Hurricane Sandy Megastorm: Government Forecasters Say Projected Storm Surge

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

Hurricane Sandy Megastorm: Government Forecasters Say Projected Storm Surge Is A 'Worst Case Scenario' [liVE UPDATES]

AP/The Huffington Post  |  By SETH BORENSTEIN Posted: 10/28/2012 5:36 pm EDT Updated: 10/28/2012 5:41 pm EDT



By SETH BORENSTEIN, The Associated Press

KENSINGTON, Md. (AP) -- The projected storm surge from Hurricane Sandy is a "worst case scenario" with devastating waves and tides predicted for the highly populated New York City metro area, government forecasters said Sunday.

The more they observe it, the more the experts worry about the water – which usually kills and does more damage than winds in hurricanes.

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In this case, seas will be amped up by giant waves and full-moon-powered high tides. That will combine with drenching rains, triggering inland flooding as the hurricane merges with a winter storm system that will worsen it and hold it in place for days.

Louis Uccellini, environmental prediction chief for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told The Associated Press that given Sandy's due east-to-west track into New Jersey, that puts the worst of the storm surge just north in New York City, Long Island and northern New Jersey. "Yes, this is the worst case scenario," he said.

In a measurement of pure kinetic energy, NOAA's hurricane research division on Sunday ranked the surge and wave "destruction potential" for Sandy – just the hurricane, not the hybrid storm it will eventually become – at 5.8 on a 0 to 6 scale. The damage expected from winds will be far less, experts said. Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters says that surge destruction potential number is a record and it's due to the storm's massive size.

"You have a lot of wind acting over a long distance of water for hundreds of miles" and that piles the storm surge up when it finally comes ashore, Masters said. Even though it doesn't pack much power in maximum wind speed, the tremendous size of Sandy – more than 1,000 miles across with tropical storm force winds – adds to the pummelling power when it comes ashore, he said.

The storm surge energy numbers are bigger than the deadly 2005 Hurricane Katrina, but that can be misleading. Katrina's destruction was concentrated in a small area, making it much worse, Masters said. Sandy's storm surge energy is spread over a wider area. Also, Katrina hit a city that is below sea level and had problems with levees.

National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb said Hurricane Sandy's size means some coastal parts of New York and New Jersey may see water rise from 6 to 11 feet from surge and waves. The rest of the coast north of Virginia can expect 4 to 8 feet of surge.

The full moon Monday will add 2 to 3 inches to the storm surge in New York, Masters said.

"If the forecasts hold true in terms of the amount of rainfall and the amount of coastal flooding, that's going to be what drives up the losses and that's what's going to hurt," said Susan Cutter, director of the hazards and vulnerability research institute at the University of South Carolina.

Cutter said she worries about coastal infrastructure, especially the New York subways, which were shutting down Sunday night.

Klaus Jacob, a Columbia University researcher who has advised the city on coastal risks, said, "We have to prepare to the extent we can, but I'm afraid that from a subway point of view, I think it's beyond sheer preparations. I do not think that there's enough emergency measures that will help prevent the subway from flooding."

Knabb said millions of people may be harmed by inland flooding.

A NOAA map of inland and coastal flood watches covers practically the entire Northeast: all of Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut; most of Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts and Vermont, and parts of northeastern Ohio, eastern Virginia, North Carolina, and western New Hampshire.

Along the mid-Atlantic coast, storm surge is already starting to build, Uccellini said. NOAA's Coastal Services Center chief Margaret Davidson said to expect "bodacious impacts" from both surge and inland flooding.

The surge – in which water steadily increases from the ocean_ will be worst in the areas north of where Sandy comes ashore.

New York will have the most intense storm surge if Sandy comes ashore anywhere in New Jersey, Uccellini said. Only if it arrives farther south, such as Delaware, will New York see a slightly, only slightly, smaller storm surge.

In general, areas to the south and west of landfall will get the heaviest of rains. Some areas of Delaware and the Maryland and Virginia peninsula will see a foot of rain over the several days the storm parks in the East, Uccellini said. The rest of the mid-Atlantic region may see closer to 4 to 8 inches, NOAA forecasts.

The good news about inland flooding is that the rivers and ground aren't as saturated as they were last year when Hurricane Irene struck, causing nearly $16 billion in damage, much of it from inland flooding in places like Vermont, Uccellini and Masters said.

The storm, which threatens roughly 50 million in the eastern third of the country, began as three systems. Two of those – an Arctic blast from the north and a normal winter storm front with a low-pressure trough_ have combined. Hurricane Sandy will meld with those once it comes ashore, creating a hybrid storm with some of the nastier characteristics of a hurricane and a nor'easter, experts have said.

___

AP writer Jennifer Peltz in New York contributed to this story.

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

3 Foot Storm Surge Along NJ Coast
wunderground    @ wunderground : Current storm surge along the NJ coast is around 3 feet from Cape May to Sandy Hook.

9:06 PM – Today
IMF To Close Headquarters
breakingstorm    @ breakingstorm : IMF to close headquarters Monday as precaution due to Sandy; emergency operating procedures initiated - @CNBC

9:02 PM – Today
Chris Christie Praises Obama For Hurricane Sandy Preparation

HuffPost's John Celock reports:

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) put aside his campaigning for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney on Sunday to praise President Barack Obama for his responsiveness to the Garden State's needs in preparing for Hurricane Sandy.

During a briefing with emergency personnel, residents and press, Christie thanked Obama for holding a conference call with him and governors of other states expected to be impacted by the storm, the Star-Ledger reports.

“I appreciated the president’s outreach today in making sure that we know he’s watching this and is concerned about the health and welfare and safety of the people of the state of New Jersey,” he said.

Read the full story here.
8:56 PM – Today
Hurricane Could Cause Huge Problems For City's Sewage Plant

In Norwalk, Conn., officials warn that flooding from Hurricane Sandy could trigger the closing of the city's sewage treatment plant.

"It is possible that we might not have a sewage treatment plant," Norwalk Mayor Richard Moccia said at a press briefing on Sunday, as reported by Norwalk Citizen. "We'd ask people not to use water and flush as little as possible."

Many older East Coast cities, including New York and Boston, rely on antiquated combined sewage and wastewater systems that can become overtaxed with extreme rains -- such as those expected with Hurricane Sandy. The result is often discharges of raw sewage into local waterways.
8:55 PM – Today
LOOK: NWS Satellite Image Shows Storm's Path

Here is an infrared satellite image of the storm over North America courtesy of the National Weather Service:

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

 8:47 PM – Today
16,000 PA National Guard Troops On Standby
TheMatthewKeys    @ TheMatthewKeys : Weather Channel: Pennsylvania puts 16,000 National Guard troops on standby.

8:46 PM – Today
Blizzard Warnings Issued
wunderground    @ wunderground : Storm to have a bit of everything. Blizzard Warnings posted for parts of Appalachians beginning Monday. http://t.co/aDSj8PrC

8:45 PM – Today
Mass Transit Suspended In Maryland

The Maryland Transportation Administration announced on Sunday that it would temporarily suspend services due to the storm. It has not decided whether or not to suspend service on Tuesday.
8:42 PM – Today
WATCH LIVE: Storm Coverage

The Weather Channel is streaming their Hurricane Sandy coverage live online. To watch, go here.
8:32 PM – Today
High Winds Reported In NY
breakingstorm    @ breakingstorm : Sustained wind speed already at 34 mph at buoy at entrance to New York harbor - @wunderground http://t.co/tzMfgq8q

8:29 PM – Today
NYC Residents Raid Grocery Stores

Hours before Hurricane Sandy was predicted to hit New York City, stores in the five boroughs were slammed by tidal waves of shoppers scrambling to scoop up any last-minute provisions from the depleted shelves.

Story continued here.
8:21 PM – Today
Volunteers Help Out Ahead Of Storm

Local Red Cross volunteers on Sunday prepared for the storm by providing emergency kits and cleanup material, setting up shelters for people who have to leave their homes. Volunteers come from across the country, from North Carolina, Kansas City, and Arkansas to provide support to potential victims of the storm. To find out how you can help, click here.
8:03 PM – Today
Chase Waiving Some Fees For Customers In NY, NJ, CT

Chase announced in an email that it would waive some fees for customers in areas that are affected by the hurricane. Here's the full message:

    To our valued Chase customers in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut

    We hope you, your families and your customers are safe. Natural disasters are very stressful and we want to help where we can.
    This week, we are expanding our efforts to help you and all of our customers in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as you manage through the storm.

    We are waiving the following Chase fees through Wednesday, October 31st for customers in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Please know that you'll have until the end of business on Thursday to make a deposit or a payment to bring your account current and avoid the fees.

    º Overdraft Protection Transfer, Extended Overdraft, Returned Item and Insufficient Funds Fees for deposit accounts.

    º Late fees on credit cards, business and consumer loans, including mortgages, home-equity, auto and student loans.

    Please visit chase.com frequently and check our branch locator for details on the branches near you.

    Please call us at 1-888-356-0023 or your personal banker if you are unable to access your funds or need help with other services. For example, we will generally waive the early withdrawal fees on CDs to help customers with their cash flow.

    If you have more specific problems, please call your Financial Advisor, Business Banker, Loan Officer or simply come into your nearest open Chase branch. Our branch and telephone bankers are empowered to go the extra mile for customers with storm-related problems or concerns. We will be calling many of our customers in the hardest hit areas to see if there are other ways we can help.

    We hope these efforts can play a small part in easing some of your worries following the storm. We are committed to doing what we can for our customers who have been impacted. If you need help, please call us at 1-888-356-0023, tweet @ChaseSupport or visit any of our open branches.
    Sincerely, Ryan McInerney Chief Executive Officer

    Chase Consumer Banking

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

 8:00 PM – Today
New York City Prepares For Hurricane Sandy

Matt Sledge

Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers had been ordered to evacuate and the city's mass transit system was shut down on Sunday as officials braced for storm surges of up to 11 feet from approaching Hurricane Sandy.

New Yorkers were preparing everywhere as the wind started to whip up on Sunday. Cinemas were removing letters from their marquees, emergency shelters were taking in residents with no other place to go, and one man on Twitter wrote that "If you didn't see Hunger Games, just go to Whole Foods in Union Square, NY. It's pretty much the same thing."

The report continues here.
7:58 PM – Today
Low-Lying Areas Of CT To Be Evacuated
wunderground    @ wunderground : Mandatory evacuations declared for low-lying areas of CT. List upcoming. Check with local officials.

7:57 PM – Today
Romney In GOP Debate: Shut Down Federal Disaster Agency, Send Responsibility To The States

During a CNN debate at the height of the GOP primary, Mitt Romney was asked, in the context of the Joplin disaster and FEMA's cash crunch, whether the agency should be shuttered so that states can individually take over responsibility for disaster response.

"Absolutely," he said. "Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that's the right direction. And if you can go even further, and send it back to the private sector, that's even better. Instead of thinking, in the federal budget, what we should cut, we should ask the opposite question, what should we keep?"

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

 7:56 PM – Today
Con Ed Could Shut Down Power In NYC If Low-Lying Areas Flood

Con Edison said on Sunday that it may shut down some service in NYC if low-lying areas flood. It is already in the process of shutting off steam to some buildings in the most vulnerable areas of Manhattan to prevent a potentially dangerous situation.
7:49 PM – Today
Flood Advisory Issued For Parts Of Chicago
WSJweather    @ WSJweather : Chicago NWS has issued a 'Lakeshore flood advisory" for the southern shore of Lake Michigan until Wednesday. #Sandy is huge.

7:48 PM – Today
The Atlantic On The Article That Predicted the New York Subway Storm Surge Problem

The Atlantic profiles a New York Times article from September that discussed how a big storm could paralyze New York City's subway system. Read their take here. The original article can be found here.
7:45 PM – Today
Reports Of Snowfall In WV
ClimateDesk    @ ClimateDesk : RT @WSJweather: Reports of 3" snowfall already in West Virginia from #Sandy

7:39 PM – Today
NYC Parks Closed
alroker    @ alroker : NYC Parks Department will close all parks, playgrounds and beaches at 5 p.m.

7:37 PM – Today
Climate Change Activists Rally In Times Square Ahead Of Storm

A group of climate change activists braved the calm before the storm on Sunday afternoon to rally in New York City's Times Square.

Leading environmental activist organization 350.org organized the event, "Connect the Dots between Extreme Weather and Climate Change," in less than 48 hours, according to Phil Aroneanu, the group's co-founder and U.S. campaign director.

"We've never really done anything like this before, but climate change hasn't really reared its head in this kind of way before," Aroneanu told The Huffington Post. "Even though you can't attribute every storm to climate change, the average of 5-degree warmer oceans have created so much more vapor for the storm to pick up and dump on NYC and Boston."

As New York's subways, trains and buses prepared to shut down on Sunday night, and hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers geared up to evacuate the city, close to 100 activists, 350.org supporters and passersby held a banner emblazoned with the words "End Climate Silence," clear enough to be legible from Times Square's surrounding skyscrapers.

Lucas Kavner

For more on this report, click here.
7:34 PM – Today
NYT To Suspended Website Paywall For Hurricane Sandy

The New York Times will suspend the paywall on its website in order to help provide readers will information about the hurricane, Poynter reported. The paywall is also removed from NYT apps.

"The plan is to keep it that way until the weather emergency is over,” a spokesperson told Poynter.

The WSJ will also be offering free articles.
7:27 PM – Today
Sandy Causes 37 Foot Waves In Atlantic

The storm has caused 37 foot waves in the Atlantic, according to the NOAA.
7:24 PM – Today
PATCO Service Suspended
GovChristie    @ GovChristie : PATCO will suspend service as of 2:50am when the last train leaves Philly for Lindenwold. PATCO will remain closed until conditions improve.

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

 7:22 PM – Today
PHOTO: Last Metro North Train Out Of Grand Central Departs

Here's a photo of a Metro North train, courtesy the MTA.

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

The caption on the photo reads: "One last customer runs to catch the last train out of Grand Central, the 7:10 p.m. local to Stamford."

Regional train service into and out of the city is now suspended. Subway services is also being wound down, and bus service will stop, according to the Metropolitan Transit Authority, at 9 p.m.
7:19 PM – Today
Hurricane Sandy: How To Help

If the worst predictions are true, Hurricane Sandy could cause as much as $1 billion in damage. According to the National Weather Service, lives are also at risk. Here's how you can help people who may be affected by the storm.
7:16 PM – Today
Some U.S. Companies Delay Earnings Reports Due To Weather
Reuters    @ Reuters : U.S. companies delay earnings reports due to hurricane http://t.co/UUcrUL1R

7:15 PM – Today
All Flights In And Out Of Philadelphia Suspended Monday

Philadelphia International Airport announced on Sunday that all fight operations would be suspended for Monday due to the storm, according to WPVI, the local ABC affiliate. Officials did not immediately say when they planned to resume flights. For more information, visit http://www.phl.org.
7:11 PM – Today
Obama Also Issues Emergency Declaration For DC
markknoller    @ markknoller : Pres Obama issues Emergency Declarations for NY and DC. Authorizes federal disaster prep in advance of Hurricane Sandy.

7:10 PM – Today
National Grid Offers Worst Case Scenario Tips
nationalgridus    @ nationalgridus : In event of an emergency: Take refuge in an interior room or lie on the floor under a table or sturdy object. #Sandy

7:07 PM – Today
What To Expect From The Storm
The WSJ has provided a helpful list of what to expect from the storm, broken down by region. Some things to note: If you live in higher floors in taller building in vulnerable parts of NYC and surrounding areas, you may want to find shelter in lower floors. Be cautious about sleeping near windows. South Jersey is expected to have the most rainfall in the tri-state area, up to a foot. More here.

7:04 PM – Today
485 Miles From NYC

The storm is currently 485 miles SSE from New York City. Tropical Storm conditions are already occurring over coastal North Carolina and Southeast Virginia.

For the latest review of the storm, go here.
7:00 PM – Today
D.C. Closes Public Libraries For Monday

All D.C. public library locations will be closed Monday.

Click here for more.
6:58 PM – Today
D.C. Rail Service Suspended Until Further Notice
breakingstorm    @ breakingstorm : Officials said no decision made about when rail service would be restored in Washington, DC - @capitalweather http://t.co/WbAVkWDe

6:54 PM – Today
'Life-Threatening' Flooding Expected

In an 8pm public advisory, the National Hurricane Center warns of extreme flooding and heavy snows:

    ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR...

    ...WILL BRING COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...

For more information, click here.
6:51 PM – Today
Meteorologist Pleads With Residents Of Low-Lying Areas

In a briefing presented this evening by the National Weather Service's Philadelphia/Mount Holly station, meteorologist Gary Szatkowski pleaded with residents of low-lying areas of New Jersey and Delaware -- likely to be close to the eye of Hurricane Sandy when it makes landfall sometime tomorrow -- to take the storm seriously. Szatkowski even provided his office number and email, should residents have questions.

"If you think the storm is over-hyped and exaggerated, please err on the side of caution," he wrote, imploring residents in his area to think about their loved ones. "You can call me up on Friday … and yell at me all you want."

Options for the storm to miss the area were rapidly dwindling, Szatkowski added. "Confidence on the storm having a major impact on our region continues to increase. The focus of efforts should be on when Sandy hits our region, not if Sandy hits our region."
From a list of bullet points in the very personal briefing:

    • If you are being asked to evacuate a coastal location by state and local officials, please do so.
    • If you are reluctant to evacuate, and you know someone who rode out the ‘62 storm on the barrier islands, ask them if they would do it again.
    • If you are still reluctant, think about your loved ones, think about the emergency responders who will be unable to reach you when you make the panicked phone call to be rescued, think about the rescue/recovery teams who will rescue you if you are injured or recover your remains if you do not survive.
    • Sandy is an extremely dangerous storm. There will be major property damage, injuries are probably unavoidable, but the goal is zero fatalities.
    • If you think the storm is over-hyped and exaggerated, please err on the side of caution. You can call me up on Friday (contact information is at the end of this briefing) and yell at me all you want.
    • I will listen to your concerns and comments, but I will tell you in advance, I will be very happy that you are alive & well, no matter how much you yell at me.
    • Thanks for listening.

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

 6:19 PM – Today
Obama Signs Emergency Declaration For New York

Says the White House:

    The President today declared an emergency exists in the State of New York and ordered federal aid to supplement state and local response efforts due to the emergency conditions resulting from Hurricane Sandy beginning on October 27, 2012, and continuing.

    The President's action authorizes the Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to coordinate all disaster relief efforts which have the purpose of alleviating the hardship and suffering caused by the emergency on the local population, and to provide appropriate assistance for required emergency measures, authorized under Title V of the Stafford Act, to save lives and to protect property and public health and safety, and to lessen or avert the threat of a catastrophe in all counties in the State of New York.

    Specifically, FEMA is authorized to identify, mobilize, and provide at its discretion, equipment and resources necessary to alleviate the impacts of the emergency. Emergency protective measures, limited to direct federal assistance, will be provided at 75 percent federal funding.

    W. Craig Fugate, Administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Department of Homeland Security, named Philip E. Parr as the Federal Coordinating Officer for federal recovery operations in the affected area.

6:17 PM – Today
Tornado Threat Low
accuweather    @ accuweather : Low threat for tornados. Storm surge & high winds is what to watch @ the coast RT @nsfusco: #sandyhangout what about tornados @ NJ shore?

6:16 PM – Today
How Severe Will The Flooding Be In NYC's Subways?

From Daily Intel:

    One 2011 state report suggests that a coastal storm flooding large swathes of the subway system in less than an hour could cost up to $58 billion in economic damages (and lost revenue) and — more disturbingly for the general population — leave New York public transit system out of commission for up to a month.

6:11 PM – Today
Obama Signs NY Emergency Declaration
ethanklapper    @ ethanklapper : Just in: Obama signs New York emergency declaration

6:10 PM – Today
Executive Branch Agencies Across VA Closed For Monday
GovernorVA    @ GovernorVA : Due to the anticipated, significant statewide impact of Hurricane Sandy, all Executive Branch agencies across VA will be closed tomorrow

6:07 PM – Today
Governor Christie Advises NJ Residents To Prepare For Power Outages
breakingstorm    @ breakingstorm : Gov. Christie briefing: New Jersey residents should be prepared for wide spread and prolonged power outages - @WNYC

6:05 PM – Today
Romney Cancels New Hampshire Trip

The Associated Press reports:

    Mitt Romney has canceled plans to campaign in New Hampshire this week because of the storm bearing down on the East Coast.

    It's the second major schedule change for the Republican presidential candidate with the election just nine days away. Romney campaigned in Ohio on Sunday instead of Virginia as planned.

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

 5:20 PM – Today
PHOTO: Connecting The Climate Change Dots In NY
Climate activist group 350.org rallies in NYC before the storm to connect the dots between extreme weather events and climate change:

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

 5:13 PM – Today
New FEMA Twitter For Updates

FEMA has announced a new Twitter account for hurricane updates and safety tips in Spanish: @FEMAespanol. Several FEMA text message and smartphone apps are also available in both English and Spanish: http://www.fema.gov/mobile.

-Lynne Peeples, HuffPost
5:11 PM – Today
Interactive Map Shows River Areas Approaching Flooding
wunderground    @ wunderground : You are going to want to watch these river gauges. Blues and purples mean stream is approaching flood stage. http://t.co/6W1REKgX

5:10 PM – Today
'Most Likely Scenario' Will Lead To Unprecedented Flooding In Long Island Sound
GovMalloyOffice    @ GovMalloyOffice : Most likely scenario has a storm surge in Long Island Sound of 7-10 feet above typical high tide. That would lead to unprecedented flooding

5:08 PM – Today
Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued In The South As Storm Approaches Northeast

In a 5pm public advisory, the National Hurricane Center discontinued the tropical storm watch from Surf City, NC southward, while predicting strong winds as Hurricane Sandy approaches land:

    HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

[Caitlin Cone-Hoskins]

HERE SHE COMES