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New Poll: Restless Voters Prefer Democrats Again, But Still Hate Incumbents

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Author Topic: New Poll: Restless Voters Prefer Democrats Again, But Still Hate Incumbents  (Read 61 times)
Alexandra Engelkhorne
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« on: May 16, 2010, 04:10:04 am »

New Poll: Restless Voters Prefer Democrats Again, But Still Hate Incumbents

ALAN FRAM | 05/15/10 10:28 AM | AP

WASHINGTON — People want Democrats to control Congress after this fall's elections, a shift from April, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll released Saturday. But the margin is thin and there's a flashing yellow light for incumbents of both parties: Only about one-third want their own lawmakers re-elected.

The tenuous 45 percent to 40 percent preference for a Democratic Congress reverses the finding a month ago on the same question: 44 percent for Republicans and 41 percent for Democrats. The new readout came as the economy continued showing signs of improvement and the tumultuous battle over the health care law that President Barack Obama finally signed in March faded into the background.

"To the extent that Democrats can focus on job creation rather than health care, they tend to do better," said Jack Pitney, a political scientist at California's Claremont McKenna College.

Democrats hold a 254-177 majority over Republicans in the House, with four vacancies, while Democrats control 59 of the Senate's 100 seats, counting support from two independents. Despite those disadvantages, the GOP has gained political momentum in recent months and its leaders hope to win control of at least one chamber of Congress this November.

Compared with the last AP-GfK poll in April, the survey showed Republicans losing some support among married women, a key component of many GOP victories. Democrats picked up ground among young and rural voters.

"I'm a new Democrat," said Harley Smithson, 51, of Baltimore, who said he had recently switched from the GOP. "I want to be with a party that's for something instead of against everything."

Even so, the poll underscores that the political environment remains ominous for Democrats.

Just 35 percent say the country is heading in the right direction, the lowest measured by the AP-GfK survey since a week before Obama took office in January 2009. His approval rating remains at 49 percent, as low as it's been since he become president.

Congressional Democrats win approval from only 37 percent, though congressional Republicans score an even drearier 31 percent. Democrats and Republicans are about evenly trusted to handle the economy, an issue Democrats once dominated and one that is crucial at a time when the country's job situation, though brightening, remains grim.
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Alexandra Engelkhorne
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2010, 04:18:15 am »


Only 36 percent said they want their own member of Congress to win re-election this fall, a noteworthy drop from the 43 percent who said so in April and the lowest AP-GfK poll measurement this year. Much of the restiveness seems to be among Republicans: While Democrats were about equally divided on the question, Republicans expressed a preference for a new face by a 2-to-1 margin.

"I want to send a message to Washington loud and clear that I'm not happy, I'm really unhappy, both with Republicans and Democrats," said Diane Mullens, 54, of Huntsville, Ala. "If that means I have to vote everybody out and make a stand with my one vote, I'll do it."

The poll was conducted more than two weeks after the Gulf of Mexico oil spill began and during the weekend of the abortive car bomb attack on Times Square in New York. The survey detected no significant changes in the public's trust in Obama for his handling of the environment or terrorism.

In recent days, the anti-incumbent wave has already spelled defeat in party primaries for a pair of Washington fixtures: Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, and Rep. Alan Mollohan, D-W.Va. Other veterans such as Rep. David Obey, D-Wis., have announced their retirements, and Sens. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., and Arlen Specter, D-Pa., face primary challenges Tuesday that could add them to the political casualty list.

Among those most eager to turn incumbents out of office are the one in four who called themselves supporters of the conservative tea party movement. Two-thirds say they want a new person representing them in Washington, compared with half of everyone else.

"The Republican Party has more or less left me," said Mike Miller, 40, of Republic, Mo., a tea party backer who wants a new member of Congress. "Everybody's shifted to the left."

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted May 7-11 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media. It involved cell and landline telephone interviews with 1,002 randomly chosen adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

___

Associated Press Polling Director Trevor Tompson and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

On the Net:

Poll site: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/
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Enigcom
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2010, 06:58:29 am »

I once consulted for a number of polling organizations around the nation. I was fairly young then (34) and thought I was somewhat cool. I was between marriages and had a lot of collateral back then with my sports car leading the way. I was Liberal and craved adulation. I was dumb! BUT! I was on my way to waking up and learning what the real world does. I realized that Polls are mostly used by those who are secretly Democrats. They manipulate with skewed questions and totally try to reinforce the BANDWAGON EFFECT. I worked for a prominent CEO who had a polling operation and I officed next to the director of the polling company. I could hear through the wall, everything she said. On many occasions, I heard how the polls taken daily were just radically changed to reflect my bosses political bent. I kept it to myself, but I now know not to really believe in any of that convoluted BS anymore. Democrats are in deep trouble because they LIE to the nation. In fact, they are the worst Liars I have ever seen assembled in a public forum. It sickens me to see anyone reinforce their messages.
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Byron
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2010, 03:35:28 pm »

Quote
I realized that Polls are mostly used by those who are secretly Democrats. They manipulate with skewed questions and totally try to reinforce the BANDWAGON EFFECT. I worked for a prominent CEO who had a polling operation and I officed next to the director of the polling company.

So you don't think that Republicans ever manipulate the polls?

Quote
Democrats are in deep trouble because they LIE to the nation. In fact, they are the worst Liars I have ever seen assembled in a public forum.

Wow, so Bush, Reagan or Nixon never lied to the nation?  Excuse me while I roll around on the floor laughing at that one.

Dude, all the Repugs do is lie!

Nixon led about Watergate, Reagan about Iran-Contra, Bush about WMDs, and just about everything else he opened his mouth about. In fact, if you told the Repugs that they couldn't lie about anything, you wouLdn't hear a peep from them about anything anymore! Cheesy
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Win One for the Lion



Healthcare is a Right, Not a Privilige
Enigcom
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2010, 09:40:12 pm »

Well Byron, as you will remember, I once was one of you. So, I know whereof you extrude. I don't like any of them but I must say, Democrats and Liberals or Progressives are masters of propaganda, informal fallacy and well, telling lies. I know, how to lie, but I don't any more...I am through with the game. You know, it is all a silly game...wish we would stop the silly game. But, well since you are still a kid, go on play all you want. Someday, you will wake up.
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Chastity
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2010, 03:46:26 am »

All politicians lie, but the Republicans are wayyyyy better at it than anyone else!

Remember "death panels?"  Now some of them are even taking credit for the health care bill
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"Man hath no preeminence above a beast: for all is vanity." - Ecclesiastes 3:19-20
Enigcom
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2010, 07:28:06 am »

Typical informal fallacy methodology — attribute your own sickness to your adversary and try to sell it to the public. It won't work. You guys are known now and what you create is a massive hate for politics. Republicans are dumb, but they are not the true liars here, you are.
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Chastity
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2010, 01:13:17 am »

Don't be so modest!  You guys are wayyyy better than lying than we are.  In fact, you are so good at it you don't even know when you are doing it anymore! 
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"Man hath no preeminence above a beast: for all is vanity." - Ecclesiastes 3:19-20
Enigcom
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2010, 10:08:11 am »

Try learning more...

Methods of Leveraging the Human Mind for Political or Academic Power and Control

Primary source: The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy.

Informal fallacy is an error of reasoning or a method of hoodwinking an unknowing audience or group. It is often a method of verbal acrobatics to persuade audiences that through reasoning and argument an issue can be correct, when upon evaluation it is not correct but a lie.  This is a means of hyping an issue and spinning it as a truth. Still, it is a lie.

Genetic fallacy is a means of persuading individuals upon the goodness or badness of an issue by using something unrelated but similar by showing the goodness or badness of the issue. A genetic fallacy is often used with a personal attack and serves to reinforce a lie. It will be used to condemn a prior thesis by condemning the base source as the point where an issue goes wrong. The base source may not have any relationship to the end product.

Argumentum ad populum or argument to the crowd or people is a prime example of the statement that everybody is doing it. It is also a statement that is the appeal to the gallery for support of its contention. Some say this is not unlike the mob appeal. What goes wrong with this argument is when exaggeration of the crowd is hyped beyond its real scope. Mass enthusiasm via cheerleading can be a lie when evidence shows the impetus was created by coercion rather than genuine appeal. Many call this the bandwagon effect.

Argumentum ad misericordiam is a methodology used with heaps of pity and emotional blackmail for an apparent wrong done to persons when in essence the facts do not support a need for such high levels of compassion.  Using emotionalism to pressure an audience for a weak case is often called false witness for high benefit. Many times it is in reality a threat of becoming miserable or worse to force an issue. Some will even threaten suicide or in a laughing manner say something is to die for. It is an effort to position others as mean and wrong for creating miserable conditions for the one who is threatening.  Others may use this method to point up the plight of a constituency to leverage for a change in political behavior…such as asking for tolerance when it already exists.

Fallacy of construction or composition of issues is a means of arguing from the make up of parts that have no relationship to the whole. But, by virtue of known parts the whole should follow.

Fallacy of division is the opposite of the above. It is arguing from the whole and its image to portraying the whole as the part when the part has no overall relationship to the results of the whole.

The fallacy of false cause also called post hoc, ergo propter hoc (after this, therefore because of this). The wrong in this argument is the weight given the causal condition. The quantification and formula may be coincidence and outside sources might cause the coincidence. At times, a third party is hidden and may be the ultimate source of the cause.

The fallacy of secundum quid or arguing from a general condition to a specific outcome or again it is also known as the fallacy of accidental relationships. It is also know as the argument of hasty generalizations where a specific condition is apparent.

Argumentum consensus gentium or the argument of all nations or sources for a point of agreement. This argument is typically utilized by the scientific community when they are presenting a theory about some topic. It is usually an assumption rather than a proven fact though many scientists support the concept. Everyone believes this statement therefore it must be true. Its best utilization is as a point of departure for a later proven fact.

Argumentum ad hominem or refutation of the man and what he/she stands for as a character issue in the arena of ideas.  This fallacy is usually used to defuse the character of an opponent and position them as less desirable than the attacker. This method is used to poison the well of an opponent with information that is usually fallacious. If he has been wrong in the past, he is sure to be wrong now. Positioning of dirty laundry in the arena of ideas. When attacked by the ad hominem methodology, many come back with the old What about your stance or tu quoquo. 
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Chastity
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2010, 02:01:57 am »

So you admit your Republicans friends are lying bastards and everything you say is in support of their pro-business, anti-people agenda.  Now we're getting someplace!   Smiley
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"Man hath no preeminence above a beast: for all is vanity." - Ecclesiastes 3:19-20
Enigcom
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2010, 10:16:40 am »

Yep, voters prefer Democrats in Hawaii don't they. HAAAAAAAAA, Ha!
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