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'Birther' Polls: Independents Unaffected, Republicans Remain Divided

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Brendon Webb
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« on: April 28, 2011, 10:03:25 pm »



What the CBS/Times poll does show is twelve point increase among Republicans over the past year (from 32 to 45 percent).

4) Unites Obama Supporters/Divides Detractors

One problem with focusing too closely on self-identified independents is that most "lean" to one of the two main parties and tend to vote reliably for that party. So the small share of independents with doubts about his citizenship may by mostly Republican leaners.

If we set partisanship aside, however, and focus on support or opposition to President Obama, we see a clearer pattern.

The most recent USA Today/Gallup poll included questions about both Obama's birth and about vote intentions for next year. Overall, 31 percent of registered voters say they will definitely vote for Obama, 23 percent say they might consider voting for Obama and 46 percent say they will definitely not for the President.

Tabulating beliefs about Obama's birth by vote intention yields the striking contrast illustrated in the chart below: Obama supporters -- even those who say they "might consider" supporting Obama -- overwhelmingly reject the notion that he was born outside the United States, and only a tiny sliver (between 6 and 7 percent) say Obama was definitely or probably born in another country.
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