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News: THE SEARCH FOR ATLANTIS IN CUBA
A Report by Andrew Collins
http://www.andrewcollins.com/page/articles/atlantiscuba.htm
 
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Suger and cream, please

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HereForNow
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HUH?


« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2007, 05:37:46 pm »




I'm off folks. The kids are going to bed in a few hours and I need some sleep.
See y'all tomarrow.
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andre
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2007, 02:52:17 am »

However, I think we short-change ourselves by not talking about the consensus. The point is, if the consensus didn't exist, if it was simply James Hansen (from NASA) stating that global warming existed, his ideas could easily be relegated to the theories of one, perhaps eccentric scientist.  The fact that he isn't the only one saying it, that it is a part of a consensus, speaks volumes.  As you know there are a lot of scientific theories out there, very few become accepted as likely, or even "fact."

But it's not consensus deciding what is a fact. For instance how many Galilei's were required to figure out that the Earth was not the centre of the universe? And how many Alfred Wegeners to find out that continents drifted?

Moreover recall the link to the Independant summary for policy makers, originally posted in this thread, showing that it's not a mere, perhaps eccentric scientist who has sincere doubts about the hypothesis.

« Last Edit: September 18, 2007, 02:54:34 am by andre » Report Spam   Logged

"The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance -- it is the illusion of knowledge." (Daniel Joseph Boorstin)
Jason
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2007, 01:14:15 pm »

It's not consensus deciding what is fact, true, but, of course we aren't talking about majority rule here.  We are talking about the opinions of experts, people in the best position to know and getting their own chance to challenge the material.  Sure, there are a few dissenters among the experts, but the vast majority are still supportive of the idea that human beings are making the world warmer.

I agree that there is some hype involved with it, and that movies like "An Inconvenient Truth" have misrepresented some of the conclusions of the science, however, the few errors found here and there have done nothing to actually challenge the overall conclusion that industry has made the world warmer. 

As for what we can do about it, well, we are only in the first phase of Kyoto.  Once the other phases are negotiated (and once the U.S., one of the main polluters joins), we should see some action on it.
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andre
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2007, 03:28:27 pm »

Sorry I have to disagree again.

Whem I started this quest a zillion years ago, I was nobody, had no clue what was going on. I merely wanted to know the truth about mammoths and wtf had happened 10,000 years ago. So being a little bit older and having a bit of experience and ok status, I did not hesitate and sought to discuss things with the "experts". So I learned a lot about paleomagnetism, geophysics, isotopes and ice cores. But when I asked a opinion about what happened to the Jarkov mammoth, they did not even know what that was.  Shocked "Experts" have no time to watch discovery channel or read scientific publications outside their expertise.

There are no experts, there are merely specialists. Check my earlier post.  Nobody is able to make ends meet. The mammoths disdain any hypothesis based on paleo climate. If you haven't got that solved, you know nothing about climate. Check also my signature.
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"The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance -- it is the illusion of knowledge." (Daniel Joseph Boorstin)
HereForNow
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2007, 03:39:54 pm »

I can relate to that. Most of the time, everyday people like ourselves make wonderous discoveries.
The mainstream groups who drew other conclusions about these discoveries, wound up suppressing or attempting to debunk claims of solid evidence.  Undecided

In the event of total glacial melt down, we will have more to worry about then just rising sea levels.
Methane, Co2, and other green house gases from other events in the past are also trapped in that ice and are being released as the glaciers melt. For all we know, deadly viruses may have been trapped as well.

How we veiw our world today, is going to change very drastically. My suggestion to everyone is;
Enjoy what we have today, because tomarrow it may all disappear beneith the layers of our own ignorance. I for one, have prayed for just 5 more years of life for everything.
Sadly, I see what we have contributed to, and I feel we all could have done something different for the sake of our children.


Perhaps the truth is what we deserve?
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andre
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« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2007, 07:25:41 am »

Perhaps we only deserve the truth if we are prepared to drop the fallacies, the guts feeling and the desire of something to be true (truthiness).

The truth is hard and merciless. Our enemies may be right, who can stand that?
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"The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance -- it is the illusion of knowledge." (Daniel Joseph Boorstin)
HereForNow
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« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2007, 07:59:43 pm »

Perhaps we only deserve the truth if we are prepared to drop the fallacies, the guts feeling and the desire of something to be true (truthiness).

The truth is hard and merciless. Our enemies may be right, who can stand that?

This is the thing. We need to be humble, yet couragious. We almost have to be willing to go out on a limb, and then shake the tree.
   Our enemies are cowards who hide behind lies and suppression.
There again, we're no better unless we take the steps toward the truth and expose it.
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Jason
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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2007, 06:51:03 am »

I actually don't see people we have disagreements with as "enemies."  There is room for more than one point of view.  As for the whole global warming argument, Andre said, "Our enemies may be right, who can stand that?"  To which I answer, who decides what is right, and when?

We do know that (not to belabor the point) the vast majority of scientists believe that human beings are making the world warmer.  Try and disregard the point all you wish, that is the case.  I am sure that there are people on the opposing "side" that have honest disagreements.  But, near as I can tell, the support they have achieved has no roots in science - people simply do not want to be told they are responsible, and, for most, it is a pain in the you know what to clean up your lifestyle.
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andre
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« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2007, 02:46:07 pm »

No enemies? Hmm, The villains,
[url=http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/1782/]criminal offense!
, lock them up.

Remember that I'm looking at that from the other side of the which hunt, while all I wanted to do is solving the problem of the Mammots and in doing so, discover that global warming is not true. That's pretty tragic, it was so much more social to be able to shout: MAMMOTH EXTINCTION SOLVED, GLOBAL WARMING TRUE! But unfortunately it is FALSE So what do you want? the truth or truthiness?

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HereForNow
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« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2007, 03:47:57 pm »

I actually don't see people we have disagreements with as "enemies."  There is room for more than one point of view.  As for the whole global warming argument, Andre said, "Our enemies may be right, who can stand that?"  To which I answer, who decides what is right, and when?

We do know that (not to belabor the point) the vast majority of scientists believe that human beings are making the world warmer.  Try and disregard the point all you wish, that is the case.  I am sure that there are people on the opposing "side" that have honest disagreements.  But, near as I can tell, the support they have achieved has no roots in science - people simply do not want to be told they are responsible, and, for most, it is a pain in the you know what to clean up your lifestyle.

Jason, I know where your coming from and all. Your right people can have a difference of opinion. The people I was personally referring to are the ones that know of coming disaster and leave others to die.
Like Katrina for example; Say that someone was able to know exactly what damage and death toll was going to occur and never said a word. Is this someone you would want as a friend?  Smiley

Say someone was to invent a free-energy device that could supply heat and light to everyone's home and Decided to charge money for something they could produce for free. These are the people I call, "Enemies".......


I need a cup of coffee! mmmm'
Columbian Supreme, lil cream no sugar.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2007, 03:53:54 pm by HereForNow » Report Spam   Logged

Jason
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« Reply #25 on: September 20, 2007, 03:55:13 pm »

Some of those people are villains.  Anyone who puts their own personal gain over the good of everyone else is a bit shabby in my book.  However, I don't believe your mammoth hypothesis disproves the idea of global warming.  I know your belief that it does is sincere, but your evidence is a bit circumstantial at best.  

We certainly have evidence that the world is getting warmer and that CO2 is on the rise.  The best evidence that skeptics seem to raise is that past climate models did not always show a direct correlation between the two (although, in the larger trends, they do).  However, compare a few discrepencies here and there with the very reality that the world is getting warmer and the scales don't quite balance out.
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andre
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« Reply #26 on: September 21, 2007, 03:11:30 am »

Like Katrina for example; Say that someone was able to know exactly what damage and death toll was going to occur and never said a word. Is this someone you would want as a friend?  Smiley

I seem to remember that the government knew in what deplorable state the levees were, unable to withstand much natural forces. I also seem to remember that plans to fortify the levees were fought vigourously in court by the greens because this would damage the nature. And they won.

So who is indeed responsible for the disaster?
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andre
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« Reply #27 on: September 21, 2007, 03:39:10 am »

Some of those people are villains.  Anyone who puts their own personal gain over the good of everyone else is a bit shabby in my book.
This is "groupthink".

Quote
The group gets tighter and tighter, closes ranks, and the biggest threat becomes anyone who disrupts things or disagrees. At this point, according to Janis, the next symptom of groupthink becomes evident: the development of stereotypes of those who donít believe as the group does. Anyone outside of the group or who has other ideas is dehumanized and seen as a threat; labeled in simplistic, demeaning term; and attacked with ad hominum arguments. Instead of reasoned arguments, members caught up groupthink talk in increasing rhetoric and slogans.

So how does science work. Suppose you want to prove a hypothesis what is the best way? Looking for things that are consistent with the idea? or trying to find things that falsify it? If an hypothesis is sound, it will not be possible to disprove it. Therefore, it would be entirely logical to say: "here is my idea, prove me wrong and I pay you....". Therefore what the skeptics do, trying to disprove things is entirely scientifically and ethically sound. If they can't falsify it, you have a sound theory if they can, you're in trouble. And the trouble is that antropogenic global warming as in amplified strong greenhouse effects is thoroughly disproven. But Sandy tells you exactly why you don't know that:

Quote
Another manifestation of this is that opposing ideas are not even allowed to be reported, hence, alternative media is suppressed. In fact, found Janis, some members assume the role of protecting the group from contrary information that might threaten the groupís complacency and everyone else goes out of their way to protect the groupís consensus.

You can find these people here: http://www.realclimate.org

of course killing the popular belief is a disgrace and people who are doing that are logically a threat to the groupthink society. Therefore the call to make sceptisms about climate a criminal offense is logical. But also a very black page in the liberation of logical science from the social biases caused by the group effect.

Sandy again:

Quote
Groupthink becomes a powerful and dangerous force because its control over individuals is self-enforced. Preservation of the group and furthering itís goals becomes the sole focus. The group becomes the ultimate authority on anything and everything. Individual free thinking isnít tolerated.

Clearly, the end result of group think, is poor quality decisions that are based on consensus.

And thatís not the scientific process. Dr. Lawrence Krauss, chairman of the physics department at Case Western Reserve University once told me: ďScience isnít fair or democratic. Instead of majority rule, scientific understanding evolves only as rigorous testing, observations, and measurements build a body of unrefuted evidence.Ē

Whenever youíre tempted to think that just because a whole lot of people believe something, that it must be true, remember the words of Nobel prize winner, Anatole France (1844-1924):

If 50 million people believe a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing.


Jason said:

Quote
However, I don't believe your mammoth hypothesis disproves the idea of global warming.  I know your belief that it does is sincere, but your evidence is a bit circumstantial at best.

The Mammoth should be the poster child of the failure of paleo climatology to comprehend what went on in the Ice Ages. It could not have been there, yet it is. That should be enough. In reality it's only the tip of the ice berg. Lots and lots of other things that don't add up.
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Jade Hellene
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« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2007, 04:31:45 pm »

Hi Andre, welcome to the forum,

"Groupthink"  simply doesn't apply to science. To use the idea in relationship to science would be to imply that no scientists have independent ideas of their own, that they aren't conducting their own research, that they are lazy and are simply following the crowd. 

The global warming hypothesis has been tested many, many times over the years and most research supports it.  In fact, Science Magazine did a check of all the abstracts concerning climate during a ten year span, something like 935 of them  - not one differed with the general idea that human beings are making the world warmer, not one.

I am sure you are sincere in your beliefs, but they aren't accepted by the mainstream and they put you in the minority of scientists.
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Sort through the media disinformation:
http://mediamatters.org/
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