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Past Events => Campaign 2008 => Topic started by: Melissa MacQuarrie on January 03, 2008, 08:39:16 pm



Title: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Melissa MacQuarrie on January 03, 2008, 08:39:16 pm
Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, CNN projects

Story Highlights
NEW: Huckabee moves ahead of Romney

Tight race between Clinton, Edwards, Obama

Huckabee strikes populist tone in last pitch to Iowa voters

Thompson downplays reports that he will drop out if places lower than third

(http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/POLITICS/01/03/iowa.caucuses/t1home.caucus.thurs.31.ap.jpg)   
DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- Barack Obama will win the Iowa Democratic caucus, CNN projects, based on early results.

 
Iowa residents register for the caucus at Merrill Middle School in Des Moines.

 1 of 3 more photos »  Mike Huckabee will be the Republican winner in Iowa, CNN projects.

With 76 percent of precincts reporting, Obama had the support of 36 percent of voters, compared to 31 percent for Edwards and 30 percent for Clinton.

With 41 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Huckabee had the support of 31 percent of voters, compared to 23 percent for Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson had 13 percent and John McCain had 12.

Rudy Giuliani, who has turned the focus of his campaign to the February 5 "Super Tuesday" primaries, trailed behind with 11 percent.

Huckabee's victory can be attributed to his overwhelming support among evangelical voters and women, according to CNN analysis of entrance polls.

Unlike the more complicated Democratic caucuses, the GOP results are tabulated by a single straw poll.

Polls taken as Iowans entered the first-in-the-nation caucuses show a tight race for both parties.

With such a close race on both sides, voter turnout is key.

Caucus-goer Kathy Barger, inside a Democratic caucus site in Walnut, Iowa, said the room she is in is packed to the brim with a line out the door.


'CNN Special Coverage'
Get the fastest results and latest developments with special coverage of the Iowa caucuses.
8 p.m. ET

see full schedule »
"I don't know how they are going to be able to fit everybody in the room, much less count the votes," she said. "There are bodies in every available space in the room."

The White House hopefuls were campaigning down to the wire in Iowa today, determined to reach as many people as possible before the 1,781 caucuses that started at 7 p.m.

Every supporter is critical in this contest, which historically produces very low turnout. The Iowa Democratic Party said 124,000 people participated in the 2004 caucuses, while the Republican Party of Iowa estimated that 87,000 people took part in the 2000 caucuses. (President Bush ran unchallenged for a second term in 2004.) See your pictures of the candidates in Iowa »

Iowa Democrats, unlike Republicans, use a more complicated system to determine a candidate's viability. Republican caucus-goers are asked for their support for a candidate only one time during the event. Democrats are asked twice: an initial question of support, and a second if their first choice candidate does not reach a 15 percent threshold to achieve viability.

Don't Miss
I-Report: Calling all Iowans!
Poll: Ties in Iowa but many undecided
Iowa caucuses 101: Mastery of the rules key to victory
Election Center 2008
The candidates might disagree on matters of policy, but in the closing week of the Iowa campaign they are working from the same script on political strategy. Some candidates rode in buses, while others took planes to cities and towns across this state in 11th-hour drives to give a final boost of adrenalin to their candidacies.  See the challenges facing each candidate »

Huckabee has been vastly outspent by Romney, who poured millions of dollars into a sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation. Nevertheless, Huckabee told supporters in Burlington during a last-minute rally that they could send "an important message" Thursday night.

"With the eyes of the world on Iowa, imagine what it's going to be like when they tune into places like Burlington, Waterloo, Des Moines, Dubuque, Sioux City, and they find out that caucus-goers here in Iowa can't be bought, that they can't even be rented, that they'll make up their own minds and they'll make it up for what they stand for," he said.

For most of 2007, Huckabee languished in the single digits in the polls and had very little success raising money. But his momentum really picked up in the final six weeks of the year when social conservatives -- an important voting bloc in Iowa -- began to move his way.

Meanwhile, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California will likely need strong showings in Iowa to keep their campaigns going, while Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is likely to ride his surge of popularity through February 5 -- "Super Tuesday," when 24 states hold their primaries -- no matter where he places in the early contests.

Speaking to CNN Thursday, Thompson brushed off speculation that he would drop out of the race if he didn't finish better than third in the caucuses.  Watch Thompson say personal ambition is bad »

On the Democratic side, Clinton, a New York senator, and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, are battling Obama, a senator from Illinois, for their party's nomination in a contest that has come down to two main themes: change and experience.

Clinton is working to convince Iowa caucus-goers she has the experience to enact change, while Edwards and Obama preach that she is too much of a Washington insider to bring change to the nation's capital.

If Obama wins Thursday night, Clinton would lose the sense of inevitability she has as the national front-runner. New Hampshire polls showing Clinton tied with Obama could grow more troublesome.

But if Clinton loses to Edwards in Iowa, it could produce an Edwards-Obama showdown to be the "non-Clinton" candidate.

Obama, whose campaign was organizing babysitters for potential caucus-goers, said he was expecting a high turnout.

"We've seen these enormous crowds as we travel across the state in this last week, and the weather's been brutal, so for these folks to be coming out just to hear a candidate at the last minute, it's doubtful they're not going to go to caucus," he said Thursday.

Edwards -- who placed second in the 2004 caucuses -- swore off sleep to hold a 36-hour marathon.  Watch Edwards call for an investigation of oil prices »

Democratic hopeful Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico said he was feeling good in the final hours.

"You know, I think a lot of the undecideds are breaking my way. Iowans make up their minds at the last minute, maybe 30 percent of them in the last three to four days, and I'm seeing good movement," he said.  Watch Richardson call for a 50 mpg fuel standard »

The second tier of Democratic candidates -- Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, and Richardson -- will all need strong showings in Iowa or risk a fatal blow to their campaigns. E-mail to a friend

CNN's Mark Preston, Peter Hamby, Dana Bash and Candy Crowley contributed to this report.

All About Hillary Clinton • Barack Obama • Mike Huckabee • Mitt Romney • Iowa


Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, CNN projectsStory Highlights
NEW: Huckabee moves ahead of Romney

Tight race between Clinton, Edwards, Obama

Huckabee strikes populist tone in last pitch to Iowa voters

Thompson downplays reports that he will drop out if places lower than third

Next Article in Politics »


 Read  VIDEO  PHOTOS INTERACTIVE EXPLAINER
     
DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- Barack Obama will win the Iowa Democratic caucus, CNN projects, based on early results.

 
Iowa residents register for the caucus at Merrill Middle School in Des Moines.

 1 of 3 more photos »  Mike Huckabee will be the Republican winner in Iowa, CNN projects.

With 76 percent of precincts reporting, Obama had the support of 36 percent of voters, compared to 31 percent for Edwards and 30 percent for Clinton.

With 41 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Huckabee had the support of 31 percent of voters, compared to 23 percent for Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson had 13 percent and John McCain had 12.

Rudy Giuliani, who has turned the focus of his campaign to the February 5 "Super Tuesday" primaries, trailed behind with 11 percent.

Huckabee's victory can be attributed to his overwhelming support among evangelical voters and women, according to CNN analysis of entrance polls.

Unlike the more complicated Democratic caucuses, the GOP results are tabulated by a single straw poll.

Polls taken as Iowans entered the first-in-the-nation caucuses show a tight race for both parties.

With such a close race on both sides, voter turnout is key.

Caucus-goer Kathy Barger, inside a Democratic caucus site in Walnut, Iowa, said the room she is in is packed to the brim with a line out the door.


'CNN Special Coverage'
Get the fastest results and latest developments with special coverage of the Iowa caucuses.
8 p.m. ET

see full schedule »
"I don't know how they are going to be able to fit everybody in the room, much less count the votes," she said. "There are bodies in every available space in the room."

The White House hopefuls were campaigning down to the wire in Iowa today, determined to reach as many people as possible before the 1,781 caucuses that started at 7 p.m.

Every supporter is critical in this contest, which historically produces very low turnout. The Iowa Democratic Party said 124,000 people participated in the 2004 caucuses, while the Republican Party of Iowa estimated that 87,000 people took part in the 2000 caucuses. (President Bush ran unchallenged for a second term in 2004.) See your pictures of the candidates in Iowa »

Iowa Democrats, unlike Republicans, use a more complicated system to determine a candidate's viability. Republican caucus-goers are asked for their support for a candidate only one time during the event. Democrats are asked twice: an initial question of support, and a second if their first choice candidate does not reach a 15 percent threshold to achieve viability.

Don't Miss
I-Report: Calling all Iowans!
Poll: Ties in Iowa but many undecided
Iowa caucuses 101: Mastery of the rules key to victory
Election Center 2008
The candidates might disagree on matters of policy, but in the closing week of the Iowa campaign they are working from the same script on political strategy. Some candidates rode in buses, while others took planes to cities and towns across this state in 11th-hour drives to give a final boost of adrenalin to their candidacies.  See the challenges facing each candidate »

Huckabee has been vastly outspent by Romney, who poured millions of dollars into a sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation. Nevertheless, Huckabee told supporters in Burlington during a last-minute rally that they could send "an important message" Thursday night.

"With the eyes of the world on Iowa, imagine what it's going to be like when they tune into places like Burlington, Waterloo, Des Moines, Dubuque, Sioux City, and they find out that caucus-goers here in Iowa can't be bought, that they can't even be rented, that they'll make up their own minds and they'll make it up for what they stand for," he said.

For most of 2007, Huckabee languished in the single digits in the polls and had very little success raising money. But his momentum really picked up in the final six weeks of the year when social conservatives -- an important voting bloc in Iowa -- began to move his way.

Meanwhile, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California will likely need strong showings in Iowa to keep their campaigns going, while Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is likely to ride his surge of popularity through February 5 -- "Super Tuesday," when 24 states hold their primaries -- no matter where he places in the early contests.

Speaking to CNN Thursday, Thompson brushed off speculation that he would drop out of the race if he didn't finish better than third in the caucuses.  Watch Thompson say personal ambition is bad »

On the Democratic side, Clinton, a New York senator, and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, are battling Obama, a senator from Illinois, for their party's nomination in a contest that has come down to two main themes: change and experience.

Clinton is working to convince Iowa caucus-goers she has the experience to enact change, while Edwards and Obama preach that she is too much of a Washington insider to bring change to the nation's capital.

If Obama wins Thursday night, Clinton would lose the sense of inevitability she has as the national front-runner. New Hampshire polls showing Clinton tied with Obama could grow more troublesome.

But if Clinton loses to Edwards in Iowa, it could produce an Edwards-Obama showdown to be the "non-Clinton" candidate.

Obama, whose campaign was organizing babysitters for potential caucus-goers, said he was expecting a high turnout.

"We've seen these enormous crowds as we travel across the state in this last week, and the weather's been brutal, so for these folks to be coming out just to hear a candidate at the last minute, it's doubtful they're not going to go to caucus," he said Thursday.

Edwards -- who placed second in the 2004 caucuses -- swore off sleep to hold a 36-hour marathon.  Watch Edwards call for an investigation of oil prices »

Democratic hopeful Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico said he was feeling good in the final hours.


"You know, I think a lot of the undecideds are breaking my way. Iowans make up their minds at the last minute, maybe 30 percent of them in the last three to four days, and I'm seeing good movement," he said.  Watch Richardson call for a 50 mpg fuel standard »

The second tier of Democratic candidates -- Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, and Richardson -- will all need strong showings in Iowa or risk a fatal blow to their campaigns. E-mail to a friend

CNN's Mark Preston, Peter Hamby, Dana Bash and Candy Crowley contributed to this report.

All About Hillary Clinton • Barack Obama • Mike Huckabee • Mitt Romney • Iowa

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/03/iowa.caucuses/index.html


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Melissa MacQuarrie on January 03, 2008, 08:43:45 pm
Iowa caucuses 101: Arcane rules have huge impact on outcome

Story Highlights
Iowa caucuses start at 7 p.m. CT Thursday night

Candidates have to show up at caucus sites to vote

Candidates must have 15 percent of the voters to be "viable"

(http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/POLITICS/01/03/iowa.caucuses.101/art.iowa.map.jpg)     

(CNN) -- The arcane rules governing Thursday's Iowa Democratic caucuses will test even the most organized campaign, but mastery of the process could launch a candidate on a path to the White House.

Most Americans are familiar with how elections work -- secret ballots, an 18-year-old age requirement, all-day voting.

But that's not how the Iowa Democratic caucuses on Thursday will work.

When the Democratic caucuses begin at 7 p.m. CT sharp in school gymnasiums, libraries, churches, farm houses and other locations in the 1,781 precincts across the Hawkeye state, step one will be to stand up and be counted.

"What you'll do is get up out of your seat and you'll go walk to the corner or space by the wall designated for the candidate of your choice," Chelsea Waliser, an organizer for Sen. Barack Obama, told potential caucus-goers during a recent Obama rehearsal caucus.  Interactive: A step-by-step look at how the caucuses work »

After this first step, party officials will determine if a candidate meets the 15 percent "threshold" requirement.

Supporters of candidates making up less than 15 percent of the vote in a particular precinct will have the option of making their vote count by voting in the second tally for a "viable" candidate -- one who got at least 15 percent of the vote on the first tally.


'CNN Special Coverage'
The candidates have spoken, now it's the people's turn! Get the fastest results and latest developments with special coverage of the Iowa caucuses.
8 p.m. ET

see full schedule »
It is particularly interesting to watch what happens between the first and second tallies at the Iowa Democratic caucuses, as viable candidate camps vie for the votes of the unviable. It's one of the few times in American politics where voters directly interact with each other.  Interactive: Learn what 'caucus' and other political jargon mean »

During the "persuasion" time in between tallies, the precinct captain for the viable candidates sends a person over to each group that failed to meet the threshold to convince them to support their candidate. Once everyone has decided where to vote, a second tally is taken, and the results are then sent to Democratic state party headquarters -- not electronically but via ordinary mail.

The Iowa Democratic Party keeps the total vote tally a secret and only releases the percentage of delegates won by each candidate, so it all comes down to how many delegates each precinct has, not the popular vote.  Watch how the delegates will calculated »

By comparison, the rules governing the 1,781 Republican caucuses, which are held on the same night as the Democratic caucuses, are pretty simple. The Republican caucuses will use a secret ballot, and, since there is no viability threshold, each vote is simply tallied and the number of votes each candidate gets is reported to party headquarters.

Don't Miss
Months of campaigning comes down to final hours
Iowans: Bring your cameras to the caucuses
Poll: Both parties' races tied in Iowa
ElectionCenter 2008: Iowa
The ability of a candidate's supporters to use the persuasion period to win over second-choice voters could be a key factor deciding who comes out on top Thursday night.

"You hit that floor and work it and try to get them. It's like a fun game," Clinton supporter Ed Winfry of Sioux City, Iowa, said last month.

Because the rules are so complicated, organization is key. Each campaign needs to get its supporters to the caucus locations by 7:00 p.m. sharp. If they are late, they will not be allowed to vote.

And Iowa's unpredictable winter weather could be a factor and dissuade a candidate's supporters from traveling to the caucus sites.

Democratic caucus rules also make polling very difficult. Unlike a regular election, when a voter can immediately leave the polling place after he or she casts her ballot, a caucus-goer may have to spend hours caucusing before his or her vote counts. Plus, caucus-goers without a viable group may end up switching their support to a candidate who had been trailing in standard polls.

The latest CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Tuesday shows a tight race, with 33 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers backing Clinton and 31 percent supporting Obama. But taking into account the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points in the Democratic race, the race is virtually tied.


Former Sen. John Edwards is in third place in the poll at 22 percent.

But the final results could diverge greatly from the polling numbers because it is more likely that a person who tells a pollster that he or she is going to attend a caucus may not do so.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/03/iowa.caucuses.101/index.html


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Melissa MacQuarrie on January 03, 2008, 08:45:45 pm
How does CNN make primary projections?

Story Highlights
CNN receives data from The Associated Press, Edison Media Research

Process of projecting races begins by creating a sample of precincts

Next Article in Politics »



     
(CNN) -- To project primaries and caucuses, CNN and its election experts use scientific statistical procedures to make estimates of the final vote count in each race. CNN will broadcast a projected winner only after an extensive review of data from a number of sources.

CNN editorial policy strictly prohibits reporting winners or characterizing the outcome of a statewide contest in any state before all the polls are scheduled to close in every precinct in that state.

CNN will receive information from the following sources:

The Associated Press: The Associated Press will provide vote totals for each race. The AP will be gathering numbers via stringers based in each county or other jurisdiction where votes are tabulated.

Edison Media Research: To assist CNN in collecting and evaluating this information, CNN, the other television networks and the Associated Press have employed Edison Media Research (EMR). In previous primaries, this firm has assisted CNN in projecting winners in state and national races. EMR will conduct exit polls, which ask voters their opinion on a variety of relevant issues, determine how they voted, and ask a number of demographic questions to allow analysis of voting patterns by group.

Using exit poll results, scientifically selected representative precincts, vote results from the AP, and a number of sophisticated analysis techniques, EMR also recommends projections of a winner for each race it covers.

Collecting data

The process of projecting races begins by creating a sample of precincts. The precincts are selected by random chance, like a lottery, and every precinct in the state has an equal chance to be in the sample. They are not bellwether precincts or "key" precincts. Each one does not mirror the vote in a state but the sample collectively does.

Don't Miss
In Depth: Election Center '08
The first indication of the vote comes from the exit polls conducted by EMR. On the day of the primary, EMR interviewers stand outside of precincts in a given state. They count the people coming out after they have voted and are instructed to interview every third person or every fifth person, for example, throughout the voting day. The rate of selection depends on the number of voters expected at the polling place that day. They do this from the time the polling place opens until shortly before it closes.

The interviewers give each selected voter a questionnaire, which takes only a minute or two to complete. It asks about issues that are important, and background characteristics of the voter, and it also asks for whom they voted in the most important races. During the day, the interviewer phones the information from the questionnaires to a computer center.

Next, vote totals come in from many of the same sample precincts as the exit polls after the voting has finished in those precincts. These are actual votes that are counted after the polls have closed. Primary officials post the results so anyone at the precinct can know them.

The third set of vote returns come from the vote tallies done by local officials. The local figures become more complete as more precincts report vote returns. The county or township vote is put into statistical models, and EMR makes estimates and projections using those models. In addition, CNN will be monitoring the Web sites of the Secretaries of State offices to help analyze the outcome of early voting and absentee voting.

Projections

The projections for CNN will be made from the CNN Election Analysis Center at the Time Warner Center. An independent team of political analysts and statistical experts will analyze the data that will lead to the final decisions on projections.

CNN will decide when and how to make a projection for a race depending on how close the race is. In races that do not appear to be very close, projections may be made at poll closing time based entirely on exit poll results, which are the only information available when the polls close about how people voted. The races projected from exit polls alone are races with comfortable margins between the top two candidates. Projections from exit polls also take into account the consistency between exit poll results and pre-primary polls. In the case of close races, CNN will wait for actual votes to be tabulated and reported. EMR may make projection recommendations to its clients, but CNN will make all final calls for broadcast.

Shortly after poll closing time, CNN may make projections using models that combine exit polls and actual votes. This happens in closer races. For extremely close races, CNN will rely on actual votes collected at the local level. These are the races that cannot be projected when the polls close from exit polls or even from actual votes collected at the sample precincts mentioned earlier. The projection for these races will be based on a statistical model that uses the actual votes. If it is too close for this model to provide a reliable projection, CNN will wait for primary officials to tally all or almost all the entire vote.

What a projection call means

CNN analysts will make all projections for CNN broadcasts. When CNN's analysts project a winner in a race, whether it is based upon data from EMR or from the CNN computations, it means that when all the votes are counted, CNN projects that the candidate will win the race. A projection is as close to statistical certainty as possible, but that does not mean that a mistake cannot happen; rather, it means that every precaution has been taken to see that a mistake is not made. CNN will not "declare" someone a winner because that declaration is up to primary officials. CNN will make projections based on our best estimate of how CNN expects a primary to turn out.

When a lot of vote returns have been tallied, a race may be referred as "too close to call" by CNN anchors and analysts. "Too close to call" means the final result will be very close and that the CNN analysts may not know who won. For the races that are the closest, the CNN Election Analysis Desk will keep CNN viewers up to date on the state by state rules regarding automatic recounts and will report immediately on any official candidate challenge regarding the results or voting irregularities. E-mail to

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/02/projection.explainer/index.html


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Deanna Witmer on January 03, 2008, 09:05:52 pm
Yippee!  A vote against the status quo.


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Rage Against the Machine on January 03, 2008, 10:17:10 pm
How did Ron Paul place, anyone know?


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Volitzer on January 03, 2008, 10:55:26 pm
Let's see if there wasn't voter fraud.


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Jeremy Dokken on January 03, 2008, 11:33:53 pm
Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel and Joe Biden just dropped out of the race.
No one on the Republican side yet.


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Jeremy Dokken on January 03, 2008, 11:40:46 pm
Barack beat Hillary by nine points (same margin as Huckabee beat Romney). 

If you take the indendents and Republicans from his talley, he only wins by one point. This guy - Barack - is a guy who appeals to independents and disaffected Republicans, and, if he ends up being the nominee, would be the kind of leader you only see once in a generation (if that).


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Jeremy Dokken on January 03, 2008, 11:43:20 pm
How did Ron Paul place, anyone know?

Fifth. Behind:

Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
& McCain

He did finish ahead of Guiliani (Ron Paul got 10%, which isn't bad).


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Volitzer on January 03, 2008, 11:46:11 pm
Barrack is a CFR member just like the rest of them.  The Illuminati are just using girl power, fundie power and black power as tools to market their corporatocracy.

Let's not forget that Ron Paul is the only non-CFR candidate there is.


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Jeremy Dokken on January 03, 2008, 11:49:30 pm
Quote
Barrack is a CFR member just like the rest of them.

No, he isn't.  Get off the conspiracy crap.  Everything isn't a conspiracy, you know.  This guys has come up from nothing and is the only viable Presidential candidate out there.

Ron Paul is a Libertarian who believes that the government shouldn't be used to solve any problems. If government isn't used for that, why in the f*** are we paying taxes for?


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Trina Kennedy on January 03, 2008, 11:59:28 pm
No way would I vote for Ron Paul.  Just what we need - another old man who wants to outlaw abortion. What, being a conservative means being less government interference in everything but a person's right to control their own body?

What about the right to privacy? 

It just amazes me how many male politicians out there want to give short shrift to the idea of women's rights.   


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Volitzer on January 04, 2008, 01:32:46 pm
Quote
Barrack is a CFR member just like the rest of them.

No, he isn't.  Get off the conspiracy crap.  Everything isn't a conspiracy, you know.  This guys has come up from nothing and is the only viable Presidential candidate out there.

Ron Paul is a Libertarian who believes that the government shouldn't be used to solve any problems. If government isn't used for that, why in the f*** are we paying taxes for?

You had better research it before you cast your ballot.  The North American Union plan is real, the FEMA camps are real and the CFR's plans for America are very real.  You want to vote for fascism be my guest but the rest of us here want freedom and a less intrusive government.

Wreong again about Ron Paul.  He believes that local governments are there to solve local problems and the national government to stick with national issues.  This is how federalism works.

As for taxes the 16th Amendment was never properly ratified therefore Ron Paul wants to eliminate the IRS and all income taxes.  Governments get mroe than enough money via corporate taxes.  Also if there are states that have no corporate taxes coming in then they need to start making their state more economically viable.

It's amazing how you guys keep buying into the Democrats lies when they are bought and paid for just like the Republicans to fulfill a NWO agenda.

We've got 11 months before we go to vote, plenty of time to see where each candiate stands, their voting record, and more importantly their funding sources.

I just don't get how being a member of the CFR doesn't evoke a similar reaction as a politician being a member of the KKK??  Once a politician like David Duke was found out to have KKK connections he was dropped like a hot potato... yet we got all these candidates with CFR memberships and yet no forboding by anyone but the truly informed ??


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Jeremy Dokken on January 04, 2008, 08:14:47 pm
Volitzer,

That crap that the CFR is working towards a North American Union and a one world government is all right wing propaganda.  It was started by the John Birch Society, another conservative think tank, which opposed civil rights, went on Communist witch hunts and now gets it's jollies by attacking illegal aliens. What's the difference between the CFR and the John Birch Society?  Gee, I guess the difference is that your pals are at the Alex Jones website don't have any problems with the right wing organizations cause that's where their politics lie.

Having said that, I did check around and I found no evidence that Barack Obama is a member of the CFR.  He did give a speech before the Chicago branch of them some time ago, but he isn't a member.  If, by some chance, I missed proof of his membership to the CFR, by all means, please furnish it or stop making such (as you perceive them) nefarious claims.

As for Ron Paul supporting the rights of local government to regulate themselves, that doesn't score any points with me. Local governments are dominated by right wing neo-cobs, woman-haters who would pass all sorts of lunatic laws that benefit the rich at the expense of the many if they could.  That's why you need federal laws to insure the rights of  minorities.  Ron Paul is against a women's right to choose, though, and has said it time and again. 

As for there being no difference between Democrat and Republican, well, that is a complete fantasy. The Republicans are controlled by big business and religious zealots, while the Democrats try to work for the average person. Do they get all the things they promise passed?  Nope, but that is because you need sixty votes to pass anything more in Congress these days cause the Republicans/big business whores always filibuster things to stop them.  That will change after this year. Even if they don't get anything done, they are still way better on social issues.


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Jeremy Dokken on January 04, 2008, 08:25:33 pm
Ron Paul's Abortion Rhetoric  
 
Does Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul's strong language about abolishing a woman's right to choose put him at odds with the Libertarian party?  
 
Steven White | August 20, 2007 | web only 
 
 
 
In 1981 a Republican congressman declared:

Abortion on demand is the ultimate State tyranny; the State simply declares that certain classes of human beings are not persons, and therefore not entitled to the protection of the law. The State protects the "right" of some people to kill others, just as the courts protected the "property rights" of slave masters in their slaves. Moreover, by this method the State achieves a goal common to all totalitarian regimes: it sets us against each other, so that our energies are spent in the struggle between State-created classes, rather than in freeing all individuals from the State. Unlike Nazi Germany, which forcibly sent millions to the gas chambers (as well as forcing abortion and sterilization upon many more), the new regime has enlisted the assistance of millions of people to act as its agents in carrying out a program of mass murder.

The name of the congressman? Ron Paul. Yes, that Ron Paul, the long-shot GOP candidate for president running on a platform of pulling out of Iraq and slashing government spending. In 1981, he went on to argue, "Pro-life libertarians have a vital task to perform: to persuade the many abortion-supporting libertarians of the contradiction between abortion and individual liberty; and, to sever the mistaken connection in many minds between individual freedom and the 'right' to extinguish individual life."

Lest you think it's just a minor issue for him, consider the obscure fact that Paul has written not one but two books arguing for the necessity of a pro-life libertarianism: 1983's Abortion and Liberty and 1990's Challenge to Liberty: Coming to Grips with the Abortion Issue. And lest you think he has since changed his views on abortion, ponder what he's saying now. On June 4, 2003, speaking in the House of Representatives, Paul described "the rights of unborn people” as “the greatest moral issue of our time."

Other such quotes aren't hard to find. On March 29, 2005: " I believe beyond a doubt that a fetus is a human life deserving of legal protection, and that the right to life is the foundation of any moral society." Jan. 31, 2006: "The federalization of abortion law is based not on constitutional principles, but rather on a social and political construct created out of thin air by the Roe court." On that note, he has referred to a "federal court tyranny which threatens our constitutional republic and has caused the deaths of 45 million of the unborn." Just before the Ames straw poll, he came out with an Iowa ad touting his pro-life credentials, although in slightly more subdued terms: "I find it difficult not to defend a life a minute before birth just as I would defend that life a minute after birth. To me, it's recognizing the importance of life."

And for Paul, that's a deeply personal concern. His prior job as a doctor -- he has delivered over 4,000 babies -- plays an important role. In his New York Times Magazine profile of Paul, Christopher Caldwell writes: "He remembers seeing a late abortion performed during his residency, years before Roe v. Wade, and he maintains it left an impression on him. 'It was pretty dramatic for me,' he says, 'to see a two-and-a-half-pound baby taken out crying and breathing and put in a bucket.'"

Apparently it was dramatic enough to cause Paul to author H.R. 1094, a bill that declares that "human life shall be deemed to exist from conception," a standard Christian Right viewpoint. While Paul has written, "I have never been one who is comfortable talking about my faith in the political arena," this faith, in conjunction with his traumatic residency experience, seems to have left him deeply troubled by abortion in a way organizations like Focus on the Family would no doubt find familiar. "Many talk about being pro-life," Paul continued. "I have taken and will continue to advocate direct action to restore protection for the unborn."

But how to do this? Paul is also a fervent federalist, which puts him somewhat at odds with the über-pro-life movement that wants to abolish abortion rights nationwide. "I think we ought to return the issue to the states so that local opinions could better determine the specific regulations concerning this deeply personal issue," Paul said in an interview earlier this year. He previously argued that this is necessary to create "a pro-life culture," because federalization "has prevented the 50 states from enacting laws that more closely reflect the views of their citizens." Accepting this, he explained, means "we lost the ability to apply local community standards to ethical issues." On Nov. 17, 2005, he introduced H.R. 4379, the We the People Act, which would remove contested cultural issues like abortion from the jurisdiction of federal courts. On Feb. 6, 2006, the bill was referred to the Subcommittee on Courts, the Internet, and Intellectual Property. The congressional session ended without any further action.

Perhaps in part because of his stance on abortion, Paul has been referred to as a "selective libertarian." The Libertarian party's platform -- Paul was their 1988 candidate for president -- declares, "Recognizing that abortion is a sensitive issue and that people can hold good-faith views on both sides, we believe that government should be kept out of the matter, leaving the question to each person for their conscientious consideration." Kept out of the matter entirely? Sounds more pro-choice than a lot of Democrats and certainly out of step with Paul's professed views on the issue.

But maybe not. Not all government is created equal, it turns out. Shane Corey, executive director of the Libertarian National Committee, said in a phone interview, "Pro-life libertarians -- I'm one of them -- understand and feel that children in the womb should have the same rights and liberties that we enjoy." Pro-life and pro-choice libertarians ,Corey continued, agree that "it's not an issue for the federal government to address." The Libertarian party's official position is support of repealing Roe v. Wade and leaving abortion "remanded to the states." Paul's view, it happens, is pretty much the party line: It's okay to restrict abortion at the state level, just not the federal one. Respect for the rights of state government trumps the rights of women.

Ron Paul's staunch opposition to the Iraq War has won him surprising accolades from parts of the left frustrated with the Democratic party's resistance to removing the U.S. presence from Iraq. But even Paul's anti-war views aren't liberal. They're just old-fashioned isolationism. And when it comes to reproductive rights, sometimes it's hard to distinguish him from the broader Republican party he claims to fight so hard against. He may want to let states decide morality, but what happens when states decide to tell women they can't make their own decisions with their doctors? Just last year, South Dakota started down that path. Liberals were rightfully outraged, because they understand certain rights are too important to be subject to popular vote. But for Paul, if anti-choice conservatives in South Dakota had succeeded, it would have been considered a victory: one step toward creating a pro-life nation, not from the top down, but one community at a time.
 
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=ron_pauls_abortion_rhetoric

Now, no one likes abortion and I think that most people would agree that, if they have to happen, it should be done early.  Having said that, does anyone really want to put a guy in office with that strong of views on abortion that he would steal the right to choose from women?  All you need is one more judge to overturn Roe vs. Wade.  Don't think this guy wouldn't be eager to appoint one.


Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
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Title: Re: Obama wins Iowa on Democratic side, Huckabee wins Republican side, CNN projects
Post by: Rage Against the Machine on January 06, 2008, 06:05:35 pm
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