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Box Office: 'Captain Marvel' Trolled The Trolls With A $455M Global Launch

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« on: March 11, 2019, 01:52:48 am »

Box Office: 'Captain Marvel' Trolled The Trolls With A $455M Global Launch
Scott Mendelson
Scott Mendelson
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Hollywood & Entertainment
I cover the film industry.

'Captain Marvel'Walt Disney

https://www.forbes.com/



At this point, the notion of a new Marvel Cinematic Universe movie opening with a boffo Fri-Sun debut is barely news anymore, as it's now akin to a new Tyler Perry-as-Madea movie opening with $25 million. Still, even by Marvel's standards, Captain Marvel flew higher, further and faster than its relative competition. The Brie Larson/Samuel L. Jackson/Reggie the Cat sci-fi adventure opened with $153m in North America this weekend, which is the second-biggest solo superhero non-sequel launch behind Black Panther ($202m in 2018). It's the third-biggest March opening of all time, sans inflation, behind Batman v Superman ($166m in 2016) and Beauty and the Beast ($174m in 2017).

It's the fourth-biggest non-sequel launch behind Beauty and the Beast, Black Panther and (if it counts as a non-sequel) The Avengers ($207 million in 2012). The Anna Boden/Ryan Fleck-directed sci-fi adventure just scored the MCU’s seventh-biggest opening behind Iron Man 3 ($174m in 2013), Captain America: Civil War ($179m in 2016), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($191m in 2015), Black Panther ($202m in 2018), The Avengers ($207m in 2012) and Avengers: Infinity War ($258m in 2018). It earned a solid 2.55x weekend multiplier (it earned $53m in Saturday and around $42.6m on Sunday) and an A from Cinemascore.

So, no, the opening night bombardment of aggressively negative user reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic and IMDB were not indicative of the general moviegoing populace. I know, I'm just as shocked... SHOCKED as you are. For what it's worth, this is the fifth-biggest female-led debut weekend of all time, behind only (again, sans inflation and 3-D bumps) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($158 million in 2013 sans 3-D), Beauty and the Beast ($174m in 2017), Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220m in 2017) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($248m in 2015). Oh, and Captain Marvel is Samuel L. Jackson’s fourth-biggest opener behind the first two Avengers movies and Incredibles 2 ($184m in 2018).

Sadly, I cannot count Infinity War toward Jackson’s total since he is only in the post-credit cookie. Here’s hoping Fury is in Endgame enough for it to “count.” Ditto for Reggie the Cat, who is hoping to eclipse this personal-best milestone when she stars in Avengers: Endgame this April. So, when Goose the Cat kills Thanos, which superhero gets to say "Looks like his goose... is cooked"? I say give it to T'Challa, as Chadwick Boseman deserves a funny or two after playing it straight for two MCU movies. So, after months of speculation, rumors, manufactured controversies and the usual online huffing-and-puffing, Captain Marvel did as well as could be expected, at least for the moment.

It performed not like a standard MCU origin story (somewhere between Ant-Man and Doctor Strange), but like a true-blue mega-event movie that served conventional superhero fans and those who so desperately wanted a female-led MCU movie. For what it's worth, it earned 51% more than Wonder Woman's $103.5 million opening weekend in the summer of 2017, so by default, it's the biggest female-led superhero launch of all time. To be fair, the MCU is a trusted brand while the DCEU was still/is still on double-secret probation. I'm not expecting Wonder Woman's legs, if only because I'm expecting Shazam and Us to be better (and thus sharper competition) than The Mummy and Transformers: The Last Knight.

Still, even a 2.69x weekend-to-final multiplier (about on par with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2) puts Captain Marvel just over/under Wonder Woman's eventual $412.5 million domestic total.  Regardless, it won't even be a contest overseas (and thus worldwide). Captain Marvel earned $89.5 million in China alone, which is about what Wonder Woman earned ($90m) in total in China two summers ago. The film has already earned a whopping $455m worldwide over its opening frame, which is way more than Black Panther's $371m global launch (albeit, it didn't open in China right away and opened in North America on a Fri-Mon holiday) and the sixth-biggest global launch ever.

It currently sits just ahead of Batman v Superman ($422.5 million in 2016) and Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($450.8m in 2017), and behind only Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II ($483.2m in 2011), Jurassic World ($525.5m in 2015), Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($529m in 2015), Fate of the Furious ($541.9m in 2017) and Avengers: Infinity War ($640.5m in 2018). So unless Captain Marvel is super frontloaded like Dawn of Justice (which ended up with "only" $873m worldwide), we're probably looking at another $1 billion+ franchise-launcher for the MCU.

I’d like to think that Patty Jenkins is reading this while sitting in Hall of Doom petting an evil cat as she plots her revenge (while James Wan tries to convince her to produce a $20 million-budgeted spin-off based on Diana’s lasso or favorite hat). Let’s just consider what happens over the next month to be #WonderWoman1984Goals. Oh, fun fact: when DC Films' Shazam opens in three weeks, it is cheap enough (around $90m) that it can make as much in totality as Captain Marvel just made in its opening weekend and still be a big hit. So, in that sense, they aren't really in competition with each other.

So, for reference, the online review-bombing from trolls, bots, so-called "toxic fans" and other disgruntled folks didn't mean a damn thing this weekend. Here's what else didn't matter: folks allegedly upset about Brie Larson's request for the press junket to be more diverse than normal, alleged controversies over Brie Larson's performance (judging entirely from the trailers) and whether she should be smiling more (spoiler: she smiles a bunch in the movie and is hopefully laughing this morning), attempts to use Alita: Battle Angel as a battering ram against the latest female-led action fantasy (#YouCanAndShouldSeeThemBoth) or concerns over the comparatively obtuse marketing campaign (okay, that's a mea culpa from me on that score).

Here’s what did matter yesterday: The Marvel Cinematic Universe is the most popular cinematic franchise around, maybe the biggest ever give-or-take inflation for the first six Star Wars movies (which average out at around $750 million domestic each sans reissues when adjusted for inflation). Audiences will show up for a splashy, big-budget female-led superhero movie if that superhero is someone they want to see in theaters. Captain Marvel has earned a 79% fresh and 6.79/10 average critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s in the bottom third among MCU movies in terms of critic scores, but it’s not aggressively worse than those in the proverbial middle. With the caveat that plenty of folks will enjoy it more than me (including my kids), it’s a three-star Thor/Ant-Man-level movie that’s getting three-star Thor/Ant-Man-level reviews.

Here’s what else mattered: Captain Marvel opened a year after the MCU kicked it up a proverbial notch with Black Panther (the first comic book superhero movie to get a Best Picture Oscar nomination) and and Avengers: Infinity War making the brand even more popular. It opened after the above-mentioned tentpole drought, after Aquaman and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse mostly wrapped up their domestic runs. It was a big movie from the most popular sub-genre around and part of the most popular franchise/brand in Hollywood, with the “bonus” of being a demographically-specific event movie for people who look more like Brie Larson than Chris Pratt. Barring an unforeseen variable (like poor reviews or folks just not giving a damn about Captain Marvel), this was always going to break big.

This is still a best-case-scenario debut. Where it goes from here is merely a matter of math. Most MCU movies do 2.4x their weekend multipliers, 2.7x their weekend multipliers or 3x-or-higher weekend multipliers. So we're probably looking at a final domestic take between $368 million and $460m, with plenty of wiggle room. The overseas numbers are more of an open question, but it's hard to not see at least a 2.25x multiplier for a $1.023 billion global cume, and that's intentionally low-balling it. As much as I can't be all that excited for another scenario where a superhero movie saves the domestic box office (and easily outgrosses a flurry of female-led multiplex fare which also deserved their moments in the sun), this is a huge win for all invested parties.

Oh, and the film earned $36.1 million globally in IMAX alone, which is the fifth-biggest IMAX launch and the biggest-ever for a non-sequel. The MCU has earned $1 billion total in just IMAX auditoriums. Here's a final thought: With Marvel now opening their first minority-led superhero movie and their first female-led (solo) superhero movie to comparatively record numbers, there is (again) absolutely no excuse for them not to be the leader in highlighting blockbuster leads of all kinds (Asian, Hispanic, Muslim, Jewish, mixed-race, LGBTQIA, etc.) if they so choose to. After Black Panther and Captain Marvel, it's now only a question of whether they want to. Because the financial metrics, both in North America and overseas, clearly show that the future of the MCU is essentially everything except more white guys named Chris.

If you like what you're reading, follow @ScottMendelson on Twitter, and "like" The Ticket Booth on Facebook. Also, check out my archives for older work HERE.
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