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The 'Nobody Knows' US election


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Author Topic: The 'Nobody Knows' US election  (Read 61 times)
Monique Faulkner
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« on: December 31, 2007, 09:01:17 pm »

The first hurdle

And the voters enjoy their power.

 EARLY PRIMARY TIMELINE
3 Jan - Iowa caucus
5 Jan - Wyoming caucus (Rep)
8 Jan - New Hampshire
15 Jan - Michigan
19 Jan - Nevada caucus, and South Carolina primary (Rep)
26 Jan - South Carolina primary (Dem)
29 Jan - Florida primary



Primary and caucus dates
A recent poll suggested half of them in New Hampshire are not intending to make up their minds until the week before the contest on 8 January.

Both Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton have been waging national campaigns which might blow up in their faces.

Rudy Giuliani has remained true-(ish) to his previously held conviction that abortion should be reasonably widely available to American women. This might hurt him among conservative voters in rural Iowa, but it is close to the view of most Americans as expressed in national polls.

Hillary Clinton has voted in favour of sanctions on Iran demanded by the White House. Among her party's left wing anti-war supporters in the early primary states this caused dismay, but in the wider population it is probably the position the majority would back.

What would happen if either or both candidates came unstuck in Iowa and New Hampshire?

The traditional view is that they would crash and burn - like Howard Dean in 2004 - and we would hardly remember their names by the summer.

But these candidates might be different; they have national recognition, national campaign staff and national funds.

So Mr Giuliani could perhaps brush off early losses and focus on Florida which comes at the end of January and which he should win.

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