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Presidential Election 2012


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Adrienne
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« on: November 03, 2012, 05:31:16 pm »

Early Voting In Florida, Key Parts Of Nevada Has Democrats Ahead In Ballots Cast

The Huffington Post  |  By Dave Jamieson Posted: 11/03/2012 3:41 pm EDT Updated: 11/03/2012 4:25 pm EDT


Democrats have carved out an early-voting lead in Florida ahead of this Tuesday's election, carrying an advantage of 104,000 ballots cast.

Although Republicans in the state are ahead by 84,000 in absentee ballots, the Democrats' lead of 187,000 in early in-person voting gives them their widest margin yet in overall pre-Election Day voting, according to The Miami Herald.

The lead comes despite efforts by Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) and the state's GOP-led Legislature to try to prevent a repeat of Democrats' early-voting advantage in 2008. A law passed by Republicans eliminated early voting on the Sunday before the election, a day on which President Barack Obama pummeled Sen. John McCain four years ago.

The state has cut early-voting days from 14 to eight as well, the Herald notes.

In Nevada's early voting, Democrats are ahead of Republicans in crucial locales. According to Ralston Reports, Democrats hold an early-voting lead of 71,000 in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. Nearly half of registered Democrats there have already voted by mail or in person, compared with one-third of Republicans.

In Washoe County, which includes the city of Reno, Democrats and Republicans are roughly even, with about 40 percent of both parties' rolls having cast votes already.

Both Florida and Nevada are swing states in this election. According to the HuffPost Pollster model, President Obama and Mitt Romney are in a dead heat in Florida, tied at 48.1 percent each as of this writing. In Nevada, Obama holds a lead of almost 4 percent as of this writing.
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What's happening in your district? The Huffington Post wants to know about all the campaign ads, mailers, robocalls, candidate appearances and other interesting campaign news happening by you. Email any tips, videos, audio files or photos to openreporting@huffingtonpost.com.
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Adrienne
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2012, 05:51:44 pm »

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Presidential Polls 2012: Obama's Battleground Advantage Holds


Posted: 11/03/2012 11:38 am EDT Updated: 11/03/2012 1:53 pm EDT


WASHINGTON -- The veritable fire hose of data turned on in the final days of the 2012 campaign leaves little doubt that while the national popular vote remains too close to call, President Barack Obama holds slim but meaningful leads over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the battleground states that will likely decide the presidential election.

With just three days remaining before votes are counted, most of the national tracking polls continue to show a basically deadlocked race, with six new surveys released in the last 24 hours showing roughly the same findings as those from earlier in the week.

2012-11-03-uspolls.png

In nominal terms, most polls now show either a tie or a slim Obama edge, but the differences between Obama and Romney in any one poll are too small to be considered statistically significant.

The HuffPost Pollster tracking model, which uses data at the national and state levels to produce estimates of the combined polling snapshots, continues to show a national deadlock. However, for the first time in two weeks, Obama's percentage of the national popular vote was just slightly higher than Romney's, according to the tracking model (47.4 to 47.2 percent, as of this writing).

But even when all of the national polling data is combined, neither Friday's uptick for Obama nor the razor-thin margin separating the candidates nationwide is statistically significant. In plain English -- as of this writing, the polls collectively tell us that the national popular vote is just too close to call.

The snapshot is different, however, within the battleground states that will likely decide the outcome of the election.

In Ohio, for example, five new surveys released on Friday showed results ranging from a tie to an Obama lead of 6 percentage points. The surveys included new polls from NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College and CNN/ORC International showing Obama leading by 6 and 3 percentage points, respectively, that used live interviewers to call samples of voters over both landline and mobile phones. The 49 to 49 percent tie result came from a Rasmussen Reports automated survey.

The Pollster tracking model, which considers all of the Ohio poll data, takes into account the consistent "house effect" differences among pollsters in producing its estimates. For example, in comparison to the overall averages, the Marist polls have tended to be more favorable to Obama, while the Rasmussen surveys generally favor Romney. When the model combines all of the data, it gives Obama a lead approaching 3 percentage points in Ohio (48.9 to 45.9 percent), as of this writing.

In all, HuffPost Pollster has entered over 120 new statewide polls into our database over the past week, most in the closely contested battlegrounds. This new data has done little to alter the overall polling snapshot, which continues to favor Obama in contested states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa and Ohio by margins of 2 to 4 percentage points. The electoral votes from these four states, combined with those from other states where Obama leads Romney by wider margins, would give the President 277 electoral votes, just over the 270 need to win.

Four more states -- New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia and Florida -- continue to show closer margins, with Obama holding a slight advantage in New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia, while Romney has a slight edge in Florida. If the polling leaders were to carry each state where they currently lead by any margin, Obama would reach 303 electoral votes to 235 for Romney.

2012-11-03-battlegrounds1131.png

Given the torrent of incoming data, the model now reports nearly complete certainty about Obama's narrow leads in the most crucial tipping-point states of Iowa and Ohio, but that statistical confidence assumes that the final polls are collectively accurate and unbiased. When we factor in the historical potential for polling error, the probability of an Obama win falls to roughly 90 percent in Ohio and Iowa. An Obama win in those states is thus still very likely, but a 1-in-10 possibility still exists, given the typical historical pattern, that the polls could be wrong enough for Romney to win.

The polling snapshot in Florida, a state that Romney must carry to win, is far less clear. A new Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research shows Romney leading by 6 percentage points (51 to 45 percent), while a new NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll gives Obama a nominal 2-point edge (49 to 47 percent). Altogether, five surveys released in Florida in the last week have given a slight edge to Obama, including two conducted by Democratic pollsters sponsored by groups supporting Obama, while three have favored Romney and one showed an exact tie.

2012-11-03-florida.png

As of this writing, the Pollster tracking model, which again takes all of this data into account while controlling for any consistent statistical bias shown by individual pollsters, shows a virtual tie in Florida.

As the clock ticks down the election day, the final statewide polling snapshot is nearly complete. The final national polls from prominent news organizations, set to be released in the next 48 hours, will provide the final check on any last-minute trends. Stay tuned.
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Adrienne
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2012, 05:52:15 pm »

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Adrienne
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2012, 05:52:37 pm »

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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2012, 05:53:18 pm »

Obama is ahead because he is honest, has been a great leader, he cares about everyone and he has brought us back from republican disaster. More jobs were created this month, we have the lowest unemployment we have had in 4 years. Home sales are up, consumer confidence as at a 5 year high.  Things are looking up and Americans are much better off now then they were under GWB.

Romney on the other hand has shown he is nothing more than dishonest and two faced, the amount of lies that has been told by Romney during this campaign is unbelievable. He doesn't know how to lead--he only called republican governors affected by the Hurricane--not the Democratic ones--that is unforgivable. But at the same time it is important to know that this is how Romney thinks: US and THEM, and that is NOT how a President is supposed to lead. The President is a President to EVERYONE--red and blue.

Vote for the person who will be President to everyone--not just the republican billionaires.  Obama 2012

Please get out and vote Democrats, let's send Romney a message he won't forget.
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Adrienne
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2012, 05:53:59 pm »

The 99% will rule, not the 1%!
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Adrienne
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2012, 05:54:12 pm »

The GOP will keep obstructing Obama to make sure he is only a two term President.  Smiley
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Adrienne
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2012, 05:54:43 pm »

Remember tomorrow to set your clocks an hour back, and on Tuesday not to set the country 50 years back!
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2012, 05:55:16 pm »

GOTV in Florida (FL), 11/03/12 Dems surge to 3.2 pts

With 3,914,379 votes cast in early voting, with 46.3% likely voters reporting.

Democratic lead
~105,688 votes
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Adrienne
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2012, 05:55:51 pm »

Unlike Bishop RomneyHood, our President cares about everyone...

The people who aren't multimillionaires...

The women who deserve an equal voice (and equal pay)...

The Americans who work hard, all trying to achieve the 'American Dream'.
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2012, 05:58:07 pm »


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2012 Senate Race Polls: Richard Mourdock's Plunge Dampens GOP's Majority Hopes

Posted: 11/02/2012 6:07 pm EDT

Republican Richard Mourdock, candidate for Indiana's U.S. Senate seat, participates in a debate with Democrat Joe Donnelly and Libertarian Andrew Horning in a debate in New Albany, Ind., Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2012.

Two new independent polls of the Indiana Senate race show Richard Mourdock (R) losing significant ground to his opponent, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), in the wake of his statement claiming that pregnancies from **** are "something God intended to happen."

A Howey/DePauw University Battleground poll released Friday morning found Donnelly leading Mourdock 47 percent to 36 percent, up from a 2 point lead in September. Meanwhile, a new automated Rasmussen poll found Donnelly leading Mourdock by 3 points, up from a 5 point deficit just three weeks earlier.

Donnelly now leads Mourdock by 3.5 points in the HuffPost Pollster estimate, which is based on all available public polling, including internal polls from Mourdock's campaign that continue to show him with a narrow lead.

With all partisan polls filtered out of that estimate, Donnelly's lead expands to 5 points. HuffPost Pollster has officially shifted the rating of this race from "tossup" to "leaning Democratic."

If Donnelly goes on to win in Indiana, the Republicans' chances of winning a majority in the Senate are very low, as indicated by HuffPost Pollster Senate Outlook. Assuming that independent former Gov. Angus King of Maine -- who continues to lead in the polls -- caucuses with Democrats as expected, Republicans would need to win eight more competitive races to get to 50 seats, which would amount to a majority if Mitt Romney wins the presidency, with Paul Ryan casting the tie-breaking vote as vice president.

The Senate races in Nebraska, Nevada, Arizona, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Virginia, Montana and Massachusetts present them with their best opportunity to reach that number. However, Democratic candidates currently lead in five of those eight races, according to the most recent HuffPost Pollster estimates.

The GOP's more unlikely prospects lie in Senate races such as those in Connecticut, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Florida, all of which feature Democratic candidates leading by at least 5 points.

However, if the Democrats manage to win all six races currently rated as "tossups" and all of the seats "leaning" their way, they could actually expand their majority by as many as four seats.

Here are the significant developments in other Senate races since Monday.

Elizabeth Warren (D) got a strong result from a new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts, which shows her leading Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) by 7 points, with only 1 percent of voters still undecided. Meanwhile, Republican-leaning Kimball Political Consulting found Brown ahead by 2 points. The two candidates agreed to cancel their final debate, scheduled for Oct. 30, due to damage caused by Hurricane Sandy, and Brown refused to reschedule the debate for Thursday. With no other major public events scheduled between now and Election Day, the focus turns to the two campaigns' highly touted turnout operations, especially in the aftermath of the storm. Warren currently leads Brown by 4.2 points in the HuffPost Pollster estimate and this race is still rated as "leaning Democratic."

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) has pulled nearly even with Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) in the open Wisconsin Senate race, according to recent polls. Baldwin's lead has shrunk to just 1 point in the current HuffPost Pollster estimate, and this race rating has shifted from "leaning Democratic" to "tossup." Of the five polls taken of both the state's presidential and Senate races over the last week, Thompson has outperformed Mitt Romney by an average of exactly 5 points. If Romney even comes within a few points of winning Wisconsin, it significantly boosts Thompson's chances. If Romney wins the state, it's hard to see how Thompson loses.

Polls also show the open Virginia Senate race as having tightened over the past few weeks. Former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) now leads former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) by 1.4 points in the HuffPost Pollster estimate, but his fate now appears to be tied to President Barack Obama's performance, who currently leads Romney by a similarly slim margin in the state.

The Senate race in Montana continues to be one of the closest races in the country. Since September, neither Sen. Jon Tester (D) nor Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) has led by more than a 3 point margin in any publicly released poll. This past week, two independent polls, from Pharos Research Group and Rasmussen, both found Tester leading Rehberg by just 1 point. Tester holds a statistically insignificant 1.9 point lead in the current HuffPost Pollster estimate of the race.

While former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) saw some encouraging polling numbers last week in Nebraska, a new automated We Ask America poll found him trailing state Sen. Deb Fischer (R) by 13 points -- similar to the margins she enjoyed over the summer. Since this race has been so sparsely polled, this result was enough to shift Fischer's advantage up to 10 points in the HuffPost Pollster estimate and keep this race rated as "strong Republican."

HuffPost Pollster rates a race as a "tossup" if the polling margin separating two candidates is less than 3 percentage points in the Pollster estimate and there have been at least five polls in that state in the last three weeks. A race is designated as "leaning" toward one party if a candidate is leading by 3 to 6 percentage points in that estimate. If a candidate is leading by more than 6 percentage points, it is rated as "strong" Democrat or Republican.

If there have been fewer than five polls in the last three weeks in any given race, composite ratings are used from three respected election handicappers: the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.

For more details and polls of all 33 Senate races, visit the HuffPost Pollster's Senate Outlook page.
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Adrienne
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2012, 06:00:11 pm »

I hope the GOP comes crashing down and hard at that. But that is not going to happen as long as people in this country continue to believe that the GOP will be the party to help them. People need to wake up and see the GOP for what it really is. A Christian version of the Taliban. A government controlled by big business. The GOP is not going to help you. You do not make enough money to "belong". You are the 47% that Romney is talking about. You are the 99% who pay higher tax rates then Romney and friends pay. Do you really want to live in a country like Iran? That is where we are headed. Vote out as many GOP members as possible. Take a stand before it's too late to undo the damage they will cause this country. Do not stay home, get out and vote. You know the religious right will. Do you really want them to have total control of your lives? Vote ....................
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Adrienne
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2012, 06:00:48 pm »

Mitt may not like 47% of the population but Congress especially the House hates about 85% of Americans
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Adrienne
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2012, 06:02:00 pm »

Just say no to: Adelson, Kochs brothers, Trump, Wall Street and the 1%! After all, why should they tell the 99% of the country what say and do?

The 1% have destroyed the country as we knew it, let us continue going FORWARD, not back.

Obama 2012, and down ticket because we need a Congress working for the people!
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"In a monarchy, the king is law, in a democracy, the law is king."
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Vernon Guilley
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2012, 07:37:56 pm »

Y'all got to vote for Mitt, he can show his birth certificate!
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