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Romney's Michigan win shakes up GOP race

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Monique Faulkner
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« on: January 16, 2008, 10:41:42 am »

Romney's Michigan win shakes up GOP race

Story Highlights
Mitt Romney gets first major win

McCain comes in second in Michigan, followed by Huckabee

Next contests on Saturday: Dems face off in Nevada, Republicans in S.C.

Clinton, the only Democratic front-runner on ballot, wins over "uncommitted"

Next Article in Politics »


 Read  VIDEO  PHOTOS INTERACTIVE SLIDESHOW
     
(CNN) -- Mitt Romney claimed a much-needed victory in Tuesday's Michigan Republican primary, making the race for the GOP presidential nomination anybody's game.



 
Mitt Romney speaks to supporters after his Michigan win. "Tonight marks the beginning of a comeback," he said.

 1 of 3 more photos »  "Tonight marks the beginning of a comeback -- a comeback for America," the former Massachusetts governor said.

"Let's take this campaign to South Carolina and Nevada and Florida and all over the country. Let's take it all the way to the White House," he said to a cheering crowd.

Some political analysts said Michigan was a must-win for Romney, who finished second in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Romney, who won the overshadowed Wyoming caucuses, is a Michigan native and his father was governor of the state in the 1960s.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Romney had 39 percent of the vote compared with Arizona Sen. John McCain's 30 percent. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had 16 percent of the vote, followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 6 percent. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had 4 percent, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani trailed with 3 percent.

Romney attributed his win Wednesday morning to "a sense of optimism that our campaign brought over the Washington-style pessimism that seems to permeate from Washington."

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"This is a state that's had some tough times recently and they wanted someone to be the leader who will fight for them, and I'll fight for any state in America that's going through a one-state recession," Romney said.

Tuesday's results show how open the Republican presidential race is. The three major contests to date have produced three different winners, and no candidate has demonstrated that he can consistently rally GOP voters to their flag.

Huckabee was able to capture the Iowa caucuses with the strong support of evangelicals, something he was unable to repeat in New Hampshire or Michigan.

McCain won in New Hampshire by appealing to independents as well as Republicans, but McCain was unable to re-create his 2000 win in Michigan when independents and Democrats voting in the Republican primary allowed him to top then-Texas Gov. George Bush.

The next contest on the Republican primary calendar comes Saturday when the the Republicans fight for South Carolina.

The wide-open GOP race is a sign of ongoing dissatisfaction with the Republican electorate, according to Ari Fleischer, former press secretary for President Bush.

"I think South Carolina will be inconclusive. It's not going to be what it used to be because it's too much of a jumble. Florida will be a vital springboard to February 5," Fleischer said.

Florida holds its primaries on January 20.

Forty-one percent of people who voted in the GOP primary said Romney's Michigan ties were important to them, according to exit polls.  Watch Romney declare victory »

Michigan has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country -- 7.4 percent, compared with 5 percent nationally -- and the top-tier Republicans vowed to make the revival of Michigan's economy a priority.

Despite receiving little support from Michigan, Giuliani was happy, according to Steve Forbes, the national co-chair of the Giuliani campaign.

Giuliani has largely skipped the early voting states and devoted his resources to Florida and the delegate-rich "Super Tuesday" states that hold primaries February 5.

"I think the McCain defeat tonight simply underscores how volatile this race is -- how fluid it is, and also underscores how wise Rudy Giuliani was to focus on Florida. We're going to do very well [in Florida]. That means he'll do well on February 5, and that means we're going to get the nomination," Forbes said.  Check out the CNN analysis of the results »

Huckabee congratulated Romney after his win, but pledged to take South Carolina's January 19 Republican primary.  Watch Huckabee say he's not disappointed »

"It looks like I won Iowa. John McCain won New Hampshire. Mitt Romney won Michigan. But ladies and gentlemen, we're going to win South Carolina," Huckabee said.

McCain, who won Michigan in 2000, told his supporters he "didn't mind a fight."

"We're ready for the challenge ahead," he said. "We fell a little short tonight, but we have no cause to be discouraged."  Watch McCain congratulate Romney »

On the Democratic side, CNN projected that Sen. Hillary Clinton would win Michigan.  See scenes from Michigan's primary »

The New York senator was the only front-runner on the ballot.

Party officials voted to strip Michigan of its Democratic delegates for its decision to schedule the primary so early.

In a show of solidarity with the party, the top-tier Democratic presidential candidates, except for Clinton, asked that their names be removed from the ballot.

But some Democratic leaders in the state urged supporters of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Clinton's closest rivals, to vote "uncommitted" in the primary.

Under state law, their supporters cannot cast write-in votes for them. But if at least 15 percent of the voters in a congressional district opt for "uncommitted," delegates not bound to any candidate could attend the national convention. That could allow Edwards or Obama supporters to play a role in candidate selection -- if the national party changes its mind and decides to count Michigan's delegates.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton had 55 percent of the vote and 40 percent of Democratic primary voters had selected "uncommitted." Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich received 4 percent of the vote.

In 2008, more than in recent campaigns, the delegate count may prove important. Narrow losses -- which still add to a candidate's delegate total -- could keep more than one hopeful in contention.

"For the first time since 1988, this is a delegate race," Clinton aide Howard Wolfson said last week.

Romney was expected to win at least 12 Michigan GOP delegates, according to CNN estimates. McCain was expected to win at least 9. Nine of 30 delegates had not yet been allocated.

Most of Michigan's Republican voters had the same thing on their mind -- the economy, according to exit polling.


A majority of Michigan Republican primary voters -- 55 percent -- said the economy is the most pressing issue facing the nation.

That compares with 18 percent who said Iraq, 14 percent who named illegal immigration, and 10 percent who pointed to terrorism. E-mail to a friend

CNN's Peter Hamby, Alexander Mooney, Rebecca Sinderbrand, Mary Snow and Alexander Marquardt contributed to this report.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/16/gop.2008/index.html
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Monique Faulkner
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« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2008, 10:43:21 am »

Analysis: Romney takes Michigan gold as S.C. fight heats up

Story Highlights
Romney captures coalition of ideological conservatives, self-identified Republicans

Key issues to Romney's advantage over McCain: the economy, native-state ties

Romney beats Huckabee with evangelicals, will split focus between Nevada, S.C.

Already getting dirty, Southern primary favors Huckabee, McCain, Thompson

Next Article in Politics »


 Read  VIDEO  PHOTOS INTERACTIVE SLIDESHOW
By Alan Silverleib and Mark Preston
CNN Washington Bureau

     
NEW YORK (CNN) -- Almost a half century ago, the state of Michigan put an auto industry executive named George Romney on the political map. On Tuesday evening, it may have put his son's presidential campaign back on track.


More than four in 10 GOP voters called Mitt Romney's Michigan ties important, and they sided heavily with him.

more photos »  Mitt Romney scored a sorely needed victory in his native state's GOP primary by assembling a formidable coalition of ideological conservatives and self-identified Republicans.

In a state suffering from the highest unemployment rate in the nation, voters turned to the businessman-turned-politician who pledged to help turn their economy around.

Not surprisingly, the economy was by far the most important issue to Michigan voters. For Romney's chief competitor in the Michigan primary, John McCain, that was bad news. Only three in 10 voters who cited economic concerns as their top priority gave their votes to McCain; almost four in 10 went for Romney.

Eight years ago, the maverick Arizona senator stunned then-Gov. George W. Bush by beating him in Michigan with a coalition based primarily on the votes of independents, moderates and liberals.

On Tuesday, McCain's coalition included the same voters, but it was noticeably smaller. In 2000, independents comprised 35 percent of the total Republican vote; Tuesday, they comprised only 25 percent. Eight years ago, moderates and liberals were 54 percent of the vote; Tuesday they were only 44 percent.

McCain also found himself fighting a losing battle against the legacy of Romney's father. George Romney served three terms as Michigan's governor in the 1960s and is fondly remembered there. More than four in 10 Republican voters said that Mitt Romney's ties to the state were important, and those voters chose Romney over McCain by a solid 41-point margin.

Finally, Mike Huckabee finished a distant third in Michigan in large part due to his disappointing showing among born-again and evangelical voters. The former Baptist minister relied on this key segment of the GOP electorate in his stunning Iowa victory and was hoping to repeat the feat in Michigan.

It didn't happen. While born-again and evangelical voters constituted almost 40 percent of Michigan's total vote, they actually broke for Romney by five points, 34 to 29 percent. Huckabee will need to perform much better with this portion of the electorate as the race for the Republican nomination now shifts to Saturday's South Carolina primary -- for most of the candidates.

McCain and Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, had already landed in South Carolina before the Michigan results were announced Tuesday -- leaving Romney alone to bask in his first major win of 2008. And Fred Thompson bypassed Michigan altogether, putting all his Southern conservative chips into South Carolina in what many believe is a make-or-break contest for his presidential campaign.

South Carolina Republicans proudly boast that the state's primary voters have sided with every eventual Republican presidential nominee since 1980 -- the beginning of the Reagan Revolution.

But Rudy Giuliani is looking to break that streak by skipping the primary altogether as he continues to pursue his Florida and Super Tuesday strategy. Romney has decided to split his time between South Carolina and Nevada -- which is holding caucuses the same day.

With three major contests having produced separate winners, the wide open race for the Republican nomination has turned into a hunt for delegates.

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"We believe we can be competitive in all of these early primary states, and Nevada is one of them," said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden, explaining the former Massachusetts governor's decision to campaign in Nevada and South Carolina in the coming days.

"I think the expectations are greater on the other campaigns in South Carolina, because they have been there for this past week. But we expect we can be competitive there. A competitive finish, a lot of people would see it as a victory, and it shows that we are competitive across the board."

A very well-connected South Carolina Republican operative, who is supporting another candidate, said Romney had been well positioned to win the South Carolina primary, but back-to-back losses in Iowa and New Hampshire took the wind out of his sails. A victory in Michigan Tuesday night came too late, the operative said.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the operative added that even though Romney worked hard over the past year to appease evangelicals' concerns about his Mormon religion, he was not altogether successful.

That said, his religion likely will not be as big of an issue in Nevada. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints estimates that there are more than 34,000 Mormons residing in South Carolina, compared with almost 170,000 living in Nevada.

Nevada has 31 delegates on the line Saturday, compared with South Carolina's 24. Romney apparently did the math.

The South Carolina primary now seems to be a battle between Huckabee, McCain and Thompson. Huckabee and Thompson are competing for the evangelical vote, while McCain is banking on his decorated military service appealing to Republicans in that patriotic state.

And McCain hopes the bridge burned between him and the evangelical community following the 2000 campaign has been repaired enough to help him pull out a win Saturday.

While South Carolina is legendary for operatives engaging in dirty campaigning, South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson noted that this is "one of the cleanest, above-board campaigns I have ever witnessed in South Carolina."

Dawson said he thinks that it has been relatively above board because "there has not been a distinct frontrunner" in the race for the nomination.

But within hours of Dawson making this statement, the McCain campaign e-mailed reporters a copy of a direct mail hit piece focusing on his time as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. And late Tuesday night, the Thompson campaign accused Huckabee's campaign of making deceptive telephone calls distorting Thompson's record to voters in South Carolina.

With only four days remaining, Dawson thinks the campaigns need to shift their focus to get-out-the-vote operations if they want to win on Saturday.


"Everyone needs to switch to get-out-the-vote efforts," said Dawson, who added he personally has already received phones calls asking him, "'Are you going to vote? Who are you going to vote for?' They are IDing the base to find out what kind of work they need to do."

"They have got 72 hours to go ahead and strike gold," he added. E-mail to a friend

All About Michigan • U.S. Presidential Election
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Volitzer
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« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2008, 12:42:36 pm »

AH the automotive connection.

They should look at the CFR connection.

Of course people in Michigan live in their own little world of delusion.
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Blood on the Mors
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« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2008, 08:41:56 pm »

I hope he wins, he's the GOP's biggest stiff.  Wink
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Volitzer
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2008, 01:33:07 pm »

He has bowed out already.

http://knowbeforeyouvote.com
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