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Analysis: Candidates up against powerful movements

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Kristina
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« on: February 07, 2008, 11:57:14 am »

Analysis: Candidates up against powerful movements

Story Highlights
Obama received support of men, young voters, African-Americans

Clinton garnered support of women, older voters, whites, Latinos

Obama part of movement advocating idealistic, post-partisan approach to politics

McCain up against conservative movement; he insists he is a part of it


Next Article in Politics »


 Read  VIDEO
By Bill Schneider
CNN senior political analyst
     
(CNN) -- Some big wins but no knockouts. That's the bottom line for both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John McCain.



 
Sen. Hillary Clinton won the support of women voters in the Super Tuesday contests.

 1 of 3  As the campaign moves beyond Super Tuesday, both contenders face the same problem: They're both running against a movement. And that's never easy. Movements have passionate supporters who don't like to make deals.

Look at the split in the Democratic Party, among voters polled in 16 primaries on Super Tuesday.

Men voted for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Women voted for Clinton.

Young voters were for Obama. Older voters were for Clinton.

Whites and Latinos were for her. African-Americans were for him.

Democrats who didn't go to college were for her. College-educated Democrats were for him.  Watch who voted for whom and why »

Obama is the successor to a long line of New Politics Democrats who advocated an idealistic, post-partisan approach to politics. Eugene McCarthy (1968), George McGovern (1972), Gary Hart (1984), Michael Dukakis (1988), Paul Tsongas (1992), Bill Bradley (2000) and Howard Dean (2004) all ran against the politics of the past.

So does Obama. He said at CNN's Democratic debate in Los Angeles on January 31, "I don't think the choice is between black and white, or it's about gender or religion. I don't think it's about young or old. I think what is at stake right now is whether we are looking backwards or we are looking forwards. I think it is the past versus the future."

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Obama appeals to well-educated liberals who want a high-minded approach to politics that rises above crass partisanship. Anything that reminds them of the "Clinton wars" of the 1990s is a turnoff -- very likely including Bill Clinton himself.

When Democratic primary voters were asked which candidate would do the best job of unifying the country, Obama was preferred over Clinton 50 to 39 percent.

There is, however, one big difference between Obama and previous New Politics Democrats. None of his predecessors got many black votes. A movement that allies upper-middle-class liberals and black voters looks unusual -- and powerful.

Especially because it has an issue.

Democrats who said their top issue was the economy went for Clinton. Democrats who said their biggest concern was the war in Iraq went for Obama.

"I will offer a clear contrast as somebody who never supported this war -- thought it was a bad idea," Obama said in the Los Angeles debate. "I don't want to just end the war, but I want to end the mind set that got us into war in the first place."

Clinton, on the other hand, has tried to minimize her differences with Obama on Iraq. She said during the debate, "I certainly respect Senator Obama making his speech in 2002 against the war. And then when it came to the Senate, we've had the same policy because we were both confronting the same reality of trying to deal with the consequences of George Bush's action.''

McCain is also facing a movement: the conservative movement, which has controlled the Republican Party since Ronald Reagan. The GOP front-runner insists he's part of that movement.

"I enlisted as a foot soldier in the Reagan revolution," McCain says in a campaign ad in which the Arizona senator is described as "John McCain, the true conservative."

But McCain won the Republican primary vote on Super Tuesday without carrying conservatives. Southern conservatives voted for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Northern conservatives voted for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.  Watch how McCain lines up on some key conservative issues »

That's one reason McCain won: Happiness in politics is a divided opposition.


McCain did best with moderate Republicans. He carried the roughly one-third of Republican voters who support abortion rights, even though he has always been staunchly anti-abortion. He carried the roughly one-third of Republicans who are antiwar, even though he is a enthusiastic supporter of Bush's troop build-up in Iraq.

That's one reason movement conservatives are wary of McCain. He hangs out with the wrong kinds of people. E-mail to a friend

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/election.movement/index.html
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"Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances."

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Kristina
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« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2008, 11:59:44 am »

Analysis: McCain clear leader; split decision may help Obama

Story Highlights
Sen. John McCain scores victories from coast to coast, including California

McCain's delegate lead after Super Tuesday may make it difficult for rivals to catch up

Sen. Hillary Clinton wins big states, but Sen. Barack Obama carries more states

Long primary fight may help Obama in showdown with Clinton, analyst says


Next Article in Politics »


 Read  VIDEO  PHOTOS INTERACTIVE EXPLAINER
     
(CNN) -- Super Tuesday positioned Sen. John McCain as the clear Republican front-runner, while a split decision in the Democratic race may eventually help Sen. Barack Obama, according to CNN's political analysts.


 
Sen. Barack Obama may benefit from a long primary fight with Sen. Hillary Clinton, one analyst says.


 1 of 2 more photos »  McCain extended his lead in the GOP race with impressive coast-to-coast wins from New York to California, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee carried states in the South. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won seven races, including his home state of Massachusetts.

"I think we did achieve clarity. John McCain will be the Republican nominee," CNN analyst Jeffrey Toobin said. "Mike Huckabee did better than a lot expected. If you look at the delegates, there is no way either Huckabee or Romney can catch up. I think we did learn that much."

The Arizona Republican has more than a 300-delegate lead over his nearest rival, Romney, but he wasn't able to capture enough delegates to place a definitive lock on the nomination.

"We had two front-runners who couldn't put it away tonight," said David Gergen, a CNN senior political analyst. "A lot of people thought John McCain would be able to put it away. He simply did not do that."  See how CNN's analysts view the GOP race »


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Gergen added that McCain "hasn't made the sale, hasn't closed the case with conservatives. I still think, because he can divide and conquer, he is likely to win the nomination."  Watch an analysis of how conservatives voted »

According to exit polls, conservatives preferred Romney to McCain -- 38 percent to 31 percent -- with 24 percent choosing Huckabee. Conservatives made up 63 percent of the Republican primary voters.

McCain was the clear favorite among GOP voters who identified themselves as moderates and liberals, winning 54 percent and 56 percent of those groups, respectively. Moderates made up 27 percent of Republican primary voters, and 10 percent said they were liberals.

Romney, who tried to rally conservatives disenchanted with McCain, may have been the big loser Tuesday, said Gloria Borger, also a CNN senior political analyst.

"This is not a great showing for Mitt Romney. Obviously Huckabee has upstaged him. Huckabee upstaged him in the South. Huckabee upstaged him in every way," Borger said.

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The Republicans now turn their attention to the Louisiana primary and Kansas caucuses Saturday and the primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia next Tuesday.

Super Tuesday settled little in the Democratic race. When the polls opened, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Obama were neck and neck, and at the end of the day, they remained so.  Watch why the Democrats have a tough race ahead »

Clinton scored significant wins Tuesday in eight states -- including California, New York and Massachusetts -- and won more delegates.  View which states Clinton and Obama won »

"I think you have to say winning California for Hillary Clinton is the tone setter for the evening. Imagine if Hillary Clinton had lost California," Borger said.

But Obama won more states, 13, and leads Clinton in pledged delegates, according to CNN calculations. Obama also counted Missouri, a national bellwether state, among his victories, and the Illinois Democrat has been on a fundraising tear. In January, he raised $32 million, his campaign reported.

"Heading into the next states ... Barack Obama has a money advantage," Borger said. "And now Hillary Clinton wants to debate every single week because she doesn't have the money to compete with him for paid media. I think we'll be seeing a lot more Obama and Hillary Clinton one-on-one."

The Democratic campaigns now turn their attention to the Louisiana primary and Nebraska and Washington caucuses Saturday, the Maine caucuses Sunday and the so-called Potomac primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia next Tuesday.

The candidates also have circled February 19 when Wisconsin holds its primary, March 4 when voters in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont head to the polls, and April 22 in Pennsylvania.

While failing to win the biggest prizes of California and New York, Obama should see many positive trends in the Super Tuesday results as he battles Clinton, the presumptive nominee a few months ago.

"On the Democratic side, my sense is we're going into two, three weeks now which will probably favor Obama," Gergen said.


"There is a sense the longer this goes on, the more it favors the challenger, the more it favors Barack Obama," he said.

"For the first time it becomes possible that neither Hillary Clinton nor Obama will go into a convention with enough votes to win. They may be short." E-mail to a friend

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/06/super.analysis/index.html
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"Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances."

Thomas Jefferson
Volitzer
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« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2008, 01:42:23 pm »

Yeah the truth(s) movement !!!!!!!!
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Volitzer
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« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2008, 01:43:22 pm »

www.knowbeforeyouvote.com

 Smiley
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