survey Methodology ]
BACK TO ZOGBY IN THE MEDIA
industries served | products & services | about zogby | real america
z files | sound bites | online polls | dear john | coming events
news | search | links | contact | home
ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL
901 Broad Street, Utica, New York 13501 USA
1600 K Street, Suite 600, Washington, DC 20006 USA
120 SE 2nd Ave., Suite 600, Miami FL, 33131
NY phone 315.624.0200
Toll Free in the U.S. and Canada 1-877-GO-2-POLL | fax 315.624.0210
Contact sales and marketing
Contact our web manager with any comments regarding this web site.
Copyright 2008 by Zogby International.http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1497
