Dec 14, 2007
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IL14Df01.html
Strange bedfellows emerge in PakistanBy Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The runup to Pakistan's general elections next month - seen by many as the opportunity for a vital transformation of society - has been characterized by the breakup of opposition alliances and the emergence of an eclectic yet potentially powerful anti-establishment bloc which includes civil society, militants and al-Qaeda.
One of the key members of the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy, the Pakistan People's Party of Benazir Bhutto, has
struck a deal with President Pervez Musharraf; the Alliance for All Parties Democratic Movement has been rocked by the decision of Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) to contest the polls after first backing a boycott; the six-party religious alliance Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) has been jolted by the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) deciding to remain steadfast with civil society and boycott the elections.
On the face of it, the sole beneficiary of these developments is the military oligarchs as the mainstream religious and liberal political parties will now contest the elections on its terms, that is, in the absence of a constitution, which legitimizes the military anointed system.
This leaves the breakaway and anti-status quo forces free to push their own agendas and possibly rise to the fore by gaining mass support. These include the flag bearers of civil society, militants and the radical Jamaat-i-Islami, and even al-Qaeda.
In an important development, Baitullah Mehsud, the top Pakistan Taliban leader, has warned candidates not to contest the polls in the South Waziristan tribal area, even though the pro-Taliban Pashtun tribal-based Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam (JUI) led by Maulana Fazlur Rahman is the largest party in the whole tribal belt, especially in North Waziristan and South Waziristan.
So, with this call, the militants now stand side-by-side with those members of civil society - lawyers, sacked judges, doctors and journalists - demanding that the elections be boycotted, although for entirely different reasons.
Indeed, the significance of Mehsud's warning is that it is not simply about the elections; it represents the broader drive on the part of militants to consolidate the establishment of an "Islamic Emirates" beyond the Waziristans, where in large parts Islamabad's rule is effectively non-existent.
In the minds of the militants, they envisage Afghanistan and the Pashtun regions of Pakistan as part of their Islamic Emirates, and once they seize this region, they will march for the establishment of a global caliphate.
In this regard, there have been some developments.
Parts of the Durand Line, the poorly marked 2,640-kilometer border drawn in 1893 between Afghanistan and what is now Pakistan, have in the past only been recognizable by the Pakistan flags flown from buildings in border villages. Technically, some of these villages fell in Afghanistan, but the villagers chose to be considered part of Pakistan.
However, following repeated Pakistani military operations in the area against militants, many of the Pakistani flags have come down. Friday prayers in militant-controlled regions have been suspended as the region has been declared darul harb (enemy country) . And this year, the Shura of the Mujahideen has decided to celebrate Eidul Adha (one of two Muslim festivals that follows the traditions of the Prophet Araham) according to Mecca (on December 19) and not according to the Pakistan government's Eid (December 21).
This anti-establishment theater has been built up mostly in political isolation and now even Rahman's JUI has distanced itself from the militants, with both sides considering themselves rivals.
But ironically, the JI, the leading urban-based Islamic party which draws its support from Western-educated people and which has little representation in the tribal areas, now aims to become the voice of the militants, which means winning the hearts and minds of Pakistan's Pashtuns.
"This is the first time we have taken a decision based on our own convictions. While we were in the MMA, our politics was overshadowed by the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam, which was taking us nowhere," Merajul Huda, a member of the central executive committee of the JI and deputy provincial chief of Sindh province, told Asia Times Online.
"We were really in a fix. We always tried to become the voice of the people and tried to resign from Parliament on the issue of the Waziristan [military] operations, but the Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam never agreed. We tried to resign when the anti-Islamic women's protection bill was approved by the assembly, but the Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam again refused to let us resign," said Merajul.
"When Nawab Akber Bugti [former chief minister of Balochistan province] was killed in an extra-judicial killing, we tried to resign. But once again the Jamiat-i-Ulema said that he was an atheist and we should not sacrifice our seats for a non-believer.
"We tried to convince them that it was more an issue of civil rights than of beliefs, but they tried their level best to stay in the corridors of power. Now we are free and we will do our style of politics. Even on pure religious issues like the Lal Masjid [Red Mosque] operation, Jamiat stood with the government," Merajul said, referring to the military storming of the militant mosque in Islamabad in July.
Unlike the pro-Taliban JUI, which draws its support from madrassas (seminaries)and traditional tribal structures, the JI is a modern political party which derives its strength from campuses, trade unions and professional bodies.
The Islami Jamait-i-Talaba, the student wing of the JI, is the largest student union in the country and considered a nursery of the national leadership coming from the middle classes. The JI also has a sizeable presence among lawyers, doctors and engineers and has a large labor body, the National Labor Federation. The JI has a history of organizing effective street agitations.
"We faced some defections with our decision to boycott [the January elections]. One of our ex-members of Parliament has joined Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League and a few other defections are expected, but we will stand by the decision to boycott as we will gain from it. You will see that the establishment will not allow Sharif's PML to win the elections, and as a result Sharif will be a loser. Meanwhile, we will aggressively take up issues, whether it is military operations in the tribal areas or operation in Balochistan or the restoration of judiciary," Meraj said. Musharraf sacked most of the judiciary recently as he feared the courts would invalidate his victory in presidential elections.
Former premier Sharif, recently returned from exile, is the founder of the All Parties Democratic Alliance and was the driving force behind the move for an opposition boycott of the elections. This placed him as a leader of civil society. But then he changed his mind and said his PML-N would contest, so he has lost significant support. Sharif himself has been barred by the Election Commission from standing over criminal charges related to his time in government in 1999.
Adding to the political drama, Asia Times Online contacts claim that al-Qaeda will do its best to cause disruptions through armed opposition.
Battlelines have now been clearly established. On the one side is the military establishment, which has under its wing most mainstream political forces. On the other side are the militants, the JI and several fringe parties and civil society - and al-Qaeda. Strange, but potentially powerful bedfellows.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
