Janilee Wolff
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« on: October 14, 2016, 10:24:22 am » |
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, Ohio. Watch CNN
Election 2016 Nation World Our Team
, Ohio. Watch CNN
Election 2016 Nation World Our Team
Swing-state polls show Trump path to White House narrowing
By David Wright, CNN
Updated 8:43 AM ET, Fri October 14, 2016
Trump trails Clinton by 11 in new poll
Trump trails Clinton by 11 in new poll
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton attends a voter registration event on August 16, 2016 at West Philadelphia High School in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Clinton warned voters not to be complacent and to work to get out the vote and maintain her lead. 02:58
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Former Mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani testifies at a U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Homeland Security hearing at the National September 11 Memorial and Museum on September 8, 2015 in New York City. 01:44
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LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 19: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) 42nd International Convention at the Las Vegas Convention Center on July 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Clinton continues to campaign for the general election in November while the Republicans hold their national convention. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) 03:16
Clinton faces big challenges in state Obama won twice
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton delivers opening remarks during a meeting with law enforcement officials at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, August 18, 2016 in New York City. 01:07
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Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump takes the stage for a campaign event at Fredericksburg Expo Center August 20, 2016, in Fredericksburg, Virginia. 03:40
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WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 16: Huma Abedin, aide to former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, arrives at a closed door hearing on Capitol Hill October 16, 2015 in Washington, DC. Abedin is beingÊinterviewed by the House Select Committee on Benghazi. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images) 02:45
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ERIE, PA - AUGUST 12: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures as he arrives to speak to supporters at a rally at Erie Insurance Arena on August 12, 2016 in Erie, Pennsylvania. Trump continues to campaign for his run for president of the United States. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images) 02:38
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LYNDEN, WA - MAY 07: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gives a speech during a rally at the The Northwest Washington Fair and Event Center on May 7, 2016 in Lynden, Washington. Trump became the Republican presumptive nominee following his landslide win in Indiana on Tuesday. (Photo by Matt Mills McKnight/Getty Images) 02:41
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YOUNGSTOWN, OH - JULY 30: Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and democratic vice presidential nominee U.S. Sen Tim Kaine (D-VA) fist bump during a campaign rally at East High School on July 30, 2016 in Youngstown, Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are continuing their three-day bus tour through Pennsylvania and Ohio. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) 02:36
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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton acknowledges the crowd as she arrives on stage during the fourth day of the Democratic National Convention at the Wells Fargo Center, July 28, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received the number of votes needed to secure the party's nomination. An estimated 50,000 people are expected in Philadelphia, including hundreds of protesters and members of the media. The four-day Democratic National Convention kicked off July 25. 01:43
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Delegates stand as US President Barack Obama speak on the third day of the Democratic National Convention at the Wells Fargo Center, July 27, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received the number of votes needed to secure the party's nomination. An estimated 50,000 people are expected in Philadelphia, including hundreds of protesters and members of the media. The four-day Democratic National Convention kicked off July 25. 01:45
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Story highlights Recent polls conducted in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan Surveys show devastating fallout from tape of Trump make lewd comments
(CNN) — A trio of state polls released this week show Hillary Clinton's northern "blue wall" holding, as she carries commanding leads across a series of key states.
The polls -- taken after the release of a 2005 recording of Donald Trump talking in a sexually aggressive manner about women -- show Clinton leading in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Coupled with Democrats' advantage in the Electoral College, the slate of polls suggests that only an extremely narrow path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency remains for Trump, who has staked his candidacy in part on flipping some traditionally Democratic states.
Additionally, a Republican National Committee source told CNN's Sara Murray Thursday that the Trump campaign decided to pull resources from the swing state of Virginia, essentially conceding the state to Clinton.
According to CNN's latest battleground map, Trump would need to win one of these states -- Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania -- to get more than the 270 electoral votes needed for victory, even if he also captured Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and every other state Mitt Romney won in 2012.
A new North Carolina poll shows Clinton and Trump running neck-and-neck and a Utah survey shows Trump with a narrow lead over Clinton.
Pennsylvania
A Bloomberg Politics poll released on Thursday found Clinton leading Trump by 9 points in Pennsylvania.
According to the poll, Clinton is ahead of Trump 48% to 39% in a four-way race in the Keystone State. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson draws 6% support, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein gets 3%.
Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania is driven by a significant advantage in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial area where some of the state's swingiest voters live. The poll found Clinton leading Trump across four suburban Philadelphia counties, 59% to 31%, with a broad range of demographic advantages.
The poll also surveyed Pennsylvania voters' opinions on the tape of Trump bragging about groping women during a 2005 "Access Hollywood" appearance. Sixty percent said the tape bothered them "a lot," a number that climbs to 80% in the suburban counties.
The poll, which was also conducted after the second presidential debate, found that Trump's performance on Sunday helped stabilize his numbers. According to Bloomberg, Trump showed "more strength on Monday and Tuesday than on the two previous days of polling."
The Bloomberg poll of Pennsylvania was conducted between October 7-11 and surveyed 806 likely voters across the state and 373 likely voters in the four suburban Philadelphia counties. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 points for the state, and plus or minus 5.1 points for the suburban counties.
Michigan
A Michigan poll released on Wednesday showed an 11-point lead for Clinton, though a large bloc of voters remains undecided.
According to the poll from the Detroit News/WDIV, Clinton leads Trump 42% to 31%, while Johnson receives 10% and Stein trails at 4%. Twelve percent say they don't know who they'll support.
As was the case in Pennsylvania, the Michigan poll found that likely voters were turned-off by the Trump tape. One-quarter of Republicans said Trump should drop out of the presidential race as a result of the recording, and the poll showed Clinton's lead expanded from 7 points in late September largely because of a collapse in Trump's support, rather than a surge for her.
Clinton's lead in Michigan is powered by a major advantage among women voters -- Clinton gets 48% to Trump's 27%. She also has an edge in "vote-rich southeast Michigan," the Detroit News reported, where she leads by 18 points.
Still, a majority of voters have unfavorable opinions of both candidates, though Clinton's favorability rating is 13 points higher than Trump.
The Detroit News/WDIV poll was conducted between October 10-11, and surveyed 600 likely Michigan voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 points.
Wisconsin
A poll from the Marquette University Law School showed a large Clinton lead in Wisconsin, where Trump actually held an edge before the release of the damaging "Access Hollywood" recording.
The poll, which was released Wednesday, had Clinton 7 points ahead of Trump, 44% to 37%. Johnson received 9% support, while Stein drew 3%.
But while the Marquette poll was conducted amid the fallout from the tape, it was completed before the second presidential debate, which other polls found had improved Trump's numbers.
who's winning?
cnn/orc
cnn poll of polls
Hillary Clinton headshot photo
47%
Clinton
Donald Trump headshot photo
42%
Trump
Gary Johnson headshot photo
7%
Johnson
Jill Stein headshot photo
2%
Stein
CNN/ORC poll, September 28 – October 2, 2016, sampling error: +/- 3 percentage points, sample: 1,213 likely voters
get more data insights
According to the survey, Trump led Clinton 41% to 40% among likely voters polled on Thursday. On Friday -- the day the Washington Post released the lewd tape -- Trump's numbers began to fall, and Clinton led 44% to 38%.
Trump's numbers really cratered over the weekend. Likely voters polled on Saturday and Sunday drove Clinton to a 19-point edge, 49% to 30%, a dramatic reversal from the one-point edge Trump held days earlier.
The shift was evident across all demographic groups, even those that favor Trump. Among men, who have heavily backed Trump, Clinton turned a 16-point deficit into a 1-point advantage by the end of the poll. And Republican support for Trump fell below 80% by Sunday, while Democratic support for Clinton settled around 90%.
Additionally, Wisconsin voters were more likely to say they were "very or somewhat comfortable" with the idea of Clinton being president than Trump (46% to 35%); more likely to say that Clinton "cares about people like me" (47% to 35%); and more likely to say Clinton "shows good judgment" (48% to 28%). However, Clinton is viewed as slightly more dishonest than Trump -- 29% say Clinton is honest, compared to 35% for Trump.
The Marquette University Law School poll was conducted between October 6-9, and surveyed 839 likely voters. The margin of error for the entire poll is plus or minus 3.9 points; the margin of error for Thursday is plus or minus 5.9 points and plus or minus 7.8 points for Friday and the Saturday and Sunday samples.
North Carolina
In the Tar Heel State, a Suffolk University poll released Thursday shows Clinton is leading with 45% support, Trump with 43% and Johnson with 5%. The poll is consistent with results from surveys taken after the first presidential debate and before the released of the 2005 "Access Hollywood" tape.
The poll surveyed 500 likely voters between October 10-12 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
And a NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out Thursday shows Clinton is leading Trump by four points in the state.
In the poll, 45% of likely voters in North Carolina said they support Clinton, while 41% support Trump and 9% support Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. Green Party candidate Jill Stein didn't qualify to make the ballot in the state.
The new NBC/WSJ poll of North Carolina was conducted Oct. 10-12 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Utah
A Monmouth University poll of Utah published Thursday showed Trump with the support of 34% of likely voters, Clinton with 28%, independent Evan McMullin with 20% and Johnson with 9%.
A Y2 Analytics poll, published Wednesday by Mormon church-owned Deseret News, found both Clinton and Trump at 26%, with McMullin at 22% and Johnson at 14%.
The Monmouth poll surveyed 403 likely Utah voters between October 10-12 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Ohio
Another NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out Thursday shows Trump is leading Clinton by one point in the state of Ohio.
In the poll, 42% of likely voters in Ohio said they support Trump, while 41% support Clinton, 9% support Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 4% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
The new NBC/WSJ poll of Ohio was conducted Oct. 10-12 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
CNN's Eugene Scott and Daniella Diaz contributed to this report.
By David Wright, CNN
Updated 8:43 AM ET, Fri October 14, 2016
Trump trails Clinton by 11 in new poll
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YOUNGSTOWN, OH - JULY 30: Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and democratic vice presidential nominee U.S. Sen Tim Kaine (D-VA) fist bump during a campaign rally at East High School on July 30, 2016 in Youngstown, Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are continuing their three-day bus tour through Pennsylvania and Ohio. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) 02:36
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Round 1: Trump vs. Clinton
Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speak during the town hall debate at Washington University on October 9, 2016, in St. Louis.
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Trump tax debate gets testy
02:56
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton prepare to debate
01:06
Poll: Clinton's lead narrowing
hillary clinton american legion 00:57
Clinton: One visit doesn't make up year of insults
This combination of file photos shows Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton(L)on June 15, 2016 and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on June 13, 2016. / AFP / dsk (Photo credit should read DSK/AFP/Getty Images) 02:40
Conway deflects question on Trump bigot comment
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Donald Trump: Hillary Clinton is a 'bigot'
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton attends a voter registration event on August 16, 2016 at West Philadelphia High School in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Clinton warned voters not to be complacent and to work to get out the vote and maintain her lead. 02:58
Hillary Clinton's health: An unhealthy obsession?
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See Hillary Clinton laugh off health questions
Former Mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani testifies at a U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Homeland Security hearing at the National September 11 Memorial and Museum on September 8, 2015 in New York City. 01:44
Giuliani pushes Clinton health rumors
LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 19: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) 42nd International Convention at the Las Vegas Convention Center on July 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Clinton continues to campaign for the general election in November while the Republicans hold their national convention. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) 03:16
Clinton faces big challenges in state Obama won twice
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton delivers opening remarks during a meeting with law enforcement officials at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, August 18, 2016 in New York City. 01:07
Clinton responds to Trump calling her a 'bigot'
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See woman react to Trump calling Clinton a 'bigot'
02:01
Poll: Clinton up by seven points in Michigan
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump takes the stage for a campaign event at Fredericksburg Expo Center August 20, 2016, in Fredericksburg, Virginia. 03:40
Did Trump just change his immigration plan?
WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 16: Huma Abedin, aide to former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, arrives at a closed door hearing on Capitol Hill October 16, 2015 in Washington, DC. Abedin is beingÊinterviewed by the House Select Committee on Benghazi. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images) 02:45
Clinton's top aide at center of email controversy
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How healthy is Donald Trump?
01:10
Road to 270: CNN's latest electoral college map
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How Clinton and Trump supporters see the world differently
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, followed by running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, emerges from his plane as he arrives to tour the flood damaged city of Baton Rouge, La., Friday, Aug. 19, 2016. 02:20
Trump softens tone, visits Baton Rouge flood victims
Hillary Clinton attends a voter registration event on August 16, 2016 at West Philadelphia High School in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 02:25
Clinton Foundation to change policy if she wins
Donald Trump in Wisconsin 01:41
Trump: Clinton agenda hurts the poor the most
ERIE, PA - AUGUST 12: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures as he arrives to speak to supporters at a rally at Erie Insurance Arena on August 12, 2016 in Erie, Pennsylvania. Trump continues to campaign for his run for president of the United States. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images) 02:38
Trump's gap with the college-educated white voters
LYNDEN, WA - MAY 07: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gives a speech during a rally at the The Northwest Washington Fair and Event Center on May 7, 2016 in Lynden, Washington. Trump became the Republican presumptive nominee following his landslide win in Indiana on Tuesday. (Photo by Matt Mills McKnight/Getty Images) 02:41
Trump's wild ride to take over the GOP
YOUNGSTOWN, OH - JULY 30: Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and democratic vice presidential nominee U.S. Sen Tim Kaine (D-VA) fist bump during a campaign rally at East High School on July 30, 2016 in Youngstown, Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are continuing their three-day bus tour through Pennsylvania and Ohio. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) 02:36
Clinton and Kaine target Trump's base on bus tour
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The key post-convention battleground states
02:27
Both Clinton and Trump have a favorability problem
00:55
Trump vs. Clinton: Russia's view
Donald Trump addresses supporters and the media following primary elections on June 7, 2016 in Briarcliff Manor, New York. 02:22
Trump vs. Trump
01:30
Donald Trump's big night in 90 seconds
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton acknowledges the crowd as she arrives on stage during the fourth day of the Democratic National Convention at the Wells Fargo Center, July 28, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received the number of votes needed to secure the party's nomination. An estimated 50,000 people are expected in Philadelphia, including hundreds of protesters and members of the media. The four-day Democratic National Convention kicked off July 25. 01:43
Key moments in Hillary Clinton's acceptance speech
Delegates stand as US President Barack Obama speak on the third day of the Democratic National Convention at the Wells Fargo Center, July 27, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received the number of votes needed to secure the party's nomination. An estimated 50,000 people are expected in Philadelphia, including hundreds of protesters and members of the media. The four-day Democratic National Convention kicked off July 25. 01:45
Democratic delegates on the Clinton and Trump messages
01:43
Round 1: Trump vs. Clinton
Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speak during the town hall debate at Washington University on October 9, 2016, in St. Louis.
04:19
Trump trails Clinton by 11 in new poll
Donald Trump rally
00:53
Donald Trump: Clinton 'has to go to jail'
donald trump panama city
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Trump on Clinton emails: This was a disgrace
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01:06
Trump promises Clinton attacks if more video surfaces
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Clinton: Trump's PTSD comments ignorant and harmful
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Clinton: What kind of genius loses a billion dollars?
00:51
Trump: I'm 'smart' for paying no taxes
Donald Trump speaks to a large group of supporters at a Florida airport hanger the day after his first debate with Hillary Clinton on September 27, 2016 in Melbourne, Florida. 00:49
Trump mocks Clinton's stumble
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Trump repeatedly interrupts Clinton
03:46
Trump: Clinton looks down on voters
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Clinton: Trump runs 'deplorable campaign'
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Obama: Anyone can fire off a tweet, criticize
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Obama: Being president is serious business
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Obama: We will educate Trump
Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks with reporters following a National Security Working Session at the New York Historical Society Library on September 9, 2016 in New York City. 00:42
Clinton: Half of Trump supporters 'deplorables'
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Clinton: Trump is temperamentally unfit to be president
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Clinton: Evidence that Trump is a gift for ISIS
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Trump praises Putin during forum
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Clinton on emails: I did what I should have done
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Hillary Clinton's emails with Colin Powell released
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Trump tax debate gets testy
02:56
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton prepare to debate
01:06
Poll: Clinton's lead narrowing
hillary clinton american legion 00:57
Clinton: One visit doesn
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