Giuliani's Florida Win Appears In Danger/Giuliani Fading In California

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                                           Giuliani's Florida win appears in danger




By LIZ SIDOTI and JENNIFER LOVEN,
Associated Press Writers

DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla. - Rudy Giuliani splurged on Florida, lavishing time and money on a high-risk **** that the state would vault him to the Republican presidential nomination.
 
Five days before his make-or-break primary, all that last year's national front-runner has to show for the love he's given the Sunshine State is a diminished standing.

"We are gaining support. I think you'll see that over the next few days," Giuliani insisted Wednesday, hours before a new poll showed him trailing John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Florida was supposed to be "Rudy Country." His game plan called for playing down earlier-voting states for a laser focus on Florida and its 57-delegate prize. He pumped more than $3 million into advertising and planted himself here, counting on a win to give him unbeatable momentum going into the voting by nearly two dozen states on Feb. 5. The nomination was to follow.

All that now is in danger.

McCain and Romney grabbed headlines by winning states that voted earlier; Giuliani won nothing and stayed out of the picture. Polls this week, even in his home state of New York, an expected bulwark for him on Feb. 5, showed him tied or behind. His once huge advantage in California is no more, either.

In Florida, a new poll shows McCain and Romney neck-and-neck for the lead, with 25 percent and 23 percent, respectively, while Giuliani and Mike Huckabee trail at 15 percent. More than one-fourth of the likely voters surveyed between Sunday and Tuesday — 27 percent — said they still may change their minds. The poll was sponsored by the St. Petersburg Times, The Miami Herald and Bay News 9.

Undeterred, Giuliani said, "We are going to accomplish it against the odds."

He argued that his message just needs a little more time to sink in. He's the only Republican supporting a national catastrophic insurance fund important to many hurricane-weary and cash-strapped Floridians, he has what he calls the largest tax-cut proposal of any candidate and says he has the most relevant government experience.

"As these ideas seep through, I think we're going to do well here," Giuliani said.

It's possible that absentee and early voters could give Giuliani a bump in Tuesday's primary. He has get-out-the-vote programs catering to both, and these voters would have cast ballots before Giuliani's decline and McCain's ascent. He's also counting on a large number of New York retirees in Florida to carry him to victory, but its unclear how many are registered to vote, let alone as a Republican.

This isn't the first time Giuliani has tried to compete only to hit a rocky patch.

He peppered Iowans with mailed campaign literature and some $300,000 in radio advertisements, only to finish sixth behind little-known Texas Rep. Ron Paul in the leadoff contest. New Hampshire's primary proved embarrassing as well with more than $3 million spent on ads and mail and countless visits — and a fourth-place showing.

"Everywhere this guy has gone, he's faded," said GOP strategist Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster.

As polls shifted, Giuliani has changed his story on Florida's importance.

"It's all about Florida," he said Monday. Now, his campaign says the state merely is an "important" part of the race — though it's unclear whether he has the money to be competitive later.

Senior aides have forgone paychecks this month. Giuliani was getting beat 2-1 earlier this week in TV-ad spending in several of the state's expensive media markets; he poured more money to his buys late Wednesday, which may have brought him to parity.

Alone for weeks in Florida, Giuliani taunted his opponents Saturday as they competed in South Carolina. "We're waiting for you," he said then.

Judging from the last few days, he would just as soon have them leave again.

Giuliani faced crowds that were a bit flat and small early this week. He got polite applause in a large but half-empty community hall in Sun City Center, where retirement is the local industry. And only a few dozen people showed up at the aptly chosen Presidential Ballroom at Church Street, a banquet facility near downtown Orlando.

He took precious time away from Florida on Tuesday to fly to New York to collect campaign cash, leaving his schedule light — only four public events in three days. He devoted other time to media interviews and cutting a final Florida ad.

Earlier this week, Giuliani's campaign also appeared to squander a golden opportunity when McCain said he does not support the federally backed catastrophic insurance fund. Instead of seizing on the comment himself, Giuliani left it to aides and surrogates who got little attention. He rolled out an advertisement seeking to strike a contrast with the Arizona senator — but it didn't name McCain and was aimed only for the Internet, not the vastly wider reach of TV. On Thursday, his campaign announced that the spot would, indeed, be broadcast on TV.

At one point, Giuliani made an unscheduled visit to the Daytona International Speedway for a photo op of the former mayor speeding in circles in his campaign bus around the racetrack inside the empty stadium, perhaps an almost too-perfect metaphor for his effort here.

Wednesday in Estero, he even gave the impression of being bored with his own message. "I've given this lecture on leadership so many times, I could probably do it in my sleep," he said to laughter.

By evening, though, his campaign staged a rally that served as an unexpected counterpoint to the bad news.

About 1,000 people filled a plaza along the beach town of Naples' main street and crammed an adjacent Irish pub where Giuliani was just supposed to shake a few hands and make remarks.

It turned out to be the largest, most welcoming crowd Giuliani drew all week, though a request for a show of hands from an introductory speaker revealed that a sizable portion was from New York — not Florida. Despite some testy feelings about a long wait, people cheered repeatedly and mobbed the restaurant to try to get to him.

The enthusiasm had Giuliani unusually animated. He seemed to argue, without saying it directly, that the polling is bogus.

"We're going to surprise everyone," he shouted into a microphone, standing among the restaurants' outdoor tables. "And we're going to win big here. Florida is going to catapult us to the nomination because Florida is going to vote in a way that I think people don't even realize."

___

Jennifer Loven reported from Naples, Fla.

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                                                 Giuliani fading in California





By Dan Walters - dwalters@sacbee.com
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Story appeared in MAIN NEWS section, Page A3

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who for months was the first presidential choice of California Republicans, may have blown it.

A new statewide Field Poll is the latest survey to confirm that Giuliani, who sat out the first round of primaries to concentrate on the big states such as Florida and California, has slipped behind Arizona Sen. John McCain and other Republican hopefuls.

Ten months ago, Giuliani claimed more than a third of California GOP voters in the Field Poll, with McCain the only other candidate reaching double digits. But the latest survey, taken this month, found that he had slipped to 11 percent behind McCain at 22 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 18 percent – before Fred Thompson's withdrawal on Tuesday.
 
Giuliani's slippage in California first became evident last fall as presidential campaigning began in earnest, but has been especially dramatic in the last month, with his support now less than half of the 25 percent he still held in December.

The dramatic shift – McCain has nearly doubled his support in the past month after strong primary showings – illustrates the very fluid nature of the multicandidate contest and, perhaps, the fickleness of GOP voters this year.

The two major parties differ sharply in their internal dynamics, with endorsements by major party figures and constituent groups wielding great influence among Democrats while ideology and personality dominate the GOP side of the equation.

It had been something of an anomaly that Giuliani, a New Yorker who is emblematic of the more moderate GOP wing, should have enjoyed such strong support for so many months among California Republicans, half of whom identify themselves as strong conservatives. The California party has a history of voting its ideological heart and favoring candidates who have little or no chance of winning statewide elections.

To overcome that ingrained disdain for RINOs (Republicans in Name Only), Giuliani needed not only to punch up his California campaigning, but also to demonstrate in other states that he's a winner. And when he failed to nurture his thin support in California, it would appear from the Field Poll, conservatives drifted toward Romney while moderates embraced McCain, who also has been given the RINO label on occasion.

Field found that McCain has a 3-1 lead among Republicans describing themselves as moderately conservative, moderate or liberal, while Romney wins the support of strongly conservative GOP voters. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who appears to be fading after his early win in Iowa, leads among self-described born-again Christians, but his backing among those voters has declined, with Romney picking up the defectors.

With McCain claiming scarcely a fifth of California Republicans and their fickleness already evident, it's possible that the positions could change again in the remaining two weeks of campaigning before the Feb. 5 election. Were McCain to continue racking up victories elsewhere, he could solidify his lead here. Were Giuliani to revive himself next week in Florida, it's possible he could make a comeback in California, where none of the GOP hopefuls has a natural affinity.

The Field Poll found that with Thompson out, most of his support would flow mostly to either Giuliani or Romney, especially the latter; thus, with the California GOP's conservative bent, it's certainly possible that Romney could win in the state.

Finally, were California's Republicans to continue to scatter their support, the state could find itself making little difference, since the GOP awards its convention delegates on the basis of winning in the state's 53 congressional districts, rather than the statewide vote. The delegation could eventually be divided three or even four ways.



About the writer:

Call The Bee's Dan Walters, (916) 321-1195.

Back columns, www.sacbee.com/walters.

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                                                Can Giuliani Turn it Around?


                   Polls forecast a tough road to the nomination for Republican Rudy Giuliani.






By Jon Cohen
THE WASHINGTON POST

New polls out of Florida and California, the biggest Super Tuesday prize, show a steep uphill climb for Rudy Giuliani in his quest for the GOP nod.

The just released St. Petersburg Times survey has Giuliani at just 15 percent in Florida, tied with Mike Huckabee, and trailing both John McCain (at 25 percent) and Mitt Romney (23 percent). The Times' November poll had Giuliani in front of Romney by nearly 2 to 1. And the former mayor has dipped in all Sunshine State polls repeated since that time.

Giuliani's fall in California has been similarly pronounced. A Field poll out today puts his support at 11 percent among likely GOP voters, down from 25 percent a month ago. As in Florida, Huckabee scores as high as Giuliani, and both peer upwards at McCain (22 percent) and Romney (18 percent).

In the Golden State, Giuliani has slipped 11 points since December among "strong" conservatives, and 17 points among more moderate or liberal Republicans. He is down 12 points in Southern California and 18 points in Northern California.

The new polls mark a setback for the Giuliani campaign, which premised his candidacy on strong showings in Florida and in delegate-rich Feb. 5 states believed more receptive to his brand of Republicanism than Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina. (Following back-of-the-pack results in early voting, the former mayor also lost the lead he had held in national polls for the better part of the year.)

At the same time, much remains in flux and a large percentage of California Republicans, 21 percent, remain undecided about how they would vote if the election were held today. In the Times' Florida poll, 13 percent were undecided.

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                                 Giuliani fights political fall in Florida Story Highlights





Giuliani once led in Florida, but now he's fighting for third, polls show

The former New York mayor skipped early voting states to focus on Florida

Giuliani has revamped his message to focus on the economy

Florida's primary is Tuesday


     (CNN) -- Just days away from the Florida primary, Rudy Giuliani has lost his grip on the
state he once called "crucial" to his presidential chances.


Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has invested a lot of time and money in his Florida
campaign.

 Two new polls out Thursday show Giuliani competing for third in Florida -- tied with barely-
present Mike Huckabee and behind John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Giuliani, who has finished in the single digits in every contest so far, largely skipped the early
voting states to focus on Florida and the Super Tuesday states voting on February 5.

The former New York mayor once led in Florida and most national polls, but his plummeting
numbers
are causing some to question his strategy.

"Rudy has fallen like the Dow Jones industrial average," said Bill Adair, chief editor of the
St. Petersburg Times. "What's happened is he gambled on Florida and put all his chips on
Florida, and it's beginning to look like he gambled wrong."  Watch what's going on with
Giuliani in Florida »

Giuliani's poor finishes have cast doubt on his viability, Adair said on CNN's "American Morning."

"What he miscalculated on is McCain and Romney and Huckabee all come with some momentum
into Florida because they won other states, and Rudy doesn't have momentum," he said.

So far, McCain has won New Hampshire and South Carolina; Romney took Wyoming, Nevada and Michigan; and Huckabee came in first in Iowa.

Giuliani has revamped his message for Floridians. Early in his campaign, he portrayed himself as America's mayor, calling attention to his leadership following the September 11, 2001, attacks.

As concerns about the economy top the worries of Republican voters, Giuliani's launched an ad
that touts his fiscal record as mayor, and he's been touting his plans to cut taxes.

"The very best things we could do is a major stimulus package that would lower taxes, and lower
taxes dramatically," Giuliani said in Orlando, Florida, on Monday.

"And that's why I proposed the largest tax reduction in American history."

Giuliani tells anyone who will listen -- he's the one with "proven leadership." There, his challenge
is McCain of Arizona, who in a new Florida ad says, "There's no one more qualified to meet our
national security threats. I've been dealing with these issues my entire adult life."

And Romney's hoping he can resonate with Floridians when it comes to the economy.

"I will go to Washington using the experience I have in the private sector -- in the real economy --
to strengthen our economy," the former Massachusetts governor said.

Giuliani on Wednesday told CNN's Larry King that he expects the polls to break his way this weekend.

But a break might not be enough. In a survey conducted for the Miami Herald, the St. Petersburg
Times and Bay News 9, Giuliani only registers 15 percent among Republican primary voters. That
puts him in a tie with Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, who has spent little time in the
state and has only a fraction of the organization Giuliani has there.

McCain and Romney are statistically tied for the top: McCain at 25 percent and Romney at 23 percent.

Giuliani also finds himself in third place in a new American Research Group poll with 16 percent, a statistical tie with Huckabee's 17 percent. McCain leads that poll with 29 percent and Romney is second with 22 percent.

The Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points, while the ARG poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Both were conducted January 20-22.

"I think we're cracking through, but we'll see," Giuliani said.  Watch Giuliani explain why he's optimistic »

According to pollsters, there's not much leeway in Florida. Compared to the other early contests, Florida has a relatively small number of undecided voters.

"I'm not sure he can make up that kind of ground between now and Tuesday," Adair said.

Giuliani will have a chance to go head-to-head with his rivals in a debate Thursday night, where he's expected to be on the attack in attempt to show he's still viable.

Giuliani on Wednesday maintained he would win the state next Tuesday, and said his strategy of focusing exclusively on Florida over the last month will prove to be the right one.


"We are going to win in Florida, then we will be talking about exactly who made the right decisions," he said.

"This is truly a marathon, and you've got to remain focused on it that way and not get too upset about the things that go wrong or too excited about the things that go right."

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Among Republicans, John McCain tops the field with 22 percent, followed closely by Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. The biggest change in the poll is the shift from former front-runner Rudy Giuliani, whose support plummets almost by half to 12 percent since a survey last month.

While the Democratic race is really down to two candidates and the Republican field remains ``wide open,'' the poll shows that no contender in either party can claim the title of front- runner, says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. ``It's anybody's guess who's going to win.''

Democratic voters are happiest with their choices, the Jan. 18-22 poll found. Three out of four say they are satisfied with the field, compared with a little more than half of Republicans. That satisfaction also shows up in hypothetical general-election matchups; the poll has Clinton and Obama beating every Republican with the exception of McCain, who rates a statistical tie with both.