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Obama opens 13 point lead in California, Romney up 7: Reuters

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Monique Faulkner
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« on: February 05, 2008, 10:50:02 am »

Zogby poll: Obama opens 13 point lead in California, Romney up 7Reuters
Published: Tuesday February 5, 2008

 
WRAPUP 2-A Super Tuesday showdown in 24 U.S. states


John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
Reuters North American News Service

Feb 05, 2008 07:53 EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Voters in 24 states make their choices in an unpredictable U.S. presidential campaign Tuesday, with Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a close fight and Republican John McCain aiming for a knockout blow against Mitt Romney.



On the biggest day of voting ever in a U.S. primary race, candidates in both parties compete on "Super Tuesday" for a huge haul of delegates to this summer's nominating conventions.

Clinton, a New York senator, tried to hold off a late surge by Obama, an Illinois senator who has cut into her once commanding leads in opinion polls nationally and in some states in the coast-to-coast voting.

"The fact that we've made so much progress I think indicates that we've got the right message, and the question is are we going to be able to pull some states out," Obama said on NBC. "No matter what happens though, we're probably going to see a split decision tonight."

More than half of the total Democratic delegates and about 40 percent of the Republican delegates are up for grabs on Tuesday. Georgia is the first state to end voting at 7 p.m. EST , although West Virginia Republicans will make their choices at a convention earlier in the day.

Opinion polls show a tight Democratic race in many states, but a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll showed Obama opening a 13-point lead on Clinton in California, which alone has 441 delegates to the nominating convention -- more than one-fifth of the total needed to win.

U.S. stock futures fell slightly, reflecting caution before Super Tuesday voting.

Among Republicans, McCain had solid leads in most of the big battleground states. But McCain, an Arizona senator, and Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, changed their plans so they could make late dashes to California, where opinion polls showed a tighter contest.

"I'm happy that we're doing as well as we are, but this could be a long night," McCain said on NBC.

A new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll showed Romney up by 7 points in California, although McCain held commanding double-digit advantages in New York and New Jersey.

Clinton and Obama, who had split the first four significant contests, used Monday to hunt for support in delegate-rich Northeast states. Both campaigns spent heavily on final advertising sprees from coast to coast.

"It is unprecedented. We are all kind of guessing about what is going to mean because it has never happened before," Clinton said on ABC.

With the pair running close, aides tried to lower expectations and predicted a lengthy Democratic battle extending to Ohio and Texas in March and Pennsylvania in April.

Because Democrats distribute delegates in proportion to their vote statewide and in individual congressional districts, candidates can come away with large numbers of delegates even in states they lose.

A LONG CONTEST

"The nominating rules of our party are really designed to prolong a contest between two strong candidates," Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said. "Many of us will be making our reservations for Texas and Ohio and perhaps Pennsylvania and beyond that."

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe cited Clinton's once commanding leads in many of the 22 states holding Democratic contests.

"We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states," he said in a memo to reporters. If Obama wins a few and stays within 100 delegates of Clinton on Tuesday, he said, "we will have met our threshold for success."

In contrast, many Republican contests are winner-take-all when awarding delegates, meaning a strong day by McCain could give him a commanding lead.

McCain said in Boston he hoped "to do well enough to hopefully draw this process to a close, but if not we'll be prepared to continue to go out and campaign."

The campaign battle flared again on Monday as McCain and Romney questioned each other's conservative credentials. McCain unveiled a new ad accusing Romney of running in Massachusetts against former Republican President Ronald Reagan's record.

"Mitt Romney was against Ronald Reagan before he was for him," the ad's announcer said.

Romney has tried to take advantage of conservative qualms about McCain's views on taxes, immigration and campaign finance reform. He unveiled his own ad saying McCain agreed with Hillary Clinton on topics like immigration, taxes and conservative judges.

"Don't we need a leader who agrees with conservatives?" the announcer asked.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the first contest in Iowa, also remains in the Republican race, and has siphoned conservative votes from Romney in some contests. He is aiming for a strong showing in the South. (Additional reporting by Jeff Mason, Claudia Parsons, Steve Holland, Andy Sullivan, Donna Smith; Editing by Vicki Allen) (For more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/)

Source: Reuters North American News Service

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Zogby_poll_Obama_opens_13_point_0205.html
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Monique Faulkner
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« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2008, 10:51:07 am »

Released: February 03, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain on a Roll; Clinton, Obama Neck-and-Neck in Key Super Tuesday States


Pollster John Zogby: “The Mac Attack appears ready to launch on Super Tuesday. McCain’s leads are commanding, except for in California where Romney leads in Southern California and among women, investors, and voters over 50. Romney holds a double digit lead there among conservatives and leads 56%-18% among very conservative voters. Romney also leads among white voters and among those who say that the war on terror and immigration are top issues.
“McCain will do well because of his big leads in the other states and because of winner-take-all states. But Romney may at least have a strong showing in California. In Missouri, Huckabee is in second place by virtue of strong support with conservative and (especially) very conservative voters.
“On the Democratic side, California, Missouri and New Jersey are so close. Obama’s lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).
In Missouri, Obama has solid leads in the St. Louis region (16 points), with Independents (7 points), young voters (16 points), and African Americans (62%-26%). He also leads among moderates and men. Clinton leads in Kansas City (7 points), in the Southwest (16 points), and among liberals (8 points), women (5 points), and among voters over 65 (25 points).
“Obama leads in both Northern and Southern New Jersey, among men, and among African Americans (74%16%), while Clinton again holds Hispanics (19 points), whites (10 points), moderates (8 points), liberals (8 points), Jews (22 points), women (9 points), and voters over 65.
“It is all about delegates and these numbers suggest that both candidates get respectable votes and a lot of delegates.”
Key Super Tuesday States by the Numbers:
New Jersey Republicans
 
Republicans   1-31/2-2      
McCain   54%      
Romney   23%      
Huckabee   6%      
Paul   4%      
Undecided/someone else   13%   
Sample: 870 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
New Jersey Democrats
 
Democrats   1-31/2-2      
Clinton   43%      
Obama    42%      
Gravel   1%      
Undecided/someone else   14%   
Sample: 868 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
New York Republicans
 
Republicans   1-31/2-2      
McCain   49%      
Romney   23%      
Huckabee   8%      
Paul   6%      
Undecided/someone else   13%   
Sample: 974 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.3 percentage points
Georgia Democrats
 
Democrats   1-31/2-2      
Clinton   28%      
Obama    48%      
Gravel   1%      
Undecided/someone else   23%   
Sample: 940 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.3 percentage points
Missouri Republicans
 
Republicans   1-31/2-2      
McCain   36%      
Romney   22%      
Huckabee   27%      
Paul   4%      
Undecided/someone else   11%   
Sample: 868 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
Missouri Democrats
 
Democrats   1-31/2-2      
Clinton   44%      
Obama    43%      
Gravel   1%      
Undecided/someone else   13%   
Sample: 877 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
California Republicans
 
Republicans   1-31/2-2      
McCain   34%      
Romney   37%      
Huckabee   12%      
Paul   5%      
Undecided/someone else   13%   
Sample: 1,185 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percentage points
California Democrats
 
Democrats   1-31/2-2      
Clinton   41%      
Obama    45%      
Gravel   1%      
Undecided/someone else   15%   
Sample: 1,141 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percentage points
For a detailed methodological statement on this polling, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1271
(2/3/2008)


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Volitzer
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« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2008, 01:39:28 pm »

http://knowbeforeyouvote.com/
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