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http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/11/14/healthscience/web.1114meteor.php?page=1

 
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An Inconvenient Truth

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Author Topic: An Inconvenient Truth  (Read 6843 times)
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19Merlin69
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« Reply #165 on: April 08, 2007, 07:08:36 pm »

The process of GW and it's causes are quite complex and it is very obvious that no-one really knows what degree man's

contribution really has on it.   Climatic changes on a global scale OTOH have been proven to occur in varying cycles

and degrees since the planet formed and will most likely continue until the planet ends. 

I have an article that quotes a famous and reputable "Pro-Global Warming Scientist" that sums up my point quite nicely.  I make it clear up front that this guy is a friend of mine and therefore I am a bit biased to accept his viewpoint.  Having said that, he and I do disagree on a number of things, but isn't that what friends are for? 

Anyway, here's the section of the article that I wanted to share:

Various models running different scenarios predict sea-level rise as little as 18 centimeters (seven inches) or as much as 59 centimeters (23 inches). None of these models, however, completely includes the potentially greater contributions to such a rise from the melting of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. Climate modelers do not include effects on land-based ice in these regions because they cannot reduce them to equations, such as x amount of extra heat equals y amount of melting.

Greenland's glaciers are melting and moving faster on average, but those shifts do not follow a simple, upward linear trend. For example, Kangerdlugssuaq glacier has lost mass from melting and, in its thinner form, has less weight to speed the flow of its ice toward the sea. Additionally, roughly 80 percent of its recent increase in water discharge occurred in just one year before stabilizing, according to Ian Howat of the University of Washington. As glaciologist Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University notes: "The ice sheet is losing mass, this loss has increased over time, [and] it is not the dominant term in sea-level rise--but it matters." In fact, many variables come into play in Greenland's ice sheet. "You're trying to figure out what is going on with an immense, remote and complex beast, and it isn't easy," Alley adds.

And other important factors, such as the convection that forms thunderstorms, can only be approximated because they occur on too small a scale. "There is no way that the models are able to directly simulate these things," says climate modeler Stephen Zebiak of Columbia University. "So researchers just try to capture the net effect of the processes."

Despite these flaws, global models are increasingly credible: when fed the factors at play in climate over the past 100 years, they accurately match what has been observed to occur. Such precision gives scientists greater confidence in their ability to assign probabilities to the future. And all models agree that the world will warm at least 0.4 degree Celsius in the next 20 years.

I think I have included Rich's comments before, but  don't remember if they were here or the other forum.  He's a sharp guy who I have a lot of respect for - he's honest and his viewpoint is a very 'measured' one.  Note the section I increased the font on.  Read exactly what he said - not what you think/want him to say.  It's a great discussion point for later. 

Here's the link to the whole article:  http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&articleID=5B9E73AD-E7F2-99DF-3F71280BCE41ED77&colID=5



Theorizing who or who is not Merlin's wife will have very little impact on GW.  These are the tools and techniques of someone who has nothing better to do than strap on a suicide belt and blow himself up in the local university because he has  nothing better to offer.

It's an attempt to divert the discussion from anything but the questions asked.  No need to waste time thinking or researching when you can just disparage the person asking the question.  Hey - this sounds like what Jason keeps accusing me of with AL Gore (but has no proof).  You nailed it when you used the word "tactic".  I can't honestly say that none of the others (Allison, Brandon, Byron, Jason, etc.) would stoop to this (because one other has) but it is a rarity.  Leave it to him to go rushing headlong into a gunfight carrying a whiffelbat.
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