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Osama Bin Laden Is Dead -- What Comes Next?

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Armour
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« on: May 09, 2011, 12:31:48 am »

AMERICAN WARS

By Robert H. Reid, Cairo

Al-Qaida's attacks in the U.S. on 9-11 plunged America into war – first in Afghanistan where the terror movement was headquartered and later in Iraq, which President George W. Bush described as the "central front in the war on terror." Ironically, however, the death of terror mastermind Osama bin Laden is expected to have little immediate effect on either conflict.

The war in Iraq, which cost more than 4,450 American lives, was winding down long before elite Navy SEALs gunned down bin Laden in his Pakistan hideout. Unless the Iraqi government changes its mind and asks the Americans to stay longer, the last 50,000 U.S. troops will be gone by the end of this year. Even if they stay, the U.S. role has changed from active combat to training and supporting the Iraqi armed force, which still faces diminished threat from al-Qaida and other insurgent groups, some of which are backed by Iran.

Last month, 11 U.S. service members died in Iraq, about half of them from hostile fire. That was the highest monthly toll since November 2009 but still far below figures from the height of the war, when monthly death counts sometimes soared over 100.

In Afghanistan, President Barack Obama had already announced plans to begin withdrawing American forces starting in July, slowly handing over security responsibility to Afghan troops. The U.S. administration has not said how many of about 100,000 American service members will be heading home in the first wave. The White House has insisted that the rate of departures will depend on how effective the Afghans prove to be in fighting the Taliban and its insurgent allies, including al-Qaida.

After more than eight years, however, the war in Afghanistan has become deeply unpopular. The wild card is whether the American public – and its representatives in Congress – will step up demands for a speedy end to the war now that bin Laden is gone.

Mindful of that possibility, U.S. and European officials were quick to declare that the mission in Afghanistan was not over, and that a rapid withdrawal might destabilize the country and enable al-Qaida and other militants to group.

But with nearly two-thirds of the American public already questioning whether the Afghan war is worth fighting, that may prove to be a hard sell in the coming months unless a resurgent al-Qaida is able to mount a major attack against U.S. interests.

"Look, part of the argument against this reduction is that it was reputational, for staying in Afghanistan. `We can't look like America was driven out.' `We can't go away with our tail between our legs,'" Rep. Barney Frank said this week. "Well, we just killed Osama bin Laden, and I think that takes a lot of the pressure away – a lot of the punch away from the argument that `Oh, it will look like we walked away.'"

___

PAKISTAN-U.S. RELATIONS

By Chris Brummitt, Islamabad

The killing of Osama bin Laden dealt another blow to already shaky ties between the United States and Pakistan, propelling one ugly question to the forefront: Was Islamabad, a supposed American ally, protecting the al-Qaida leader?

Even if no answer is ever found, the fallout from the raid is hurting the Obama administration's strategy of securing Pakistani cooperation in the terror fight and in creating stability in Afghanistan so U.S. troops can begin withdrawing this year as planned.

The White House and the Pentagon currently say there is no evidence of collusion between senior Pakistan government or security officials and bin Laden. But they say Islamabad needs to explain how he was able to build a home in an army town a short drive from the capital and live undetected, apparently for several years.

If any turns up, the stakes would rise dramatically: Congress would likely halt aid – something many of its members are already calling for – and Washington would demand action against the officials involved, further hindering its goals in the region.

The Pakistan army is humiliated and facing intense domestic pressure for not knowing about or being unable to stop the unilateral raid by American commandoes deep inside its territory. It has threatened to review cooperation with Washington if it launches any other similar operations against senior al-Qaida or Taliban militants still living on its soil.

Even before the raid, ties between the countries had been plummeting against a backdrop of competing strategic interests in Afghanistan. Washington wants Pakistan to attack Afghan Taliban factions sheltering on its soil, but Islamabad has refused to do, not wishing to antagonize what it expects to be an ally in Afghanistan when the Americans withdraw.

Ugly tussles over the fate of a CIA contractor who shot and killed two Pakistanis and deeply unpopular American drone strikes against militants on the Pakistan side of the Afghan border were also shattering what little trust there was between the two supposed allies.

Some hope that American pressure on Pakistan in the wake of the bin Laden raid could lead to a new resolve in tracking down other al-Qaida leaders, such as Ayman al-Zawahri. Arresting him would certainly go a long way toward allaying concerns in Washington.

If nothing is found directly linking Pakistani officials to bin Laden, then ties will likely carry on along the same volatile trajectory as before. Neither side can afford a rupture in relations, no matter how imperfect they are.

___

AMERICAN POLITICS

By Liz Sidoti, Washington

The nation is a bit more upbeat, and President Barack Obama's poll numbers are a little higher.

It's temporary. The death of the world's most wanted terrorist didn't dramatically change the contours of the political environment as the 2012 presidential race gets under way.

Obama's re-election race will be competitive no matter who Republicans choose to challenge him; America still is an ideologically divided country in which close elections have become the norm.

The public's outlook remains sour. People are smarting over 9 percent unemployment and $4-per-gallon gasoline as well as soaring national debt and trillion-dollar deficits.

And, for those reasons, the sluggish economy – not foreign policy – is all but certain to be the defining issue of the race.

Even so, for now at least, the president is in a clear position of political strength after authorizing and overseeing the covert mission to get the al-Qaida leader responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks.

He looks like a strong, experienced leader dealing with serious issues. It's a contrast to the muddled GOP field that lacks a front-runner and, to a certain extent, has been focused on other matters that look small by comparison, like Obama's birth certificate.

Osama bin Laden's death did change one part of the nation's political dynamic: Obama answered GOP critics who claimed he was not tough enough to take on terrorists, not experienced enough to be commander-in-chief, not decisive enough to lead a country still vulnerable to attacks.

Now Republicans, who for decades have successfully painted Democrats as weak on national security, face a far tougher task in making that case against a Democratic incumbent.

That could change, of course, if America gets hit again. Obama, as president, would be blamed. And he still faces significant questions about an Afghanistan war that he dramatically grew by boosting the number of U.S. forces.

But for now, Obama – the candidate of change four years ago – has an enormous victory in his pocket as he seeks to persuade voters to stick with the status quo just as Republicans start making the case to reject it.

___

THE AMERICAN MOOD

By Amy Westfeldt, New York

From the raucous cries of "U-S-A!" and "We got him!" to a quiet laying of a wreath at ground zero by the president, Americans reeled with a mix of elation, reflection and fear as they struggled to close one stressful chapter and write the first words to the next one.

A cathartic release followed the first tweets and texts that Osama bin Laden had been killed. Thousands crowded outside the White House, in Times Square, at universities and at the Sept. 11 attack site in New York, climbing street signs to sing the national anthem and praise the president.

"We had this 10 years of frustration just building and building, wanting this guy dead," said Lisa Ramaci in New York, "and now he is." From around the country, words like "devil," "snake" and "evil" were used to describe the dead terrorist.

A day or two later, voices became more reflective, concerned that celebrations were too much like tailgate parties and put values of revenge over that of forgiveness. People who lost the most – the 9/11 victims' families – urged restraint.

"To say that I'm happy that he was killed just seems odd, and it goes against my Christian faith," said Deena Burnett Bailey, whose husband died in the crash of a hijacked jetliner into a barren Pennsylvania field.

By week's end, it seemed the country had listened. President Barack Obama had bowed his head and hugged 9/11 relatives at a tree-lined patch of land at the World Trade Center site, in a moment far more contemplative than triumphant.

Parents and teachers struggled to explain the event to children who were too young to know about the terrorist named bin Laden, and the attacks that killed nearly 3,000 people on one single day. Students at the Ivy Preparatory Academy in Atlanta covered their eyes as they watched images of jets flying into the trade center, cried at television broadcasts, as they started to learn about post-bin Laden America.

American Muslims, a community with much at stake, took to the streets in Dearborn, Mich., waving flags and cheering the death. Then they ventured forward with bold ideas for a future after a decade of feeling stigmatized.

"Osama bin Laden is dead," Linda Sarsour, a Palestinian-American, posted on Twitter. "Good, now can I get my identity back?"

In the most familiar ritual of a post-9/11 America, the death of a terrorist brought police dogs into train stations and armed security into airports, and stoked worry that bin Laden's death was not the end – that any attack ultimately brings another.

"We're at the middle of the beginning of the end," David Haas said in the nation's capital, outside the memorial to the Pentagon with his wife and daughter. "We're at war with Islamic terrorism. And we're going to be at war with Islamic terrorists probably for the rest of my life."

___

EDITOR'S NOTE: Sullivan covers counterterrorism for The Associated Press; Quinn is the AP's news director for Afghanistan and Pakistan; Reid is the AP's Mideast editor; Brummitt is the AP's Pakistan bureau chief; Sidoti is the AP's national political reporter; and Westfeldt is the U.S. editor of AP's 9/11 10th-anniversary coverage.
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