Keys to victory on Super TuesdayStory Highlights
CNN Political Unit: Clinton has dominated the overall women's vote
Obama wins among black women and African-Americans in general
McCain voters by and large say the war in Iraq is their top issue
"Change" is a key concept in the 2008 race for the White House
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The CNN Political Unit took a look at what dynamics could mean victory -- or defeat -- for the various candidates as they slug it out on Super Tuesday. Here's a scorecard to keep in mind as results roll in.
(CNN) -- ISSUES FOR THE DEMOCRATS:
Republican presidential candidates debate in Los Angeles last Wednesday.
1 of 2 How did the overall female vote play out?
Except in Iowa and South Carolina -- states won by Barack Obama -- Hillary Clinton has dominated the overall women's vote by leading among white and Latino women. But Obama wins among black women, part of his overall command of the votes of African-Americans. If Obama makes inroads among women outside the black community, it could spell trouble for Clinton.
Who did black voters choose?
Obama's win in Iowa in early January showed white Americans would support a black man for president -- and huge numbers of African-Americans, many of whom had supported Clinton in the past, moved to the Obama camp. Look for more of the same in Tuesday's primaries, particularly in the South, where larger percentages of black voters could propel the Obama to victories in such states as Georgia and Alabama.
How did the Latino vote go?
Early in the primary season, the Latino vote has gone heavily for Clinton. She took 64 percent in the Nevada caucuses, according to voter surveys, compared with 26 percent who voted for Obama. In the Florida primary, Clinton's edge among Latino voters was 59 percent to 30 percent. If Clinton maintains that edge on Super Tuesday, it would put Obama in a hole in states that have large Hispanic populations, from California and Arizona to New York and New Jersey.
How did white male voters vote?
Clinton took the white male vote in all the early contests but one -- New Hampshire, where Obama won. Exit polling data has shown fairly consistent support for Clinton among white men -- Obama will need to make strides among this voting bloc to come out on top in the run for the nomination.
Is Obama still dominant among young voters?
Obama has energized young Americans, and they have turned out overwhelmingly for him, while Clinton's voters have been primarily 45 and older. Look to see if these trends continue, and if Obama's campaign draws even more young voters to the ballot box.
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Health care, Iraq and the economy: Still the same?
Voters in every primary and caucus have named the economy their top issue, followed by health care and the war in Iraq. Generally, the voters who named the economy and health care as their top concerns picked Clinton, while those who were most concerned about the war chose Obama, perhaps a reflection of their concern about Clinton's initial vote in favor of giving President Bush the power to go to war.
Which candidate's key quality was more important?
The buzzword is change. Exit poll data in all the previous races said the top quality they looked for in a candidate was his or her ability to bring change. And Barack Obama voters dominated that area. Clinton supporters typically said experience was the quality they looked for in a candidate. With all the candidates -- Democrats and Republicans alike -- claiming to the be the candidate of change, Obama has staked his campaign on it with the slogan "Change we can believe in."
ISSUES FOR THE REPUBLICANS:
Which way did Latino voters vote?
For Republicans, the Latino vote has split in the only two races with a significant enough demographic to count. Mitt Romney won the Hispanic vote in Nevada, while John McCain took that vote in Florida. Hispanics will likely count again in New York, New Jersey, California and Arizona -- McCain's home state. But in the past, the Latino vote has largely gone Democratic, and whether they will play a role in the GOP decision in those states remains to be seen.
How did conservatives vote?
McCain has come under attack from both Romney and Mike Huckabee on his conservative credentials -- both saying the former Vietnam War POW is almost a liberal, and many conservative radio talk show hosts have joined the fray. Conservative voters have tended to vote for either Romney or Huckabee in the early contests. If the vote stays that way, it may be a long road to Minneapolis-St. Paul in September.
Evangelical voters -- did Huckabee dominate?
Mike Huckabee has largely dominated the evangelical vote, but Mitt Romney also has also made a strong showing. McCain generally tops those who say they are not evangelicals. But in two states -- New Hampshire and Florida -- McCain ran at least as well as his two main rivals for those votes. Evangelical voters could have a strong influence in several Super Tuesday states, including Georgia, Alabama and Huckabee's home state, Arkansas.
For those concerned about the economy as the top issue, how did they vote? Immigration?
McCain voters by and large say the war in Iraq is their top issue, although in South Carolina and Florida he tread into Romney territory, coming out on top with voters who said the economy was their main issue. If that trend continues and economy voters move toward McCain, Romney -- who touts his business experience on the campaign trail -- could have some serious problems on Tuesday. Voters have consistently named the economy as their most serious concern in exit polling data, while illegal immigration has consistently come in second. Voters most concerned about that issue have so far split between Huckabee and Romney.
Age-wise, who broke for who?
Voters of all ages have been all over the map in early GOP contests, according to the exit polls. Huckabee, who won Iowa, won all the age groups there. McCain won all age groups in New Hampshire -- where he took his first victory -- except for those 65 and older, who went for Romney. In Michigan, where Romney won, the numbers were reversed with McCain taking the 60 plus crowd. In South Carolina, where McCain eked out a close win over Huckabee, his support came primarily from those 45 and older, while voters 44 and younger went for the former Baptist preacher. And in Florida, McCain voters tended to fall into the 18 to 29 or 45 and above range, leaving Romney in the middle with voters 30 to 44 years old.
What was more important: personal qualities or issues?
Romney voters say issues are more important than personal qualities, while McCain voters say it's the other way around, according to polling data from the early contests.
Who got the Republican change vote?
"Change" is a key concept in the 2008 race for the White House. For Republicans, it's a fine line -- change means something different from a Republican administration, admittedly mired in some very low polling numbers. John McCain has been in the man for those unhappy with the Bush administration so far in this election season, despite his support for Bush's latest Iraq strategy. Those happy with the way the president is handling his job have tended to pick Huckabee or Romney. Democrats are already on the record as ready for a big change from the Bush years -- if McCain remains the front-runner after Super Tuesday, it could signal that President Bush will be largely irrelevant in the general election campaign. E-mail to a friend
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