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the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
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the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
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Topic: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009 (Read 2797 times)
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Major Weatherly
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Posts: 4848
Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #15
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:26:48 pm »
Anstad images
The only image from Anstad is of the midpoint dissipation stage of the spiral.
Image15
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Major Weatherly
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Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #16
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:27:17 pm »
The following is a Google Earth view of the background Storsteinnes mountains as they would have appeared in the early morning of 9 Dec, 2009.
Image16
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Major Weatherly
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Posts: 4848
Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #17
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:28:31 pm »
The following is an overlay of Image15 and 16, scaled to the background mountains to show that the observer location has been identified in GE.
Image17
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Major Weatherly
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Posts: 4848
Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #18
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:29:22 pm »
Location: Markenes
The only image from Markenes is of the midpoint stage of the spiral event.
Image18
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Major Weatherly
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Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #19
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:30:15 pm »
The following is a Google Earth view of the background Markenes mountains as they would have appeared in the early morning of 9 Dec, 2009.
Image19
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Major Weatherly
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Posts: 4848
Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #20
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:30:41 pm »
The following is an overlay of Image18 and 19, scaled to the background mountains to show that the observer location has been identified in GE.
Image20
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Major Weatherly
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Posts: 4848
Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #21
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:31:09 pm »
Location: Puoltsa
The only image from Puoltsa is of the midpoint stage of the spiral event.
Image21
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Major Weatherly
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Posts: 4848
Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #22
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:32:08 pm »
The Puoltsa image by itself is lacking an identifiable background that could be used to establish a definitive Google Earth match. However, the observer report states
"The photo was taken by one Patrik Ohman, on his way to work in Kiruna."
Examining a map, we find that there is only one main road leading to Kiruna. This road goes almost due SE for a short distance from Puoltsa before turning northward to Kiruna, therefore the view of the spiral event would be in an easterly direction as evidenced by the photo.
Image22
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Major Weatherly
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Posts: 4848
Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #23
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:32:48 pm »
Even with the lack of a suitable background to place the photo location exactly, the short stretch of road, compared to the much greater distance to the event itself, will not introduce any significant error. Even so, the Puoltsa photo will only be used to confirm the final event location, and not be used in the initial triangulation.
Identification of Event Location
Using the above observation points, it becomes straightforward to quite accurately plot and locate the vicinity in which the events took place.
Firstly, lets take an overview of these locations as they appear on the map.
Image23
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Major Weatherly
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Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #24
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:33:27 pm »
Next, bearings are taken from each observer location based on the above publically available photos and observe where these bearings intersect on the map.
Image24
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Major Weatherly
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Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #25
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:34:05 pm »
Now the estimated locations are as far as I can ascertain, relatively accurate but there is an additional test that can be applied to these locations to raise confidence in their accuracy.
All of these locations fall EXACTLY on a "great circle" path ... a "great circle" is the shortest location between 2 points on a sphere.
In the following image, it can be readily seen that these 5 estimated locations do indeed map perfectly onto a great circle segment.
Image25
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Major Weatherly
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Posts: 4848
Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #26
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:35:13 pm »
And if this great circle segment is extended, we have yet another confirmation of the validity of these locations as the extended great circle trajectory that the missile would presumably have followed to minimize fuel requirements, intersects perfectly with the Russian missile target location downrange at the Kamchatka Penninsula.
Image26
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Major Weatherly
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Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #27
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:35:44 pm »
We are now in a position to make an educated guestimate for the initial launch area of the Bulava missile.
Image27
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Major Weatherly
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Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #28
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:38:32 pm »
Analysis
We can now attempt to make some estimates regarding the physical characteristics of the spiral event and in this instance will focus on the clearly identified components B through F as indicated in the following image.
We are especially interested in obtaining distance, altitude and size information at each of these 5 unique points.
B = Point at which exhaust trail ends and blue spiral begins
C = Initial spiral location
D = Secondary spiral location
E = Commencement of spiral dissipation
F = Final stage of dissipation
The initial analysis will begin with an attempt to determine approximate altitudes associated with each of the points. To do this, we need to obtain a reference angle that can be scaled to each of the points. Thankfully such a reference angle is easily obtained by using the westernmost summit of the Kvanangstinder mountains identified at point A in the following image.
Using Google Earth, we obtain an elevation of 718 metres and a distance of 13,800 kms from the Skjervoy observer to this summit. Some simple trigonometry yields an observation angle of 2.96 degrees - this will become our reference elevation angle that we can subsequently scale to obtain elevation angles for points B through F.
Image28
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Major Weatherly
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Re: the Norway Spiral event of 9 December, 2009
«
Reply #29
on:
February 08, 2010, 10:39:27 pm »
Using the reference angle for point A of 2.96 degrees, we obtain the following elevation angles:
B = 3.45 degrees
C = 8.88 degrees
D = 9.86 degrees
E = 12.82 degrees
F = 13.32 degrees
Using these elevation angles and the distances from Skjervoy to the spiral event locations in the White Sea area, we can calculate an equivalent altitude for each point. However, it has to be kept in mind that these altitudes do NOT take into account the curvature of the Earth, which considering the distance between the observers and the White Sea locations derived earlier, will become significant. Because the amount of curvature is considerable in this case, we need to not only determine the altitude of each point above the Skjervoy horizon as seen by the observer, we also need to adjust/increase this altitude by taking into account the curvature of the Earth and the altitude below the observers local horizon.
Image29
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