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A new alternative


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19Merlin69
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« on: September 01, 2007, 01:46:53 pm »

  Major New Theory Proposed to Explain Global Warming

This article can be found at: http://www.dailytech.com/Major+New+Theory+Proposed+to+Explain+Global+Warming/article8450.htm





Satellite imagery of El Nino currents in 2006 
(Source: NASA)Carbon-dioxide out; "synchronized chaos" in
"Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt"
--Washington Post headline, November 2, 1922.


If there was any doubt that fear-mongering has long been cherished by the media, the above headline should put the question to bed. But that 80-year old news story also illustrates two of the great problems for the global warming theory -- its inability to explain sudden climate shifts in the Earth's past, and to explain why the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are so unequally affected by warming.

A team of mathematicians have come forth with a startling new theory that solves both these problems. Led by Dr. Anastasios Tsonis, their model says the known cycles of the Earth's oceans -- the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino (Southern Oscillation) and the North Pacific Oscillation -- all tend to try to synchronize with each other. 


The theory is based on a branch of mathematics known as Sychronized Chaos.  The math predicts the degree of coupling to increase over time, causing the solution to "bifurcate," or split. Then, the synchronization vanishes.  The result is a climate shift.

Eventually the cycles begin to sync up again, causing a repeating pattern of warming and cooling,  along with sudden changes in the frequency and strength of El Nino events.

Better yet, their theory has predictive power. The model predicts past shifts in the year 1913 (explaining the strong warming of the 20s and 30s), 1942 (resolving the post-WW2 cooling trend) and 1978 (covering our current warming). The model predicts another shift to occur around the year 2033. Most shocking of all is their prediction for the year 2100 to be slightly cooler than present day, despite the assumption of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels.  Eye-popping indeed.

Is carbon-dioxide really so ineffective at warming? A new study by Belgium's Royal Meteorological Institute seems to think so. Its conclusion is that, while CO2 does have some effect, that "it can never play the decisive role attributed to it" in global warming, and that its effects have been grossly overstated.


More information and research can be found here:  http://merlinsscience.0catch.com/files/Archibald2007.pdf 
AND Here: http://merlinsscience.0catch.com/files/conf05mckitrick.pdf

Lest we cease the search for answers shall we begin making assumptions; the archenemy to understanding.  --  Lord Kelvin
To refuse to investigate alternatives is to hold ego or popularism in higher regard than knowledge, nothing can be learned in that.  --  David Bohm
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Jason
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2007, 09:23:54 pm »

I don't expect this one will catch on as a viable alternative to the global warming theory either. Even if the past explanations of the past are correct, that doesn't make them any better at predicting what will happen in the future.  Plus, from what I read of Dr. Anastasios Tsonis, he falls inot the category of global warming skeptic.  In any event, I am surprosed the write-up on the paper makes such a big deal on the lack of influence of CO2.  From what I read, the paper doesn't mention CO2 at all.
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19Merlin69
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« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2007, 04:22:39 pm »

I don't expect this one will catch on as a viable alternative to the global warming theory either. Even if the past explanations of the past are correct, that doesn't make them any better at predicting what will happen in the future.  Plus, from what I read of Dr. Anastasios Tsonis, he falls inot the category of global warming skeptic.  In any event, I am surprosed the write-up on the paper makes such a big deal on the lack of influence of CO2.  From what I read, the paper doesn't mention CO2 at all.

Go read both links to the reference information.  I don't claim that the theory is correct, but I do believe that there is a good amount of science to be reckoned with in it.  Plus, you cannot argue with the author's evidence of "Media Hysteria", and how it is being used to replace factual information.  Soon, evidence or not, it will be 'unfashionable' to not be on the bandwagon.  Man after my own heart.

Anyway - go read the data, it's interesting nonetheless.
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