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mike.mcauliff@huffingtonpost.com Senate Results 2012: Elizabeth Warren Wins As Early Races Go Democrats' WayPosted: 11/06/2012 9:16 pm EST Updated: 11/06/2012 10:20 pm EST
WASHINGTON -- Democrats began their defense of the U.S. Senate Tuesday night with what looked to be three gifts from the GOP -- in Maine, Indiana and Missouri -- and a marquee win in Massachusetts.
In the Bay State, Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren was declared the winner over GOP incumbent Scott Brown, ending the brief Senate career of a man who had ascended to the upper chamber of Congress in a remarkable 2010 special election win that complicated Democratic health care reform efforts.
Democrats had managed to woo the consumer activist Warren to challenge Brown after President Barack Obama passed over her as his choice to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Warren trailed far behind the likable, pickup-driving Brown early on, but gradually closed the gap, despite a flap over her claims to Native American heritage.
Poll watchers called her race as she was leading by about 5 percentage points with one-quarter of the vote tallied.
The Democrats' first gift came from Maine, where popular Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) had decided to retire, making way for former Independent Gov. Angus King, who stepped into the void and far out-polled both the Democrat and the Republican in the contest. King's win was called early by the networks. Come next January, he is poised to caucus with Senate Democrats.
Indiana followed, with Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly overcoming controversial Republican state Treasurer Richard Mourdock -- another contest that seemed not just improbable, but impossible a year ago.
Once Indiana had been considered a lock for the GOP, but Mourdock beat incumbent Republican Sen. Dick Lugar in the primary. Democrats immediately began highlighting Mourdock's right-wing views, especially his statement that he didn't believe in compromising with Democrats. In a debate last month, Mourdock added ammo to their attack when he declared that pregnancies from **** were something "God intended to happen."
Mourdock plummeted in the polls, and Hoosiers shifted toward Donnelly, a conservative Democrat who opposes abortion and voted against the health care law. Mourdock did slightly better with men than Donnelly, according to exit polls, but Donnelly led among women 52 percent to 43 percent. And he crushed Mourdock among self-described moderates, 63 percent to 30 percent.
Mourdock's **** comments were perhaps so damaging because they echoed those of Rep. Todd Akin, the Missouri Republican who earlier made the wildly erroneous claim that women don't become pregnant from "legitimate ****." Akin also lost convincingly, to Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. But before he opened his mouth, Akin had been expected to cruise to an easy win over the unpopular incumbent.
On election night, Democrats, who had been looking at a potential drubbing a year ago with the need to defend 23 Senate seats, felt their chances in other races as well were strong.
"We're very encouraged by what we see in the 6, 7 and 8 o'clock closings," said Guy Cecil, director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, noting especially the quickly called victory of incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in Florida.
Connecticut was also swiftly called -- for Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy, who was facing former pro-wrestling executive Linda McMahon. Victory for Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio followed soon after.
The Buckeye State had turned into a problem for Republicans when the state's treasurer, Josh Mandel, emerged as an unlikable opponent to the blue-collar liberal Brown. Mandel hurt himself by, among other poor decisions, skipping all of the meetings of the state's Board of Deposit while he was seeking higher office. He also got tagged as a serial campaign liar.
Polls closed at 7 p.m. in Virginia, where the contest between Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen was too close to call. Kaine had led in late surveys.
Democrats had ensured they would put up a fight in the Old Dominion by recruiting Kaine, the former governor, from his post as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
"The quality of candidates that we recruited and the quality of campaigns that we've run are paying off for us," Cecil said Tuesday.
Republicans faced better prospects in trying to pick up Democratic seats in North Dakota, where Sen. Kent Conrad is retiring, and in Nebraska, where Sen. Ben Nelson is bowing out.
They also appeared to be running strong in Nevada, where incumbent Sen. Dean Heller was trying to hold off Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, and in Arizona. The latter had also been considered a safe bet for the GOP, but backlash over GOP immigration policies and a strong Democratic candidate in former Bush-administration Surgeon General Richard Carmona gave Republican Rep. Jeff Flake a tough contest.
Wisconsin appeared to be a dead heat between Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) and former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R), despite Thompson's long history in the state.
Even in North Dakota, Rep. Heidi Heitkamp (D) made a strong run against Rep. Rick Berg (R), who was not very popular in the state and was far underperforming Mitt Romney in the polls. Still, Berg seemed likely to win. Heitkamp, a former gas company executive, ran as a moderate whose energy policies were virtually indistinguishable from those of the Republicans.
Another especially tight race was unfolding in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester seemed to have a strong chance of holding off GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who had vanished from the campaign trail in the late days of the contest. Tester cast himself as an independent-minded moderate, while alleging that Rehberg was a creature of Washington. Reinforcing that charge was a story by The Huffington Post reporting that Rehberg had once told lobbyists that theirs was an honorable profession and that he couldn't legislate without their advice.
This story will be updated as the Senate election results come in.
Michael McAuliff covers Congress and politics for The Huffington Post. Talk to him on Facebook.